Wednesday, 26 October 2016

If Hillary Loses

While for several months, the news media have people to various polls and claims that it'll be a five to ten-point win for Hillary....some polls project a different story.

It is obvious now that more than ten-percent of blacks will vote for Trump.  Some polls suggest an all-time record of blacks voting for a Republican.  Some polls show middle-class Latinos might vote for Trump as well.

So the question here ought to be.....if it does did Hillary lose?

1.  Lack of charisma.  This was a major problem in the 2008 Presidential campaign, and noted by dozens of journalists.  As early as the Iowa Caucus in 2008....this was already being discussed.

2.  Wife of Bill.  The chief resume problem in 2008 was that Hillary didn't have anything beyond the Senate seat to show experience (3 draft laws written by her and passed into law, over a 8-year period).  A weak period as Secretary of State?  Ask Democrats what they remember of the four years and most just cite speeches.

3.  The email server was a brilliant idea.  But then it became obvious that she never handed all these emails over as law requires.  It just opened up a massive problem....never to be explained.

4.  Health issues.  Every single appearance in 2016 became an event where people speculated about her health.  The connection to Parkinsons was a daily thing.

5.  Bill.  Bill and his affairs are a problem which you can't explain away.

6.  The news media.  As much as they tried to help the end, they destroyed their credibility.

7.  The FBI and the Attorney General.  By avoiding any investigation or charges....they helped to lift her to epic proportions.  But that also made the 'fall' a greater deal because of their misbehavior.  No one trusts them anymore.

8. The Clinton Foundation.  Roughly 6-percent of their money goes to actual charity operations.  I read that last week.  The rest goes toward employees and operating costs.  It's just not a charitable operation.

9.  Services owed to foreign donors.  The more you look at what people paid and what they got in leaves a bad smell.

10.  A weakened DNC.  If you look across at national candidates.....who should have been preparing and moving ahead in the 2012 to 2016 one did much of anything.  It's like they were told that Hillary was it, and don't bother wasting time.  Bernie didn't get the message, and Bernie ran like a mad-man.

Monday, 24 October 2016

Just the Numbers Game

2008:  Candidate Obama put on charm and enthuiasm and got 69 million votes.  Against a marginalized campaign by McCain, who got 59.5 million votes.

2012: President Obama put on less charm and enthusiasm and got 59 million votes.  Romney got 57.1 million (2 million less votes than McCain).


This entire primary by Hillary has been less charm and less enthusiasm that we saw in 2008 or to think in relative numbers....I'd say at best....she might be able to see 57 million votes.  All Trump has to get what a weak McCain or Romney got, and he wins.

When you go back to the primary period of 2007/2008.....over and over, people talked about the lack of public appeal or charm.  It's what lost Iowa, and eventually got President Obama his nomination.

The odds of Trump getting less votes than Romney?  I just can't see this happening.  The question will....can Hillary pull a Obama-2012 election and get 59-plus million votes?  Does she have more charm and charisma than Obama in 2012?

Sunday, 23 October 2016

WikiLeaks Observation

The WikiLeaks people have to be sitting there and pondering reality.

They've released a ton of information over the past two months.  You would think that all of this would weigh heavily upon the Democrats in this election and harm Hillary greatly., it's almost nothing.

Why?  I think mostly because the networks, newspapers, and news blogs have almost no coverage.  You can go and view everything at the WikiLeaks site, but that means searching and trying to analyze each single email.  WaPo or NY Times doing the research?  No.....I'd take a guess that almost zero research is being done by them currently.

All of this, and absolutely no take-down?  Yeah, that's the humorous part of this story now.

Presently, I think that they could even come up with a video of Hillary Clinton talking to some crackheads from Atlanta, and promising them jobs with the state department, and I don't think anyone would care.

Who Would Putin Want: Trump or Clinton

If you sit and ponder on this long enough, you come to a surprising result.

If you were Russia's Putin, you'd want someone that would continually be in trouble with the American public, someone physically and mentally weak, and someone tied to continued scandals.

With Clinton's Parkinsons.....the following items are noted with the medication that you'd typically take: impulsive and compulsive behavior, hallucinations and delusions.

There is zero reliability that the Clinton Foundation will be taken down at the end of this election.....even if Hillary Clinton wins.  So I expect the inner workings of the foundation to be closely watched by the KGB and the email server to be penetrated by hackers on a daily basis.  Emails between Bill, Hillary and Chelsea?  At least a dozen Russian hackers will read them daily and deliver the best quotes back to Putin.

If you really wanted to get under Hillary's skin?  Go and time five or six events to occur at midnight, where the White House staff have to awaken Hillary and lessen her sleep schedule as much as possible.

So I generally don't believe the news media or the experts any longer.  The person that Putin would prefer is not Trump.  Although there could be one or two minor advantages with Trump.  The suggestion by Trump earlier in the year of lessening participation in NATO?  Putin might like that idea because he could push Germany around a bit and they wouldn't have the US standing in their corner.

President Clinton not grasping how Putin plays the game?  I don't think she's that keen or perceptive on foreign relations.  She wasted four years mostly just shaking hands and giving speeches.  Her state department time is utterly worthless.

As for the final key to the Putin desire for Hillary to win?  She's stuck to cellphones and easy email operations.  She has shown no tendency to upgrade or get smart.  It's all an advantage to Putin's intelligence service.

The news folks.....I think....are lost on this topic.

2018 Senate Race and the 2016 Presidential Winner

Just something to ponder about.

There are 33 Senate seats up for election in 2018.  Right now.....two Democrats are absolutely running for re-election.  One Republican has already said he won't run again and will retire.  Seven Republicans and twenty-one Democrats are in the "thinking" stage of running again.  And at the end of this entire group.....two independents.....with both likely to run.

Right now, the general belief by various news groups is that there might be a challenge thrown up against the Republicans in Nevada and Arizona.  I don't see this being affected by a President Hillary or a President Trump.  It might be suggested that the Supreme Court choices under a President Hillary would make some residents in these two states get hyper and negative against Democrats.

As for the remaining states, mostly under Democrats?  West Virginia, North Dakota and New Jersey might be states where a real Republican contender could win and take three more seats.  In this case, a President Trump....on the campaign trail in the three states might help that candidate.

But there is this odd feature of a President Trump.....a number of GOP players went negative on him during this election.  My humble guess is that there would be some pay-back.  In Arizona's case, Republican Senator Jeff Flake went negative on Trump.  So, Trump might come to campaign in the Republican primary for someone to replace Flake.

Currently in Nevada's Senate election situation (2016), the Republican running has gone negative on Trump, and found that he's now lost votes.  Enough to lose the election?  Yeah.

I think what you will see is a crowd of new faces in 2018, with several Republicans sent home (Senator Bob Corker of Tenn might be one who is replaced as well).

Friday, 21 October 2016

The Trio of Constitutional Crises

In roughly three weeks, I anticipate that Hillary Clinton will edge Donald Trump in the Electoral College with approximately 290-to-300 votes.  Six months ago, I would not have said that.  But in doing so.....a Pandora's Box of problems of issues will start up, and three significant crises will be set into motion.

First, within forty-eight hours, it'll become obvious that a combination of dead voters, illegal voters and double-voters were at the heart of several swing states.  Because of lack of media attention and the absolute desire of the GOP to move on (away from Trump), nothing will occur, and acceptance will seem to be the only drive for the nation.

State by state?  A totally different story.  By early December, well over 1,000 individuals will be pursued for voter-issues.  By January, another 10,000 will be given a summons to appear before a judge.  By April, I think we will top at 300,000 votes which were illegally cast, and the discussion among state attorney generals is that nation-wide, the total number will probably go above one million votes cast in an illegal way.

The Trump crowd?  They will not go quietly into the night.  They will not accept the GOP "lets-get-back-to-business" theme.  By spring of 2017, it's obvious that a Deplorables Party is being set up in several states, without the use of massive funding.....using YouTube and social media to carry their message to the public.  At the same time, the Bernie-crowd are discussing their options because they think Bernie was screwed over and the process is screwed up.

By the end of 2017, some GOP and Democratic strategists are now worried about the mid-term election in 2018 and the possibility of a different kind of race.  Together, they work to form a fake national agenda with hyped up fakeness.  The news media are part of the agenda, but in this case....because of a complete distrust of the news media.....they are unable to get the message out.

An odd thing occurs in the November 2018 mid-term election....with at least 30 House seats taken by either the Bernie-crowd, the Green Party, or the Deplorables.  

Using YouTube and social media, these non-GOP and non-Democrats are now carrying their message straight to the American people, and bypassing the news media.

So, onto crisis one:  the health of Hillary.  By month three of the Hillary administration.....the bobbing of the head, the decreased hours of work, and the disconnected eye-pattern will be obvious enough to pronounce her as having Parkinsons.

After a whirlwind trip to Europe, most European leaders will quietly pause and note that she has limited energy, limits herself to meeting time, and the head-bobbing is now a full-time thing.  They will shake their heads over this health condition and wonder what the heck is going on.

Behind the scenes, it becomes obvious that on every single Presidential trip, that Bill Clinton or Chelsea Clinton have to escort "mom" down from the plane.  As Bill's health becomes more marginalized in 2017, Chelsea becomes a full-time escort for "mom" and is a hired hand now of the White House.....with questions arising over what exactly she does.

By the end of 2017, it's obvious that Hillary's work schedule is limited to Tuesday through Thursday, a maximum of six hours a day.  Some insiders are now saying that Bill, Chelsea, and Podesta are actually running the White House and argue that it's a carbon-copy of Wilson's 1919 period.

By spring of 2018, the GOP sensing a weak structure around DC.....goes strongly against Hillary and demands a health physical be accomplished and they be informed of her condition.  She refuses, and they mount a vote to mandate that she must be seen by a doctor.  In an effort to send a clear message....the GOP refuse to attend the State-of-the-Union speech gimmick.

The first crisis will revolve around the health talk by the GOP.

The second crisis?  At some point, with this marginalized health and Parkinson's effects.....Hillary will stumble and fall....breaking a hip, shoulder or arm.  A concussion will be part of the episode, and the question will be when did the VP step in to fill her shoes, and the answer is....never.  Podesta will not allow such an acceptable event to occur, and thus trigger crisis number two, with Congress demanding that the VP step in while she is in the hospital and in a fragile health situation.

The third crisis?  By late 2019, Hillary will decide to run in the 2020 election....shocking most with her marginalized health and limited schedule of work.  Kaine will quietly step to the side and refuse to be VP in this situation.

The 2020 election unfolds with the GOP, the Democrats, the Bernie-crowd party, and the Deplorables Party all active.  The 270 electoral vote minimum to win the election?  Oddly, The Bernie candidate wins one state, and the Deplorables with their candidate takes four states.  Without those five states, the GOP and Hillary are unable to reach the 270 point.

So, the Electoral College meets....conducts their job, and there is no winner.

Onto the House and the method written by the Constitution.  Oddly, there are fifty states and one must get 26 of the state's votes.  Because of the actions in 2018, getting 30-odd Bernie-Party people/Deplorable Party people into the certain key states.....we now observe the third crisis for the Constitutional in full detail.  For the entire month of December and into mid-January, they are unable to get a candidate elected because of the two additional parties.

The cherry on this cake?  Putin, along with China....will sense a weaker leadership in place with President Clinton and move to challenge her on all fronts.  The President is unable to convey any leadership beyond just speeches, and the public scratches it's head over this limited ability demonstrated.

The news media in all of this?  Because of their "fairness" in reporting for 2016....they will be surprised at the viewership declining and newspaper subscriptions continuing a negative trend.  Even Fox News will find that their crowd have packed up and given up hope with their "brand".

If you think this period of the last nine months were the "storm", and things return to a norm in are seriously mistaken.  The real "storm" has yet to even start.

Thursday, 20 October 2016

NFL Ratings Down

It's an interesting story which I've sat and reviewed at least a dozen times over the past month.  Various news outlets publish reports almost weekly now....chatting over the numbers.  Depending on who you view or read from.....the ratings are 10 to 20 percent down from the average.  For a TV product, it's not good news.

Why are the ratings down?  I've seen an amazing number of creative explanations.  Some say it's the political season and people are handcuffed to that.  Some say it's over-saturation.  Some point toward too many TV options.  Almost no one wants to admit or say it's Kaepernick and his knee-down on the national anthem situation.

Oddly, no one seems to want to interview real people.  That's the curious thing about the whole story.  I've yet to see some sports journalist stop five people in an airport and confirm that they are not watching the NFL much, and then asking why.  They really don't want to ask this public this question because if it comes back that 99-percent of the public are avoiding the NFL games because of the flag and anthem business (leading straight back to Kaepernick).....then things are now permanently screwed up and business won't return to normal.

How corrupted or screwed up is news?  On a scale of one to ten.....I'd give it 'seven' or 'eight' now.  For no one to ask this one simple question amongst a dozen guys in a sports just doesn't make sense.

What happens after the season ends?  If the Super Bowl ends with a lesser TV audience (even just two or three percent), it will scare the NFL to a great degree, and the franchise owners.  Contracts for 2017?  If I were the manager and my product is now a lesser product.....I'd cut pay....maybe by 10-percent.  I'd let the players know the situation and prepare for some kind of strike action....just to make matters worse.

You just shake your head over how this all occurred.