Saturday 19 February 2022

Gut Feeling Over Canada

I would suggest six things likely to fall into play with Canada and the trucker activity.

1.  Delivery of food/fuel will continue but at a fairly reduced rate (truckers likely not exceeding 10 mph).  Wouldn't shock me if this slowdown started up in the next week.  

2.  I generally expect Quebec (the province) to have a meeting and determine that staying within the Canada framework is no longer possible.  Some 1-year process will likely be framed, and the exit to occur by early 2023.

3.  The longer that Trudeau stays on and continues this behavior....the higher the odds that he'll have to flee at some point (maybe to Jamaica or the US). 

4.  If  you end up arresting/detaining half the truckers in Canada....who do you expect to deliver goods?  Expecting the Army to pick up the role.....you might want to ask who will participate and who will decline the order.

5.  The potential for this to dissolve into a civil war?  I'd start to consider the potential.

6.  Finally, if you start to look around....it's  not only the Liberal Party in decline....the other three parties also appear to be less supported by the general public.