Tuesday, 28 January 2020

Bernie and 2,268

For Bernie Sanders to walk into the Democratic convention, and win on the first round....avoiding the brokered convention deal and 'special delegates?  He needs 2,268 votes from the primary system. 

He would need roughly 30 states (Hillary won 34 states and had 2,842 delegate votes). 

The odds here?  Out of the first four states currently....Iowa and New Hampshire are figured to Bernie-win situations.  From Super-Tuesday, I can count around seven states that Bernie ought to win.  I won't say this is guaranteed....but if he could pull out an Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri win....his odds start improving in a big way.

What hurts in this 2020 Democratic Primary period is the apparent lack of enthusiasm.  Maybe you can blame this on the debates, or just poor candidates. 

So what happens if Bernie is the first round winner?  I think a lot of normal Democratic voters are going to pause and open up a bottle of Jack Daniels......trying to see how they could agree with Bernie and his agenda.

The debates with Trump?  I think Trump would beg for debates like this....to discuss capitalism and socialism. 

So settle back and watch for 2,268 delegates.