Monday, 16 January 2017

Years From the Smoke Settling

It's been weeks since the election ended, and virtually none of the  'circus' activity has ended....which kinda amazes me, but this is the burn-the-bridges-type of mentality and no one seems to worry about 2020 or 2024.

This morning, I read that Senator Feinstein (D, Cal) commented that "the future of America is at stake".  I'm just shaking my head.  To be honest.....the future of America has been at stake for almost 88,000 days or 240-odd years.  There's not a single day that passes when the question hangs over the Constitution and nation itself.

Things are bad enough now that Pasadena’s All Saints Episcopal Church has said that they can't possibly pray for the health or future of Donald Trump, because it'd trigger mental stress and complaints among it's membership.  GOP membership in the church?  I'm guessing most have already left, and the handful that remain....will find another church operation within days.  They might as well make up some list of things or people that they won't pray for.....like Putin, the Dallas Cowboys, or anyone that seems to be unlikable under the eyes of the Lord.

Yesterday, I read that there's this plan of the new Trump administration to find a bigger press room for these press conferences.  The current room?  It'd hold a max of 50 folks.  It seems like that Trump's folks have suggested that they can find another area of the White House Compound or nearby....where you could throw 500 folks in the room.

This triggered some hot emotions with the corporate news folks (the networks, WaPo, and NY Times).  Apparently, there's this fear that the normal insider press folks....probably around twenty who occupy the two rows of the current 50-room....that international reporters, small-town newspaper journalists, and even bloggers will now occupy the room and potentially ask questions.

Yeah, by doing this.....you'd restack the deck of journalism reporting on the President, and undo the filtering process of the big networks.

The bridge-burning crowd?  At some point, you need to chill out....calm down, and think of a strategy that brings non-urbanized neutral or Democratic voters back to the old party.  You don't have decades to settle on this policy...at best, you have twelve months to form the policy and start to implement a shift on the voting public.  This Trump-warfare that everyone seems engaged upon....will not draw these neutral voters back.  Thinking that anger will shift those people back?  They were angry at your party's strategy for more than a decade, and you didn't seem to grasp that fact.

Settle back and prepare for a long, long period of Democratic Party recovery.  Some kids who are going to be part of that recovery....are just in the first-grade at present.

Saturday, 14 January 2017

The Other Side of the Dossier Story

This week, the BBC (generally reliable) did some research on the Trump dossier story and came to realize that former MI6 007-secret agent man Christopher Steele had his company hired (Orbis is the company name) to do a research project for Jeb Bush during his disastrous 2015/2016 campaign period.

What happened when this story came out noting Steele?  He disappeared.  His company only says that he's taking some time off and he'll comment later.

There are some questions here....since Jeb came out in the middle of the week and said he was not the one to sponsor this.

1.  When Steele reappears and chats on this topic.....who will be the one that contracted Steele?  Does it go straight back to Jeb and his inner circle, or some outsider-turned-Jeb sponsor?

2.  When they contracted Steele, where exactly did he get his info on Trump?  Did he actually get it from the Russians?  Did he get from internal MI6 files?  Did he get from some other 007-secret agents-turned independent contractor?  Did he get it from the Turks?  Did he get it from the CIA folks?

3. When the contract was fulfilled.....how did they pay Steele?  Did they pay on the table and was it Brit-taxed?  Or did they pay via an off-shore company, to a off-shore bank account?

My guess is that Steele is sitting there now with a ton of pressure by the folks who contracted him to avoid telling their participation in this episode.  Course, he'll take the fall for them....perhaps....if there's some more cash involved.   But the Brit tax folks might be very curious how he got paid and if this was all legit income.

The sad thing is that this might all come back to Jeb and his inner circle who crafted this idea and then realized how crazy it was....trying to just pretend it didn't exist.  Then McCain, always outside of the circle, heard about some report and got someone with some money to buy a copy of it.  Ask McCain what he or his associate had to do to acquire the dossier.....did they spend money?  My humble thinking is that some more money crossed over....again, perhaps lacking Brit taxation.

The dossier in the end....will brand a couple of GOP folks as 'problem-children' and cause the party to invent a method of kicking them out.

The Thing About Dossiers

This week, with all this chatter on Trump's dossier business, and the secret 007-agent in the middle of this business....I sat and pondered.

This Trump dossier is said to be 35 pages long.

Just so we are grasping this whole dossier business....if the Russians had this one dossier on Trump, how many other dossiers exist in their archive?  One-hundred thousand?   Three-hundred-thousand?  A million?  Twenty million?  One could sit there and speculate on this.

The Bill Clinton dossier?  It's probably well into the 100 page length....detailing his women, his choice of hotels, his bedroom antics, etc.

The Harry Reid dossier?  It probably details exactly what happened with the black eye business, his Vegas property dealings, and various women that he might have at least bumped into.

The Richard Nixon dossier?  Probably upwards to 400 pages long...discussing his booze, his conflicts, and movie selection.

The Romney dossier?  Probably 1.5 pages long....mostly talking about his investment selection, suggesting an addiction to Orange Crush, and a list of Disney movies that he's watched.

VW's former CEO Winterkorn?  He's probably in the group and got a forty page  dossier.  It mostly details private life details, explanations on the diesel engine conflict, and his preferred alcohol.

Hillary Clinton?  It might be 200 pages long, and contain mostly stuff about the Clinton Foundation, arguments with Bill, and her health information.

Oddly enough, there's probably even a dossier for CNN's Anderson Cooper (probably twenty-six pages), and NBC's Lester Holt (probably eight pages).

Chancellor Merkel?  She's probably got the old DDR dossier, and a newer German dossier....between the two of them....maybe a hundred pages of material.

Why suggest all this dossier business.  Years ago, I was reading a short news piece of a Air Force pilot who'd gotten out and turned into a commercial pilot.  He'd found this lucrative contract for a cargo transport company.....operating in Africa.  This was during the period of the Angola conflict....where Cubans and Russians were part of the landscape of this chaotic time.  The pilot one day....ended up being captured while over this region.  I forget the details of his crash or forced-to-land situation, but he ended up in Angolan hands. He was moved around and ended up in some jail-like situation. An interview-turned-interrogation started up.  He was set to only suggest he was a plain old commercial pilot with no real interest in the conflict and no military background.  Oddly, the Angola crew had all this information on him....detailing out his military period, assignments, etc.  The only way they could have gotten this?  He figured the Russians had a dossier on him.  It's crazy, but it could be millions of people have dossiers on them in some Russian archive.

So while the news people freak out over Trump's dossier, and the odds are that it's a fake dossier, created by some 007-secret agent guy.....if you accept the dossier story, then shouldn't there be a Hillary dossier and a John McCain dossier?

If I were the Russians and this whole dossier thing bothered me, then I might suggest....lets make things interesting.  Every seven days for the next year....release one of these dossiers.  I'd pick Republicans and Democrats.....maybe even some journalists....perhaps even some entertainment folks.  Let's make this whole worrisome business more interesting.

You have to admit....you might be interested in what Ted Kennedy's dossier contains....or Lady GaGa's dossier.  

Friday, 13 January 2017

A Tale of the Map

In general, you can go and write a thousand-page book on how Hillary Clinton screwed up and Donald Trump laid out his best chances.  But why make this so difficult?

I sat and started looking at county-by-county voting voting over the past couple of decades.  There's something that you start to notice since the mid-1990s (after Bill Clinton's second election)....the Democrats have lost a large chunk of non-urban counties to the Republicans.  Not just one election, but election after election.

This map to the right, 1996.  Blue - Clinton.

Bill Clinton took and crafted the theme or Democratic message to fit the general and ordinary Democratic guy, and those leaning that direction.

This 2000 election?  Gore still took a large segment of urbanized counties but look at how the blue is disapparing across non-urban areas.  Gore went to more of a special group or interest area, and began to lose the general interest of regular Democrats or those who leaned that direction.

Did Gore realize this?  I doubt it.  He hired people who probably had paper strategies laid out for a decade and had a chance to enhance to bring new people/voters into the circle.  They didn't necessary worry about the regular plain-old Democratic voter.

You could see Gore watching this slip and just say it was a one-time thing....no big worry.  Things will change and just slip to the next strategy in 2004.

Well...it didn't work that way.

As much as Kerry did come close to beating Bush, note that the blue counties actually got smaller.  It became a more urbanized vote.  Massive number of votes in Memphis, Atlanta, L.A, New York, Boston, Detroit, Chicago, etc.  In the heartland, much less so.....a lot less so.

After 2004, the DNC should have awaken and asked how the county thing is going wrong and a new message should erupt out of analysis.  Well....it didn't come.

Obama did win in 2008, but take a look at the red across the board, in non-urban communities.  Obama was able to get minority voters who rarely show up on election day....to show up.  His enthusiasm was what made the difference.  If it'd been Hillary Clinton in 2008?  I suspect a few less blue counties and McCain might have come extremely close to beating her.

Democrats realizing the county problem in 2008?  No.  No grasp....no change.

In 2012, most of the blue counties were retained but he started to lose some of the counties from the 2008 episode.  Enthusiasm was less so. Did the Democrats realize the problem?  No.

The push stayed on special groups (minority, environmental, gay-marriage crowd).

So you come to the final graphic....2016.

Lots of blue?  No.  Lesser blue than 2008 or 2012.

Red dominates the counties.

There's a theme here which doesn't require rocket-scientists or Einstein-like strategists.  The Democrats are locked into a unique position.  They need a sharp-talking black guy with great speeches to come back for 2020 or 2024....to give them a chance of winning.  Or, they need to go and reexamine the regular Democratic guy in the heartland and develop a message that brings him back into the voting apparatus.

You would think that people would be talking about this and trying to rebuild the Democratic Party to be less an urban-machine and more of a typical American-machine.  But obviously, the crowd at the top today....does not share in that dream. They've lost the core of their future, and now have few, if any, options.

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Spiral of McCain

After reading through all of the Trump dossier talk....which all leads back to Senator John McCain....I've come to a moment of reflection.

McCain reminds me of some 007-secret agent guy.....always on some plane and meeting exciting people (like those ISIS folks back in May of 2013 when he just happened to be in Syria).

Course, in the real story of James Bond, he was always up against some really bad characters at SMERSH.

SMERSH seemed to always be crafting some world domination theme.  One week hitting on the world economy, then shifting to gold manipulation, then flipping over to water control, and then ramping up operations to steal nuke material.

In the case of James Bond....he worked against SMERSH, day and night.

In the case of Senator John McCain....he seems to be an integral part of SMERSH....maybe a puppet....maybe just a pawn.

If I were looking for that event that occurs about every hundred years where the GOP meets and fires one of it's members, I'd say this is likely one of those approaching moments.  McCain would be better off at this point as a Democrat or Independent.

Wednesday, 11 January 2017

Parody: How America Was Brought to It's Knees by Russia

Note: Parody.

Yes, somewhere in the late 1950s....Russia, then the Soviet Union, made a wise decision to faciliate a change to the United States.  It would secretly bring 300,000 Soviet spies, educated to speak English and act American into the United States via Mexico.

These 300,000 Soviet spies would easily cross the border and move out to particular states.  In those states, the chief mission was to ensure quick and easy addition to voting lists, and be registered voters.  Because of the incompetent behavior of American voting officials....the Russians were able to register not just once or twice, but in numerous cases....were registered as many as four or five times.  So in effect, the 300,000 agents were 1.2 million in voting strength.

As time went by, fifty of these Soviet spies were able to infiltrate the voting lists agencies and begin phrase two....registering dead people.  In some states, the Soviet plan of keeping 100,000 dead voters on the lists proved very successful.

By the late 1960s, the Soviet spies could admit that they were able to manipulate at least 1.8 votes in US elections.

The real success of the program?  1968....helping Richard Nixon win the election by basing a significant number of the 300,000 spies in five southern states and ensuring southern Democrats voted for Wallace and helped to edge out Humphrey.

The 1976 election required the Soviet team to move almost 150,000 of the agents to several key southern states, double and triple-registering them as well....to ensure Jimmy Carter's win.

In 1988, came the first failure of the Soviet program....moving almost 250,000 of the Soviet agents over the mid-west and north-east....they were simply not able to get enough votes generated for Dukakis.  It was a massive failure for the Russians and the chief of the department was forced into retirement.

With the wall collapsing and changes coming....the Soviet Union was no more.  Russia would emerge and decide the program had value....it was retained.

In 1992, with a new strategy and a new boss for the program, the Russians were able to ensure nine states went to Bill Clinton.  Awards and personal recognition occurred within the program for that success.

With ease in 1996....even with the Monica affair brewing....the Russians ensured the success of Bill Clinton again.

In 2000, the Russians awoke to realize a massive pro-Bush element existed against their candidate (Gore).  All 300,000 agents were directed to spread out to all fifty states....something that had not been done before.  For Florida....less than 2,000 agents were placed, and they were only able to generate triplicate votes.  It was a massive failure for the program, and the chief was fired.

In 2004, the Russians attempted a anti-Bush campaign, by moving 200,000 of their agents into the Rust-Belt and trying to manipulate a total of 1.1 million votes.  This was again a failure.

In 2008, the Russians brilliantly played the game out by ensuring the incompetent McCain was the chief candidate against their chosen "winner" (Obama).  At least 150,000 Russian agents were in Florida and helped to ensure the win for Obama.

Minimal effort was exercised in 2012 with the Russian agents.

For the 2016 election?  The Russians fanned out across four states, and were controlling approximately 1.5 million pro-Hillary votes, which included triplicate-voters and dead voters.  In bitter shock, the Russians came to realize two days before the election that they simply couldn't swing enough votes in four key states.  Attempts were made to move 10,000 agents into place and get registered at the last minute, but this was a failure.

The Russians sat in shock....their entire effort to bring Hillary Clinton into the White House....a failure.  Very quickly, the boss of the program was fired and replaced.

For 2020?  The Russians intend to use the US news media, fake news, and the aging 300,000 agents for one big blitz against Trump.  One of the weak points of the program is that the 300,000 agents are growing older and complain about this continual directive to move every four to eight years to manipulate particular states.  The Russians now realize that they may have to go and recruit a whole new team, and this is causing tension in Russia that they'd have to give up 300,000 of their younger citizens for this key program.

Yes, it is a bitter failure to realize within hours....Trump will take a position that the Russians fought so hard to prevent.  It should be Hillary Clinton.....someone that they could easily manipulate.  But in the Russian mind, 2020 is only four years away and maybe Hillary can be brought back again.

Parody.

Tuesday, 10 January 2017

Mute and Fast-Forward

I sat through a three-minute report from German state-run/public-TV news last night....the lead-in big story....which was....Golden Globe bash by Meryl Streep on Trump. Yes, from the fifty-odd big stories of the day....that was news number one for the German public at 9:45PM.

I sat and pandered upon what lecture or advice I generally take or don't take from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take sports-betting advice from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take car recommendations from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take vacation advice from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take moral recommendations from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take airline advice from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take vacation suggestions from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take health advice from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take Doctor-Phil suggestions or mental health advice from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take soda, wine, coffee, beer, or whiskey recommendations from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take camping, surfing, or poker advice from Hollywood-types.

I generally don't take advice on septic tanks, darts, chainsaws, clogged arteries, Microsoft, new cars, used cars, Hitler-movies, dog food, facial cream, warts, hockey, dandruff, rashes, bingo, kiwi-fruit, pickles, monster movies, Vegas hotels, folk songs, breakfast menu options, NCAA bowl games, or witchcraft.....from Hollywood-types.

If some Hollywood-type wins some award and wants to make some short "I'm grateful" speech....then fine or splendid.  But if this "I'm grateful" speech turns into something less than cute, well....there's that mute-button and you just apply it.  After you've done that a while for one person....you get used to it, and you hit the mute-button everytime you see them on the air.  With the fast-forward button, you can shift through a 90-minute movie with some mute-candidate and wrap up that movie in 30-odd minutes.

Maybe that's the only way to make sense out of this crazy world.....mute and fast-forward, and just pretend they aren't there.