Two Humble Thoughts

 1.  I now believe that nine Senate seats held by Democrats....will fall in November....mostly because of the Trump-effect.

My list? West Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Nevada, Michigan, Montana, and Arizona.

I'll even go and say the margin of Virginia's Tim Kaine against Hung Cao  (Republican candidate)....will be less than three points.  

What this means?  Assuming Trump wins....I suspect that two Supreme Court Justices will retire in spring of 2025 (Thomas and Alito).  

2.  Just odd on this graphic chart:

Since Biden took office...two trends separated, by 9-million people.

The chart shows the Household Survey data and the Establishment data.

Prior to Biden, they always tracked together.  

The Establishment data incorporates the payroll records of around 144,000 non-farm establishments and government agencies, covering workers at some 554,000 individual worksites.

The Household Survey?  The household survey includes farm/agricultural workers, self-employed folks whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from the establishment survey.  If you were on unpai leave from your business....you'd end up on  the Household Survey, NOT the Establishment data.

The missing nine million?  Well....the question is....are they employed on a second job (delivering pizza, stacking shelves, or pouring concrete on weekends)?