Wednesday, 10 October 2018

The Haley-2020 Scenario

There are several pieces laying there to consider if Nikki Haley intends to rest for six months and prepare a campaign because Donald Trump won't run in 2020. 

1.  Bloomberg is said now to be preparing a 'machine' to run in the primary of 2020.  Cash-wise, he has the money to make the run.  But there are two curious factors here: (1) he'll be 78 in 2020 and (2) any suggestion of trimming back on the commerce market or job gains will destroy his campaign.  So Bloomberg has to portray himself as the 'good' version of Trump yet be fairly democratic in nature.

2.  The odds that Haley might select a Latino (NM's Governor), who happens to be a be her VP?  That's a possibility.  She could go and select a black conservative (West or Mia Love for example). 

3.  Trump in the wings to campaign for her?  That's likely to occur and would make a big deal of difference.

4.  The sales point of Haley?  First, don't screw with the economy.  Second, don't lessen any point that Trump laid out in 2016.  Third, accept the fact that the news media is working to get Bloomberg ahead. Fourth, emphasize the age of Bloomberg and appear jogging/working out.

5.  There's this odd conclusion of four years of Donald Trump.  If you laid out his ten big's safe to say that he's accomplished half of them right now (two years into this), and if he gets funding for the wall, with construction starting up....then the bulk will be done by 2020. 

Here's the thing....if you go into the thirty states that Trump won, suggesting Bloomberg....the only state that I think might be flipped to Bloomberg....would be Florida.  But if you end up with one-third of the Latino vote, there's probably three or four of the Hillary-won states from 2016.....that might flip to Haley.