Monday, 25 July 2016

How To Screw Up the 2017 German National Election

I hate drawing road-maps for people, but in this case.....it's simply things to wonder about for the next fifteen-odd months:

1.  Watch thirty weekends of the next seventy weekends where some jihadist or crazy Syrian or mysterious Iraqi conduct some event which gets German national attention, and nothing seems to slow down the trend.

2.  Watch December of 2016 arrive and basically none of the accused sexual assault cases results in convictions with real jail time (out of more than 300 such cases sitting there potentially).

3.  Watch one out of every female voters in North Rhine Westphalia get so disenchanted that they actually vote AfD as a hostility vote.....which results in the spring of 2017 election shock of AfD "anti-immigration wave" Party with 25-percent of the state vote.

4.  Watch continual state-run news shocking the limited viewers they have with "let's get the facts before we tell the story" acting.

5.  Watch more of the general public asking if it's possible to make make one of the AfD platforms to either cut the TV yearly tax to state-run networks by 50-percent or cease it entirely.

6.  Watch the SPD try ninety-nine different ways of insulting Trump after November to get him into a anti-NATO or anti-Germany tirade.

7.  Watch the Koln cops and political folks screw up the December 31st New Year's Eve episode so much.....that another riot breaks out and 300 more women report sexual assaults.

8.  Watch Austria's re-vote in September of this year result in a right-wing win and an entire weekend of freaked-out German politicians who seem to be frustrated and dwell on this so much.....that the general public asks if we could possibly rush-up the national election of Germany a bit.

9.  Watch the Bundestag try to rig up some welcome-to-Germany package for 10,000 Turkish professors who were fired from their jobs in Turkey and the German university system suddenly saddled with trying to invent work for the new Turk immigrants while the public tries to understand what the end-result of this will be.

10.  Finally, watch the the summer of 2016 and summer of 2017 pool seasons across Germany end with over 300 groping incidents with 99-percent foreigners and the topic comes up on some German national chat forum, with no one in the forum willing to suggest what the problem might be.

The truth is.....the AfD folks ought to barely be getting five to seven percent of the vote right now.  Instead, depending on what state you poll.....it generally runs from nine percent to twenty-four percent.  If all ten of these events I described were to occur.....you'd get almost one-third of the national vote shifted around to the AfD.  It might not be enough to win, but it would trigger a really marginal coalition situation for four years and the public whining about lousy leadership and national accomplishments.


Should Have Been Bernie Versus Trump

I've spent about 90 minutes today looking over various Democratic National Party emails and all the various comments, and I've come to this one harsh opinion.

If this primary had been run totally neutral, with no interference by the DNC.....then Bernie Saunders would have beaten Hillary Clinton.

So, ask yourself this....is this fall election really about a fraudulent candidate who couldn't even beat Bernie Saunders fairly just slugging along with marginal strength against Trump?

It's a stupid question, but Bernie apparently was a lot more capable of winning against Trump, than Hillary.  And over the next decade.....we may all be asking questions about what would have happened if it had been Bernie versus Trump.

Sunday, 24 July 2016

Fixing Saunders

Sometime today (Sunday), the Democratic National Committee vice-chief (Brazile) will meet with the Bernie Saunders team in Philly to discuss the leaked emails and how the DNC itself helped to take Bernie down a notch or two.

In the real world....people would sue the DNC for millions and demand a recount.

But Bernie can't really go in that direction.

If I were Bernie, I'd have a list.

I'd want the DNC to pay every single remaining debt for the campaign, period, no exceptions.  This could amount to tens of millions.

I'd want the person at the DNC who orchestrated this to be fired immediately after the convention.

I'd want a personal guarantee of either an ambassadorship or cabinet post if Hillary wins.  Maybe going off to Sweden for two years would be a good way of starting retirement.

Finally, I'd ask for a Ford Mustang.....just to tease the DNC a bit.  Maybe they'd grant that....maybe not.

The question here....if the DNC hadn't done this gimmick....would Saunders have beaten Hillary Clinton?  The answer is unknown.

For some Saunders-supporters, there's anger about the DNC, and I'd would guess that 10-percent to 20-percent will just walk away....not voting this fall.  If they do that.....it's virtually guaranteed that Hillary won't win, and this slam against Saunders by the DNC....was another remarkable stumble for Hillary.

Thursday, 21 July 2016

No Power or Water

If you follow military news....ever since Friday night's coup episode in Turkey....they've had the power and water turned off at Incirlik Air Base (a joint American-Turk installation).

So, they've been running the main generator on base, and alternate generators at various significant sites around the base.  Significant parts of the mission are getting power.  The lesser significant points....like the barracks and base housing....no power.

In the summer period, with temperatures up around 95-degrees....it's a harsh deal.

No one from the Turkish side says anything much about this.  No timeline given for restoring power or water.

The base won't say how much water or fuel they have to keep running a mission.  My guess is that they probably have enough for three weeks....maybe four if they really stretch it.  If they ran some Berlin-airlift-like operation.....they could bring in some stocks of fuel and water each day to get by but the question is how long do you do something like this, and how far will the morale on base go after a couple of weeks of this?

Why?  My humble guess is that the Turks have added up everything and figured that it'd be ok if the Americans (and the Germans who are on the post as well) were to leave, on their own.  The Turks won't order them to leave, but they will make it harsh enough that the Americans will just pack up and go.  The Pentagon probably realizes this and is just shaking their heads. Three months.....six months....a year.....without power or electricity?

I've been on Incirlik a couple of times.....three months at one point.  It was one of those places that you really never wanted to be permanently stationed or spend a three-year tour there.  I almost regarded Honduras as one step below Incirlik, which ought to give the idea of daily life there.

The visiting quarters on Incirlik was a hotel for cockroaches mostly.  I checked in one day for a five-day TDY and probably killed forty cockroaches in the first hour.  I asked for another room, and killed twenty cockroaches upon entering it.  I ended up walking over to the BX....buying a can of cockroach spray, and spraying every inch of the room.

There were extreme rules on how to enter or exit the base.  If you didn't have permanent status, then you needed to have a pass to exit.

No matter where you went....everything was marginally working.

I had to go over to the airport one day to pick up some guy.....so I took a taxi.  As I sat down in the Turk taxi, I happened to notice a baseball size hole in the floor, and could observe the ground as we progressed.  The shocks were non-existent.....so you can guess how I felt at the end of a 15-minute ride.

I worked with a guy at Ramstein who was given a week-long TDY there and there were weather issues so he ended up landing at Ankara (about six hundred miles north of the base).  He looked at the situation and decided to just rent a car and drive down.  There were three folks in the group, so it made sense.  What the car rental guy didn't really say much about is that there are generally two ways of driving down.  One way was a generally decent two-lane road....and one was half-paved/half-chirt-rock (this one cut through some mountain pass and actually looked shorter on the map).  Naturally,, the Captain picked the marginal road.  What should have taken seven hours to drive, ended up around 16 hours.

 I can feel bad for these guys stationed there right now, and the reality of Sarge telling them that water and electricity might never be turned on again.  One might hope that the AF would give them some medal or something, but they don't have such a decoration for putting up with crappy living conditions.

The Trump/Pence Ticket

Election campaigns over the past hundred years in the US.....have delivered all kinds of odd pairings.  Most Presidential candidates would end up picking some key state's 'favorite' son, who was not really known in any of the other states, and the guy's two functions during the campaign was to hype up votes in his own state, and not do anything stupid.

Few remember these party tickets, or the upside/downside of picks for VP.

In terms of Trump and Pence?  I would make these four observations.

1.  Pence is a fairly competent guy, who can stand on his own in a debate.  He's not going to be some lightweight Dan Quayle-type character.  Befuddled journalists attempting to take him down in the debate with 200-word questions....will find that he's capable of throwing it back in their face.

2.  Pence probably will deliver Indiana to Trump via the Electoral College.  It's not a big deal but if things were kinda close, it might matter.

3.  My humble guess is that Trump mega-vetted Pence.  As much as some journalists will try to find tons of stuff to dump on Pence....it'll be things like he let his grass overgrow in the backyard, speeding tickets from the 1980s, and he likes watching ALF reruns when chilling out.

4.  For experience, you have a business executive and a governor.  In some ways, that's a positive.  It's not like digging up two senators for President and VP.

Next week, in Philly....the Democratic Convention will start up.  No one says that Hillary will announce her VP choice by this weekend.  Obviously, she ought to be down to the final three people by this point.

Another governor VP pick?  Unknown.

What has shocked me is the limited amount of trouble for the cops in Cleveland.  Will that play out as well in Philly?  Unknown.

On the positive side.....in about ten days....for those of you who really are fed up with politics constantly on TV for the past year....you might get a couple of weeks of marginal politics, before the campaigns really start to take off in late August.

Sunday, 17 July 2016

Republican Convention Prediction

The Republican Convention starts tomorrow in Cleveland and runs through Thursday afternoon.  My predictions for this?

1.  Cops are overwhelmed with riot potential.  At least 300 people arrested on Monday.

2.  Emergency meetings will be held by the city council, mayor and cops by Monday evening, with the anticipation of more riots by Tuesday afternoon.

3.  At least fifty convention members gone by Tuesday at lunch because of threats and hostile actions.

4.  News commentators using one-third of their coverage on the protest movement.  Shockingly enough, they are surprised when viewers turn off their coverage and go to Fox News for the convention.

5.  The RNC will meet by Wednesday morning and discuss alternate plans to rush up things and get everyone out by Wednesday night.

In the end, a bunch of folks....even some Democrats....will suggest that all this protest business really isn't accomplishing anything except galvanizing the general public to vote in a certain way (for Trump).  The term "thug" will start to be used when talking about the protest movement.....something that doesn't help them.

My suggestion in the future?  Pick either Vegas or Phoenix in mid-July, and let the protest thugs try to handle 115-degree heat.

UPDATE: 20 July, man, am I shocked.  Almost nothing of great significance has occurred at the convention in terms of a threat to keeping it open and active.  It's like someone whispered in their ear to cut it out.

My Observations of the 9-11 28-Pages Document

I sat down this morning and read the recently declassified 9-11 document which details possible Saudi involvement.  It is twenty-eight pages and you can read it yourself at this site.

Several details stand out.

There is money-laundering taking place within the US by the radicals and elements of the Saudi government (employees of the Saudis).  Maybe the government folks are doing this on their own.....maybe under orders.  There is nothing indicating a single US government official has acted to curtail money-laundering of this type.  This is a major issue.

An individual connected to the Saudi royal family has demonstrated enough behavior issues....that he should be restricted from the US.  So far, no US government official has acted to curtail his access.  This is a major issue.

One of the bodyguards for the Saudis in Washington.....was in contact with the 9-11 individuals.  It's a rather odd circumstance, and would demand more questions.....but apparently....NO one did nothing.  This is a major issue.

What you come to by the end of the 28 pages are three simple facts.

1.  While the government of Saudi Arabia wasn't organizing any of this 9-11 business....there were a lot of people who were connected to either the royal family or the offices of the Saudi government, who were doing their part to escalate the planning and help make it successful.

2.  There is more than enough evidence on the table to suggest that the entire Bush-Cheney team....absolutely didn't want to insult their Saudi friends.....so they looked the other way.  They can be regarded as fools, incompetent dimwits, or failed leaders....take your pick.

3.  For each one of these people that were allowed to walk away.....they've continued their life mission....to bring down civilization.  For whatever actions we did in the weeks, months and years after 9-11......we never disturbed the planning mechanism and support apparatus that made all this jihad business work.

In a way, I can go back and connect the dots now from Reagan, onto Bush I, Clinton, the Clinton Foundation, Hillary, Bush II, Cheney, and probably the Obama administration....they are all 'friends' of Saudi.

What happens now?  Mostly nothing, I fear.  Some individuals who've gotten campaign financing from the Saudi players.....need to stand up and admit this (even at the Senate level).  Some Saudis ought to be barred from entry into the US or EU.  Money-laundering needs to be brought into prospective and people prosecuted if necessary.

If you had an hour of time, it's worth reading the document and getting an idea of what was hidden for a decade.  Ask yourself at the end of the reading.....why did they have to hide this?  For those who say it's nothing.....then why bother hiding this information?