Thursday, 19 July 2018

November 2018 Predictions

This is my list of seven predictions for the November election business:

1.  Joe Crowley is on the NY ballot, not as a Democrat.  He will in fact....beat Ocasio-Cortez and the GOP candidate....probably with 50-percent or more of the local vote.  The Democrats will be faced with a problem because he wants Pelosi's leadership chair, but he's not a pure Democrat anymore.

2.  From my homestate, Kay Ivey wins the election for Governor with near sixty-percent of the vote.  It'll be her last election, and set into play various folks planning for the 2024 election.

3.  Four Democrat Senate seats flip to the Republicans, and one Republican Senate seat flips to the Democrats: Losers.....McCaskill, Heitkamp, Nelson, Donnelly, and Heller (R).  I also think Tester (D) of Montana probably will lose.  So you can figure a four-seat gain (on the best scenario) for the Republicans. 

4.  The 3-way split for California will not be on the ballot.  You already see court challenges to remove it, and I think the whole attempt is doomed at this point.

5.  House situation?  I will go and predict three GOP House members losing their election, but at least five to eight Democrats who were considered 'safe'....losing because of Democratic voters leaving the party structure. 

6.  All of this leads toward a strategy meeting for the Democrats and discussions over how to bring voters back into the party.  The chief idea?  The big 2020 candidate will have to be either black or Latino.  It can't be Hillary.

7.  The Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin race.  Well....six months ago, I would have said she had a safe election and easily won for the Democrats.  Things have flipped, and I might go suggest that even a 6th GOP Senate seat win-plus-up is possible.  All of this, with Corker and Flake (the two fake GOP guys) out in January. 

All of this will worry Democrat Senators who have to run in 2020.  It's a smaller group than what you have today, but if they were to lose another three would be an incredible problem for long-term strategy-planning.