Saturday, 29 September 2018

Recessions and Their Necessity

All total, from 1776 to present.....we've accomplished (on the books) a total of forty-nine recessions.  Yes, it may be hard for some folks to accept but the odds are....if you are fifty years old today and will likely make to 75 old years old.....you will have lived through ten recessions. 

While folks do agree on the lengthly recessionary period of 1929 to the summer of 1938....being awful bad, it officially....on the books....represents two recessions.  Yep, that's a shock for most folks.  We actually started to come out of the 1929 recession in the spring of 1933.  There is some brief moments (months) where people perceive things improving.  But by spring of 1937....recession was back in full bloom, with two major factors: companies were stalled (seeing no real profits), and there was a massive attempt by the federal government to balance the budget (which overwhelmed Senators).

The recession of 1873?  No one ever goes back and discusses the five-year period where unit strikes and bank failures were regularly discussed in various newspapers. 

Should we fear recessions? No.  They are often tied to poor money management, bad decisions led by speculation, and insiders trying to gain against a market.  They are in a way.....a corrective period which needs to be like a 'magic pill' to flush your system, and get the 'bad' out.  You feel better after the flush, and that feeling will typically last five to fifteen years....before the next recession. 

The odd thing right now?  We are told that the last recession ended in the summer of 2009.  If you figure a 15-year cycle, then we are five to eight years away from this next 'flush' cycle.  The necessity to blame Trump on the next recession?  Right now....it's a 99-percent likely event.  But it's quiet possible that the Trump period will end, and we get a year or two into some Democratic period.....waking up to realizing speculation reached a major point and a flush was necessary.

A National Circus, Over a Misdemeanor?

It is a odd, and remarkable piece that I noticed this morning.  Someone went and asked the Montgomery County Police Chief (he'd be the 'law' for the area that Kavanaugh and Ford lived in as teens) about this whole discussion, and to offer a legal opinion.

What he said?  The Maryland law that existed in 1982 basically said that this type of assault and attempted rape (that Professor Ford hypes the story on).....were regarded as misdemeanors in 1982.....and by law at the time, it's all limited to a one-year statute of limitations.

So this hype and long discussion?  About a misdemeanor?  That's the real bottom line to this.

An entire circus atmosphere, over a misdemeanor?  Even if you found five people to vouch for Professor Ford's actual event, what exactly comes out of this?