Saturday, 9 May 2020

The Decade Ahead for New York and California

If one stands and looks at the next ten years, and tries to imagine the landscape in May of looks rather bleak for these two states.

First, both are looking at huge empty 'pockets' for tax revenue in 2020.  The only possible solution is a rise on property, sales and income taxes....likely to follow in 2021.

If you live in NY City, and had your expenses calculated to fit your pay-situation....this rise in taxes (I would go and suggest that your debt to the city and state will rise by 25-percent) will trigger a review of the necessity to live there. 

By 2022, a small number of city residents will have evaluated the oncoming problem, and made the decision to leave the city.  Somewhere between 2022 and 2025....the city leadership will realize that more people are leaving the city, than entering.

California's problem?  It's slightly that they have a revenue pot which demands higher taxes, but the growth of homelessness and crap-on-the-streets....will persuade some in the heart of Los Angles and San Francisco to question how the public nuisance problem can be resolved.

The census of 2030?  You can go and predict that enough will have left both lessen their 'burden' of legislative districts by two each (my humble guess). 

But then you add on the problem of meeting pension requirements....the escalating pot of revenue required to make the state pension programs work, and the likely odds of bankruptcy or massive taxes to solve the mess. 

In some ways, it's a sad story.  Both were the places where people dreamed of moving to, and now....both are the places where people dream of exiting.