Saturday, 31 March 2018

The Future and David Hogg

For three weeks, I've watched this media event with David Hogg and associates on the anti-gun agenda.  So this is my prediction.

There's a basic group here.....Hogg, Alfonso Calderon, Sarah Chadwick, Emma Gonz├ílez, and Cameron Kasky.  And from the same school....all part of some national 'trend'.

I think all will find themselves in different college settings, continuing the agenda, and their sponsor (whoever is paying for things behind the curtain) has a fairly comprehensive plan written out and will start by the end of 2022.  Hogg will have a foundation of some sort, with endorsements of the Hollywood crowd.

Hogg and team are there right now to sow a political agenda with 14-to-18 year old kids.  As 2023 comes around, with the Democratic team onboard....a national anti-gun agenda, with the right candidate will start up and the whole plan will circle around getting 50 or more Senators, a majority of representatives, and the right President....then to write the anti-gun law into effect.  While the Supreme Court might be favored in the beginning to counter this swing.....you can figure over an eight-year period....they will correct the balance, getting three to four appointments into the Supreme Court. 

All of this...set to 2024 to 2032....to swing the anti-gun agenda into place with the youth vote. That's my prediction. 

Friday, 30 March 2018

Gun Control Spiral

Over the past couple of years, I've sat and spent a fair amount of time observing discussions over gun control and the ultimate desire of some folks to have a national database of gun licensed individuals and individual weapons. It's an interesting discussion, but you rarely reach a point where practical applications fall into place and you understand the doomed approach to this idea.  So these are my ten observations over how registration is a failed topic.

1.  To make any system work, you need everyone to have an ID, and to use that form of ID in the process of some national registration effort.  However, if you had such an ID....wouldn't the logic fall into place that the same national ID....could be used for voting as well?  Oh....yeah, that's one reason that this will never occur.

2. If you marched every gun owner down to register their guns....could you demand they show an ID?  Presently, you can vote without an ID....so couldn't you register a gun without an ID?

3.  If you had a household in Tennessee, and held a cabin in Colorado...with weapons at each location....could you hold two registrations?

4.  Who would have access to this registration?  Your wife?  Your local county judge?  A federal prosecutor?

5.  If you loaned four hunting rifles out.....would you have to sign some paperwork to show that 'Buddy' (your friend) for the next six months is off hunting in Montana and has your four rifles?  Would Buddy have to be registered?

6.  Would antique weapons be treated the same as modern weapons?  Would a non-functional gun (without a firing pin) be included in this registration?  Would fake guns (say on Hollywood lots) be forced onto a registration database?

7.  If your weapon registration were missing one number on the serial number.....how big of a deal would this be?  Go look at the hassle with car registrations when you discover some old dune buggy you bought in 1972....is missing a digit upon selling it....how much hassle is it to fix the serial problem?

8.  Would homeless people, without an address, be able to register a gun and just say they live under the Quincy Street Bridge?  If some nutcase came in and attempted to register six imaginary weapons, with real serial numbers....what's to stop the guy?

9.  If your wife popped up and got into a divorce state of mind.....accusing you of some fake assault....how quick would the cops show up to claim your weapons using the database?

10.  When the day comes that someone stands up and admits that some hacker got into the weapons registration database, and they might have screwed up 300,000 records, or added 750,000 imaginary weapons into the database....what exactly can you do to remedy this?  A national inventory?  Once you admit your database was compromised....what's to prevent the same repaired database from being compromised again tomorrow or next week.  The database from that point on....is a fake database and no one is going to cooperate.

Lack of Numbers

I read a piece today that suggested that 59.3 million households in America.....hold a minimum of one weapon in the house or apartment.   So I went and researched....how many households exist in America, and the number presently is set near 126-million households.

I sat and looked over both numbers and tend to question them.

For example....when you reach the 126-million households....are you counting dorm rooms, and barracks rooms....as a household? 

Are you counting RV units parked on long-term beach fronts in Myrtle Beach, SC.....as a household?

Are you counting a retirement village apartment....as a household?

I worked with a guy years ago who owned a RV trailer which was permanently parked on the outskirts of Las Vegas....while he lived in Tucson.  He'd fly up to Vegas on Friday night, and stay till early AM hours of Monday....to fly back to work on Monday morning.  In my mind, he had two households.

As for the households holding weapons?  I don't really buy that 59-million number.

In the county where I grew up in Alabama....I'd take a guess that 95-percent of households there....have a minimum of one weapon.  In fact, I'd take a guess that 70-percent hold a minimum of two rifles, and a pistol.

In the state of Montana?  I'd take a guess that it's near 90-percent of the households which hold a single weapon or more.

So if these numbers thrown around by the news media are bogus....what does that say?  Some would suggest that we need licenses and true government auditing....in order to control things.

But if you went that far....how much would it cost?  Billions?  And would people admit anything now?  I have my doubts.  Just getting people to admit how many bank accounts they have....would trigger people into deceiving the government. 

Wednesday, 28 March 2018

The Census and the Magic Question

Up until the 1950s....it was a regular part of the Census....asking people if they were American citizens.  This week....Trump came up and said that the question would be added back into the system, and upset a bunch of folks.

What likely will happen?

'Bob' will show up at the door and ask the question as part of the Census, and one of two things will happen with foreigners.  Either they will answer correctly and note they are not a citizen, which will get them off 'bean-count' list.....or they will answer that they are a citizen (basically lying). 

There are a couple of problems that then play out.  Lets say that this record is publicly noted somewhere in the digital world, and the Cruz-family at such-and-such address said they were American citizens but they lied.  Well....when they reach some stage of getting offered citizenship....some idiot might go and pull up this Census record, and hinder the guy's plan of getting US citizenship.

Long term, you could see several million folks putting themselves at jeopardy. 

There's also the problem of just refusing to answer the door, and the Census guy just says fine.....we won't count these folks.

The idea that some states will lose population counts?  That's the odd thing about this discussion.  It's possible that 10-percent of the California population is non-citizen.  If you don't count them....that diminishes the state population and they might lose two or three House seats.  The same is true for Florida, and possibly Texas.

The Supreme Court getting into the middle of this?  If they decide to make it their affair....they forever have this door open on future questions.  I'm not sure that they really want such a door existing. 

By making this such a big deal.....you might find some cynical folks who decide to admit falsely to the Census guy that they are Mexican citizens, when they are actually Americans.....just to stir the pot and create an even bigger mess.  Imagine half-a-million Americans claiming that they are North Korean citizens, just as a joke.

The Value of a Degree

I was reading a piece yesterday that went into detail what some companies are facing as they go out and hired new graduated college students.  They found that the 'kids' were lacking in various skills that they should have acquired in college.  Mind you....we are talking about four-year university graduates.  The piece discussed the problems of analytical concepts, project design, time-line construction, teamwork, etc. All of these....used to be taught at least in some marginal way, and you'd finish college with a basic understanding how your skills would fit into a commercial company.

The humor part of this....which is left out of the news piece....is that this 21 or 22 year old 'kid' is standing there and all happy that HR hired him for some $40,000 a year job, and then he likely discovers the the next week as he shows up.....he's automatically signed up for five seminar episodes taught by some fifty-year old individual from some private firm, and discussing this mystery thing called 'project management'. 

A whole week will pass with 'Professor Bob' talking about this big science agenda called project management.  The kid will be amazed at all the facets and benefits of project management.  Then at the final hour of the class....the 'kid' will ask why they don't teach something like this in college?  'Professor Bob' will just grin and tell the kid that in the 1970s and 1980s....it was a regular part of any business degree, and that they've weakened the whole program to such an extent....that your degree is mostly worthless.

A week or two will pass, and another three-to-five day seminar will occur.  Over that year, the company will waste at least thirty days of work production in getting the 'kid' to a level that they are beneficial to the company. 

So the question is....is a bachelor's degree really worth the $50,000 to $90,000 that it cost today?  If you get hired and they automatically revalue the degree to a three-quarter situation....did you get cheated out of the full value of the education?  Does the college even care?

Monday, 26 March 2018

The 12-Cent Interview

I sat and watched through part of the Sixty Minutes with Stormy and Anderson Cooper, and then I stopped to look at a frame picture of Anderson Cooper with perfect sized eyes...flip forward 3 seconds, and here is Stormy....with seriously dilated eyes.

What gets you to that stage?  Typically cocaine or opiates.

Then this odd thing comes up in this taped conversation.....some ten-month 'affair'....yet she suggests only one bedroom romp.  Ten months.....one romp?

In Alabama, you'd tell this story over at the general store, and someone would typically stop you and ask if you pulling their leg.  Yet Anderson kept looking real intent and glazed over.....ready to believe just about anything.

The other odd thing....you come to some point of pinpointing all this stuff that Anderson is getting out of her, and then you come to realize....well, we aren't talking about 2016, or 2015, or 2014, or 2013, or 2012, or 2011, or 2010, or 2009, or 2008.  If the romp did occur.....it somehow goes back to 2006/2007 era.....eleven or more years ago.

So all this hype....from a washed-up adult-film actress with a drug habit...from a supposed fling nearly eleven years ago, and dragged out into the public scene by a nearly washed-up Sixty Minutes guy?

If this is really nifty stuff....with public appeal....could we have the dozen-odd ladies that Bill Clinton did it with as well?  Most of them weren't even paid for their services....like Stormy got the front-money from the Trump lawyer, and later from the Sixty Minutes crew.

Friday, 23 March 2018

CNN at the Airport?

It's come up in the last couple of days as a major topic.....as various folks are peeved and fed-up with CNN being the only option at airports across the nation.

Having traveled a good bit over the past decade, I'm one of those who had to sit there and endear CNN.

In the 2008 to 2012 era....I didn't mind CNN that much although if this was a four-hour wait (like at some Raleigh Airport), then I came to some point where my patience was running out. Summer of last year, I had two hours of waiting at Nashville, and another three hours of waiting at Atlanta....where CNN was the only thing possible.  You could sense various people sitting there and in a fairly angry mode over what was coming across. 

These days, I tend to look for a seat that has no view of the TV....and find a newspaper to read over.  If they've got the sound pumped up.....I go and look for some airport person to whine about the sound. 

How many folks would prefer to see CNN gone from the airport?  No one does statistics on stuff like that.  My guess is that fifty to sixty percent would like to see it gone.  Some would like to see all TVs completely gone.  Some probably would like to see just Animal Planet type shows on the air, or some travel documentary pieces. 

In a way, it's driving some folks nuts.  It'll trigger a political conversation, and get people hyped up right before a flight....aggravated and frustrated at the absolute wrong time.  I'm surprised that some mental health freaks haven't invented a new syndrome word for CNN at the airport. 

Thursday, 22 March 2018

News Story

“People think they’re dealing with evil masterminds, when they’re really just Keystone Cops.”

-- Quote on Daily Beast, talking of a unnamed GOP guy describing what Cambridge Analytical really looked liked

As much as everyone seems freaked out about Facebook data going to possibly help Trump win, and it's heartbreaking for most Democrats......no one can cite at this point, what real plus-up the data gave the Trump camp.

The 'lightning-in-a-bottle' description.....might have been truthful if you called it 'sugar-water-in-a-bottle'.   

Tuesday, 20 March 2018

California, Divisions, Fake Solutions, and the Six State Idea

I could probably make this a 100-page thesis type project but I'll try to limit myself to sixty lines.

The first time I ever made it into California was a western-US drive which I had mapped out in 1981.  I had three weeks of leave from the Air Force and $3,000 in cash to splurge on this 'expedition'. I crossed over the border near Baker, California....about an hours drive west of Vegas.  I made my way down to the Santa Monica area....got on Highway 1, and spent seven days traveling up the coastal highway. 

The adjectives to use for Highway 1?  Majestic, monumental, and grand.

Except for a side-trip to San Diego and Hollywood in the 1990s, I've never been back.

I worked with various characters who grew up in California or spent part of their lives there.  The topic of conversation would come up and you tended to get four references to the state:

1.  Most who were there in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s....all describe the state like some classical Hollywood movie.  Almost 99-percent of these people would be considered die-hard fanatics of their version of California.  In their mind, the state no longer exists.

2.  The folks who grew up in the shadow of LA.  These are mostly the people who grew up there in the 1980s or 1990s....saw the community go through negative periods, and would question why any idiot would stay there today.

3.  The San Francisco crowd.  This crowd will go and describe to almost the exact day where good and bad....met, and ended (November 1975).  The mayors election that brought Moscone into power would be described for years as a politically rigged election and set into motion the tail-spin.  To be honest though....Democratic mayors had been the trend since 1964. 

4.  The folks who grew up in northern California.  This crowd will harp on clean air, great landscapes, and quiet solitude.  They also will let you know that they are conservatives.

So here's the reality of what's happened in the past fifty-odd years.  Urbanized LA has become a political machine with guaranteed votes for the Democratic Party.  Urbanized San Francisco has become a political machine with guaranteed votes for the Democratic Party.  The northern third of the state, and San Diego (leading east to the AZ border) is mostly Republican-type voters.

You hold a state election, and the bulk of the power (probably 65 to 70 percent) will stay in Democratic hands. That's the simple truth.

The state is in serious financial trouble, and can't find any solution.  Adding to the pain is that the fact that people are leaving the state now....something that no one would have suggested back 25 years ago.  Between crime, taxation, and dwindling resources....the state has no future to brag about.

So, some people would like to split it up.....a minimum of two states, to a maximum of six states.  I've looked at the maps.  Using the six-state formula, you can figure that four of the states will be conservative type states.  Silicon Valley and West California would be extremely Democratic in nature. 

The harm brought by this idea?  The huge tax income from Silicon Valley and LA?  It wouldn't be shared any longer with the rest of the state. 

Nothing within the Constitution really allows for this, and you could sense that the Democratic Party itself doesn't want this to come up.  But the bigger question is.....if you allow them to split up....why not allow Missouri or Michigan to do the same thing?   Let's be honest.....NY City ought to be a state by itself. 

All of this keeps people busy and talking about something.....that will never be allowed.  That's the whole dynamic to this game. Course as each passes and financial woes escalate....you have to wonder.....where exactly will the solution be found?

The greatness of the state?  Highway One.  Even today.....you could spend a week going up the state and seeing all the fantastic landscape.  It would be so easy to sell the state on just the landscape.

What Will Happen to Mark Zuckerberg?

This is strictly my humble view of Facebook's creator, and the path left here.

On the path of technology development and nifty ways of using Facebook....Zuckerberg might be the guy to have as the chief and running the company.

As a business CEO, or being the figure to be dragged into some congressional meeting?  No, he's simply not that guy.

I think by summer of 2019....after congress attempts to write various reforms into the data handling of Facebook....the board will meet and decide upon a bold new vision....which pushes Zuckerberg out the side door and he will be kept as a consultant-only.

The pain here for Facebook is that they envisioned using all this collected data for dozens of projects, and somewhere in the middle....was political conversation and converting people to certain agendas.  You might sit there and laugh....but they expected to use it for bringing the 'right'candidates up (note: Democrats).  Instead, they've now discovered that they released the user data to an organization that blended it into a product for Donald Trump. 

I would suspect that Zuckerberg is sitting there in a furious state of mind.  His product was supposed to be used for 'good' purposes and bringing in Hillary Clinton and so on.  Instead, he gave the private data data to be used for Trump.

What Zuckerberg does as a non-entity of Facebook?  He might go and start up another social media site.  He might just retire to Costa Rica and sip fruity cocktails.  He might even relocate to England and be part of the BREXIT world.

I just don't see him there at Facebook by the middle of 2019. 

Cambridge Analytica Analyzed

I sat over most of yesterday evening reading through the various bits and pieces of this 2016 election story involving Cambridge Analytica and

So ten observations:

1.  While everyone is hyped up and talking about Cambridge Analytica being the ONLY company doing this.....that's mostly a laugh.  There are probably dozens, if not hundreds, of companies....which use social media data to predict trends with customers and the public.  This is simply one of many.

2.  Was Trump the first to use their services?  No.  Ted Cruz laid down $3-million for a brief period of 'customer support'.  Ben Carson briefly used the services. 

3.  Facebook acting all shocked?  About the most fake 'shocked' that you can get.  Their whole future profit situation is dependent upon having stupid people post things, chat about friends, and take stupid pictures.....which can be viewed and 'graded' in some way. Then Facebook sells that information to someone for a bit of money for profit.  If they yank this data collection business out....their profits drop and they marginally can survive.

4.  Lobbyists have used various data sets over the past two-hundred years to get an advantage for products, referendums, and candidates.  It's just that now.....in 2018....it's so easy to slip info on 100 million people and in a month...come up with positions that might entice 10-percent of the group to vote on something differently.

5. Will some idiots from the UK or US political establishment go after Cambridge Analytica?  More than likely....but they will simply shut down their UK office and move to some country like Czech or Switzerland. 

6.  If you were really furious and wanted to make an effect against them?  Delete your Facebook, Twitter, social media accounts.....and just live a simple quiet life.

7.  Oddly, among the millions of accounts on Facebook, there are dozens (maybe hundreds) of accounts that lead back to 'Hank' the dog, or 'Cindy' the cat.  So as Cambridge Analytica does its magic....somewhere in the middle is dog and cat information. 

8.  What did Cambridge Analytica really tap into?  Anger and frustration existing.  Something that Hillary and the Democratic Party probably weren't willing to pay a company to tell them that bit of information.

9. Are CNN, Fox News, Washington Post, or MSNBC any different?  They are relying upon a psychological profile of the viewers/readers, and they hope enough will be around to view their product.  So far, MSNBC and Fox have been correct.  The Post is marginally profitable and require cash infusion from their owner.  CNN? It's on the line of starvation.

10.  Is there anything illegal about what Cambridge Analytica did?  No.  There might be new laws made but they will be crafted carefully around what Facebook desires.  Is there anything unethical about what they did?  No....they took public information that people wanted to share.  From my home state of Alabama....I would take a guess of the 4.87-million people in the state....probably around 2.5 million have an account.  Most folks in the state under the age of thirty (probably 95-percent) have an account. You can walk around and find various people in your community who aren't part of the data collected by Cambridge Analytica. 

While journalists want to hype this and make you worried....the question...worried over what?  You put all this data in public forums to be read....what did you expect would happen with that data?

Sunday, 18 March 2018

How McCabe Royally Screwed Up

Over the past couple of months, I've been this Andrew McCabe story a good bit.  My speculation was that he would be fired....it was just a matter of when.

So what did he royally screw up?

At some point in mid-September 2016, it came to his desk.....that another copy of the Hillary emails existed.

The odd thing now occurs.....for about five to six weeks....he keeps his mouth shut and refuses to brief his boss. Well....he says that now.  I'm not exactly buying into this part of the story.

Yes, there on the laptop of former US Representative Anthony Weiner....were copies under a folder which connected back to Hillary's top aid....Human Abedin.

What happened in this period of five or six weeks? It's virtually unknown.  He's never talked about keeping the secret and I seriously doubt that he kept the secret.  My guess is that he told the boss (Comey), and probably Hillary Clinton.

All of this would have been fine, if Hillary had won.  Yes, IF she had won.  No one would be talking about this today and McCabe would have gotten a promotion somewhere in the middle of this mess.

But Trump won, and an IG investigation occurred.  In the end....they asked for McCabe for a sworn testimony, and he basically lied.

At that point, I think he was finished with the position and just hopped that something would delay his being fired. 

His expectation now?  He might wait out the remaining Trump period (3 years or 7 years) and hope that someone will come in and offer him a job with a pardon.

Thursday, 15 March 2018

The DNA Story

It's an odd science story, which make people go and ponder upon things.

After Scott Kelly went off into space for roughly eleven months.....he returned.  He has a twin brother.  DNA-wise, the two should match up very closely.  After the trip though....they took another DNA test of Scott, and came to this odd conclusion.....SEVEN percent of his DNA changed after this trip. The general things that changed?  The immune system, DNA repair structure, bone formation networks, hypoxia and hypercapnia.

If Scott had made two or three trips over a decade period?  There's probably a heck of a lot about the DNA structure of Scott that would be totally different.

So, we come to this topic of science conversation.  Any serious space travel....means that your DNA changes....for better or worse.  If you did go off on some seven-year adventure....you would return in a very different way, with probably more than a quarter of your DNA revamped, and it would lead to general expectations going to some far extremes. 

But using this same logic....it means that some other folks (aliens, if you like) are stuck into this problem as well, and if they went off on some great fifteen year expedition....their DNA wold be modified and changed as well.  In fact, if you hauled a dog aboard the space ship....you'd find their DNA swapped around and changed as well. 

While the PhD guys avoided the topic....you'd sit and pause over the next issue....plants have DNA as well.  If you blasted a dozen plants into space for a year....would all of them be altered as well?  The odds are....yes.

The odds of vast space travel ahead for humans?  Once you admit that your body is undergoing constant 'renovation' upon itself, and medical folks can't predict how they'd treat these things while on a voyage....the idea of vast space travel will likely go away. 

Wednesday, 14 March 2018

Caffeined Out

It was a poor night of sleep last night, and this morning....on my way to a German language class in town.....I stopped to have a double-espresso. 

For those from Bama who've never had an espresso....it's a shot-like container with about 80 to 110 milligrams of caffeine in it, which you balance against a large cup of coffee which would normally have about 120 milligrams of caffeine in it.  Some German coffee shops make 'low', and some go to the 110 level. 

So I stood there and asked for the double....at a shop which goes for the max level....so I was set to get 220 milligrams of caffeine....in a fairly small cup.

Well....the lady accidentally punched the button twice.  So I ended up with a larger sized espresso cup, with four shots of 110 milligrams each. 

About 30 minutes into the class, I came to realize how wired up I was and focused to the max.  It's not something I would suggest to folks to binge upon.


Tuesday, 13 March 2018

Recognizing Fifth-Grade Behavior Among Adults

I've come to this stage in life where I sit and analyze things to the ninth degree.  Lately, it's bothered me about childlike behavior that we see....particularly among teens, college-age folks, and even young adults.  So I've come to my five factors over these people:

1.  When something goes wrong....their first reaction is to go and find someone to blame.  Rather than repairing the situation....analyzing the contributing factors of the problem....resolving to fix the mess, they are totally focused on one single agenda....blame.

Part of this is poor parenting....part of this is poor teachers through school, and part of this involves university professors who are themselves poor quality instructors. 

2.  Impulse-like behavior.  This tends to involve people who can't handle stress or pressure.  They react in a impulsive way to events that occur.  During this stage, they skip over thinking about consequences and create a bigger mess than necessary.  Maybe days later....maybe even months later, they will come back and revisit some event that they triggered and realized that they turned a one-star event into a five-star fiasco. 

The problem here is that some folks may try to herd them toward a central point or a resolution situation, and the childlike adult will then push them back and intimidate them into sticking with the impulse that started.  I call this a 'wave-effect'.  Logic would dictate that thinking take place and some solution ought to be implemented, but this child-like 'creature' can't accept that as the right step.

3.  Bullying.  You see this over and over now in high schools and university situations.  Divide and conquer.  There are the insiders and the outsiders.  It's acceptable as fifth-graders to act in this way....but you shouldn't be expecting 21-year old adults to behave like this. 

Forcing some type of team approach?  You now find companies looking at various coaching tactics to force younger employees to work as a team.  This was a common thing to see in most people through the 1970s and 1980s.  Today?  You see a declining behavioral trend. 

4.  Defensive measures which are marginalized and ineffective.  Generally, if some conversation starts with these people....they want to explain their position, which has a 'you-must-believe' scenario attached to it.  You listen intently and reach a stage where you offer a counter-statement to the 5th-grade mentality 'kid'.  You state the obvious....you will be open-minded and able to hear out a discussion....but you state your position with logical clarity.  In the end, you suggest a divided position exists, and the fifth-grade 'kid' can't accept that.  At this point, they go with defensive measures which involve yelling, screaming, or just plain bad behavior.

In a university hall where they've decided to stage one of their marginalized yelling/screaming episodes....they usually turn the event into a joke because they can't handle the topic, the discussion, or the alternate view. 

5.  Finally, this odd situation of not accepting any lessons learned.  In this behavior trait....the 'kid' can't bare to discuss the idea that they were wrong, and they could learn a lesson from the mistake or the poor decision made.

This would be OK if we were talking about 11-year old kids.  But in this case....we are talking about older teenagers, college kids, and young adults.  Admitting they screwed up is bad enough, but then asking them to consider the future, some other walk of life, or some other understanding?  Well....no, they can't handle that.

 In their mind, there are no lessons learned because there are no mistakes. 

The sad thing about all of this is that some kid's parents end up to a great degree...funneling $50,000 to $100,000 for some four-year period, and 'Junior' (or 'Wanda') end up being some product that can't think or comprehend.  They believe they are out to change the world but can't resolve the fact that they know very little about the world, or the people in it.  The cash that mom and dad throw down into the 'pit'?  Well....it's gone and expecting any return on the money is just about impossible.

So as you sit in some mall, or in some staff meeting....coming to the realization that members in your group aren't behaving as adults, and maybe acting like 5th-graders.....you can understand their maturity issue.  Don't expect much, but at least there's some logic to illogic.

Sunday, 11 March 2018

A DNA Footnote

Last year when I did the DNA test deal....one of the odd pieces that came out of the test....was this .1-percent (yeah, awful low) of a connection that leads DNA-wise to India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.  You can search over both sides of the family tree, for five or six generations....and find nothing that really explains the eastern Asian DNA significance.

So I've spent a couple of hours over the last month looking at a likely scenario.

You see, there is this odd factor in the DNA test results..... a .4-percent Ashkenazi Jew. 

One of the branches in the family had this dramatic move in the mid-1600s from southern France to central Germany, and stayed there (around the Rheinland Pfalz region) for about two to three generations....then packed up and left for America in the 1760s era. 

My best guess is that one of those members ended up marrying some local German, who had this family connection back to the 300 AD to 700 AD period and some Jewish trader who came into central Germany.

That Jewish trader?  Well....only because of the Roman Empire passion for trade....does he end up making his way from Rome to central Germany.  Prior to that, this guy probably lived in Judah and his family....for generations...had gone to using the 'Silk Road' which led from the Mediterranean through India and Afghanistan....onto China. 

My scenario would suggest that one of these relatives of this guy had some long period of trade going on in perhaps Afghanistan....married up with some local gal, and had Jewish-Ashkenazi-Afghan kids from that situation, who eventually moved off to the Med and one of them ended up in central Germany.

The Silk Road deal?  Most folks agree that it began as early as 220 BC.  This road connected Rome through Persia, the Med, India, Afghanistan, Greece, and onto eastern China.

A odd factor in the DNA?  Yes, and it lays out an awful long route for that sequence to exist today.

"Maybe That Tracker Can't Count That High"

Someone last week was observing CNN on one of their anti-Trump chats, and viewed what had been a regular feature (almost daily in early 2017)....the jobs-created-tracker.

It's a simple graphics chart that they'd get routine updates from the government and it would show jobs created since day one of the Trump administration.

Up until 5 January, it was kept up to date (monthly updates).  So sixty days have passed, and.....nothing.  The chart still says on 5 January 2018....1,839,000 newly created jobs. 

It's a puzzling thing....you'd think that one single guy has three-hundred-odd facts to update for CNN on a monthly basis, and it's like he just went off on a vacation or just refuses to update the number.  I noticed someone even suggesting that the counter (tracker) maybe was built to only handle the number going up to 1,839,000 and there's no more that you can add to the number.

The Daily Caller, I noticed, even discussed the idea that CNN laid off the individual who was handling the jobs tracker.  Oddly, if true, this is one of the individuals who've actually lost their job at CNN because of lower viewer count (shocking, you know).  Daily Caller says fifty folks were lost in this recent period at CNN. 

The odds that the graphic will continue to be used?  Since they pointed this out....my guess is that CNN is desperately trying to find the method to update the slide and by April....will correct this.  But this brings me to this odd conclusion.

CNN's whole view of constructed news since the summer of 2016 and the election period.....was to pump and hype political news a great deal...being the anti-Trump network.  At this point, almost two years into this....it's actually harming their bottom line and creating a profit-problem.  By the end of 2018?  Another fifty to a hundred folks likely to be dismissed.  If Trump were around to 2024....what would be left at CNN?

Saturday, 10 March 2018

Five Observations over Stormy Daniels

This Trump-Daniels thing has a twist or two....but I've down to five odd observations:

1.  This $140,000 that came as hush-money.....did Stormy actually report the money to the IRS and how exactly would you claim the money on the IRS form?  You'd assume that $40,000 of that (minimum) would end going to the IRS.  For some reason, I have my doubts that she reported the income.

2.  If the IRS gets hyped up and comes in....would they stop merely at the $140,000 in an audit?  Or would they go and look for all of the other potential hush-money pay-offs of the past decade?  Were there other hush-money pay-offs?  If you didn't report those....you'd have to pay taxes now, and a fine.  You could be talking about just one single hush-payoff, or two-dozen hush-money situations.  All of that would lead to terrible problems with tax lawyers, and tens of thousands just in lawyer fees to handle the cases.

3.  Did Donald and others just pay Storm for liaisons (unlike Bill Clinton's past)?  And if they did pay.....did Stormy report the income to the IRS? 

4.  With almost a twenty-year career in adult movies.....where does this lead onto now? 

5.  With all this public activity, the term 'discretion' is basically thrown out the door....so what happens to the contacts list of Stormy?  Did she lost a bunch of contacts now....since she can't maintain discretion?  Does anyone even care?

For some odd reason, I suspect that some network (cable related) will offer her a reality TV show series, and find out that six months into the deal that there's not that much interest in watching Stormy in reality. 

The Consequence of the Sugar Tax

Roughly two years ago....the city leaders of Philly stood up and passed a radical new tax.....a tax on sodas (with sugar).  If you were within the city limits of Philly...you paid 1.5 cents per ounce on a sugar soft drink.  A twenty ounce container?  That mean 30 cents going to the city.  Then they turned around and said that this newly found money would go to fund roughly 6,500 seats in a kindergarten situation for city residents (not to reach 100-percent until 2023).

Well...it's been two years almost....and what can be said is an odd thing.  Most grocery stores and drink shops have seen a continual drop.  People buy their sodas outside of the city limits now. 

No one says much over the consequence of this, but if you went an extra five miles to buy bulk in sodas.....wouldn't you go and buy OTHER things in bulk while at this non-city-tax establishment? 

I noticed this brought up this week and discussed to some degree. 

The city has a problem in that they chased people away from town and gave them a reason to shop in non-city-tax establishments.  To meet this goal of the 6,500 seats in the child-promise deal?  Well....yeah, there's a Philly discussion going on....of raising more taxes....in order to reach the goal of the first tax (the sugar tax). 

Why not admit failure and just dump the 6,500 seat idea?  The political folks just can't bring themselves to admit that they really screwed up. 

You can sit and do the math.  If you had a couple of members in the family, and regularly drunk 4,000 ounces of soda a year (a hefty amount, I admit) then your debt to the city would be around $60 a year.  You could drive one single time out beyond the city ($2 of extra gas) and pocket the $58 into your pocket by buying bulk.  In fact, you could find in the entire city.....ten thousand families doing this and pocketing $600,000 a year. 


Friday, 9 March 2018

Kim and Donald

Sometime in the next six to eight weeks....Donald Trump will end up meeting face-to-face with Kim Jung Un.  If you had suggested this a year ago....most State Department intellectuals would have laughed.  Well....it's about a 95-percent chance now that the meeting will take place.  No one says where, or under what circumstances.

My best guess is that it'll be in China....at some private hotel resort.  There will be some private meeting for three hours arranged between Kim and Trump.  An evening dinner will occur with South Korean and Chinese officials invited as well. 

End-result?  An invitation for Kim to the White House by mid-summer.  He'll get the state visit....a White Dinner deal...and perhaps a CNN interview situation.

What really happened?  I think that enough squeeze occurred with economic conditions (thanks to China) that some logical thought was put into the future.  Somewhere down the line....you could end up with North Korea agreeing to dismantle the nuke threat, and the US agreeing to downsize their forces in South Korea (likely to be several years of a process).

Fixing the trend?  No one should get hyped up over this.  Course, it would be odd if Kim comes to meet Donald Trump and finds that they have some passionate interests.  Who knows....maybe Kim has a collection of Stormy videos.   

The Stormy-Donald Opera

While the mainstream media plays this out....there are several pieces to this lusty-movie-figure (Stormy) and President Trump.

First, typically when someone refers to a gal in the adult-movie trade as a 'star'....it means they made some group of movies.  Sadly, no one can ever remember the titles to these movies.  In this case, some guys might remember 'Space Nuts' from 2003...but that was back when Stormy was in her early 20s.  A handful of guys might remember 'Sex Door Neighbors' from five years ago, where Stormy directed.  Beyond that, I doubt if you can find more than a thousand guys across the entire US who remember any other movies that Stormy made.

All of this leads me to the observation that an associate made in the 1990s....lusty movies just aren't remembered for acting or a script.  My associate then suggested that you could go and hire four Russian gals and over a weekend....giving each gal a fake lusty name.....make some 90 minutes of some fake script, and make ten-thousand dollars selling it.  The whole industry, as he suggested....was a gimmick.  Any idiot could get into the industry.

Second, most 'actresses' in the industry....are pushed out by age thirty.  A few survive til age 35.  Beyond that, your entire career is finished.

Third, how Stormy and Donald met?  I read some piece that suggested that while at some golf match....some guy had brought Stormy over as a 'guest' and introduced her to Donald.  The guy?  Unknown.  Did he pay for a Stormy-weekend?  Well....no one says that....they just tell the golf-club story which has basically two brief lines.  No one even says that Stormy can golf.

Fourth, if Donald and Stormy were a thing....was this like one of Bill's episodes where Bill forced himself on the gal....did Donald have to pay for 'it'.....or was this a mutual open and free deal?  If Donald paid....did Stormy note that in her income for the IRS?  Was Stormy making a real income off this deal?  This money that the lawyer paid Stormy in the interest of Donald.....is Stormy going to report that income to the IRS?

Fifth, about the worst that I can see coming out of this is that the President's wife will get fed up....leave and return to New York, and divorce him.  Then?  Well....Donald goes on as President.  Remember the little French guy, Francois Hollande?  After his little affair came out....his wife got all angry and left (she was wife number two anyway, and had ventured into an affair to break up his original marriage).  I don't see this changing much of anything.

Sixth, for those folks all disturbed and angry over adultery and national politics.....well....look around.  About half of the Senate are on their second or third marriage.  Go ask how McCain treated his first wife at the end.  Maybe forty years ago....the news media could go and freak out, and trigger some national outrage....but folks have come to realize that mostly all of these national leaders are fake creations, and the marriage doesn't matter much.

Seventh, so I come back to Stormy.  She has the potential to maybe make this last into a six-month long public thing, and then?  Well....it's just like some lusty movie title that you don't remember....it goes away.  By spring of 2019....some guys will have gone out and bought a copy of Space Balls and note Stormy's real acting ability....asking how she did A, B, or C....and she might make one more movie for public consumption.  Beyond that....I just don't see her around past 2020....she'll disappear into Vegas as some act.

My advice...if you were looking for the perfect President, with perfect values, perfect marriage, perfect fakeness.....well, you can have it.  Or you could have something totally different.  I think right now....people want something totally different.

Footnote: Oh, and that talk of the Sixty Minutes interview coming up with Stormy?  Go ask Sixty Minutes what they paid for the 'act'. 

Wednesday, 7 March 2018

This Oscar Thing

Personally, I haven't watched the Oscars show.....since around 1992.  Yeah, it's well over twenty years....going on thirty years.  I just don't care.  In an entire year, I might go to three total movies and frankly....the award means very little to me in terms of getting me to watch the movie.

As for the viewer count going down?  The show over the past decade (you can look over comments made by people) is mostly a political forum and folks don't care if they lose viewers or not.

So where does the lowly rated show go now?

I'm of the mind that the producers and Academy will meet in three months and discuss this whole matter and opt for some non-political type guy to moderate it.  Six weeks will pass, and they will admit that they can't find such a person existing who would give them the dynamics required.  So a female will be found to moderate, and the 2019 show will be another full-blast political show....which has even fewer viewers than this year's show.

All of this will lead onto a trend where the major networks finally opt around 2021....NOT to carry it, and one of the cable networks buy into this....for a much-lesser price. 

The viewer count will continue to a lesser spiral, and by 2025....it'll quietly disappear as a nationally-viewed show.  Maybe it'll still be data-streamed and sent live to Europe....but I think you are within ten years of seeing the Oscars amount to something of zero importance to more than seventy-percent of the American population.

A Loser TV Show Idea

One of the networks has gone out and scheduled up production of this hour-long drama.

The layout?  Well....."Joe" is married to this black dude (yep...a gay marriage).  And the black dude husband has come up and gotten shot/killed....by the cops.  So begins....'Red Line'.  No one says if Joe was a drugged up thug....a PhD scientist....a fighter pilot.....or a community organizer.  Maybe that part doesn't really matter. 

I sat there reading the two-line description to this.

Basically, this is supposed to draw a bunch of black and gay viewers.  That's the logic.

Most of the general black community?  The minute you suggest that "George' (the black dude) has gotten killed....yeah....maybe fifty-percent of the black viewer community would get hyped up and watch the show.  But then you say that the person left....is not "Tonya" but a white husband?  Well....about 90-percent of the black community will just start laughing and saying....'the hell you say'.

The gay crowd?  Well, they will look over the idea and then ask....yeah, but isn't this Noah Wyle guy 'regular' (non-gay) in real life?  Couldn't they find a real gay actor?   So they might go and watch two episodes of this, and along about the 3rd show....just shake their head because there is little there to be interested in.

A sort of fake political trend for some TV production?  To be honest, they've run out of good ideas, and this is what we are stuck with now.

Fixing this?  Maybe if you'd had "Joe" (the black dude shot), and his wife (Tonya) was ex-Army and Green Beret....sworn to kill the cop eventually for doing her husband wrong, then it might make for one good season.  But the black dead dude and the white model-looking dude script?  It just ain't going to work.


Tuesday, 6 March 2018

This New Amazon 2nd Headquarters

As things are appearing, I have this image of what the 2nd headquarters will end up being, and it's probably way different than people suspect.  The odds of DC being picked now?  It's about a 99-percent chance. 

I think Amazon is really building a corporate place that has limited personnel (probably no more than three-hundred folks) and will be this lobbyist-like element for the corporation. 

I believe that Amazon will walk in....probably buy the Newseum structure that sits between the White House and Congress, and turn it into a public structure.  Forty percent of the structure will stay the same....the rest turn into office space or speaking rooms. 

After the smoke clears, the public will come to realize that Amazon is trying to get various things stacked in their favor, and grow the company in massive ways.  The thought that it would be a real headquarters?  No.  It's there in DC for a reason, and they intend to talk political players into decisions which benefit the company over the next century. 

Saturday, 3 March 2018

Delta and the Discount

For a number of years, Delta Airlines offered up a discount to folks who were in the NRA.  Over the past two weeks....Delta dumped that discount, for a public relations opportunity with the anti-gun folks.  Georgia then said fine....we will dump your $40 million tax credit within Georgia.

Well....late yesterday, Delta wrapped up a check of how the discount had worked, and established that only 13 folks over the past year, had invoked the NRA ticket discount deal.  They were strangely quiet over how much the 13 folks had saved.

I would suspect that the tickets....if you went to the 13 folks....probably were in the range of $15 to $20, for a $250 ticket.  So they basically lost $40 million in tax credits over roughly $300 of value to the NRA folks. 

Around a decade ago, I worked with a guy who had five or six membership deals, and continually traveled and often bragged on his discount 'working'.  In a normal year, he'd pull out near $5,000 for him, the wife, and kids on travel.  Each occurred with a discount.  So our budget wiz in the office sat there and analyzed the impact of the discounts....asking the guy about the prices of tickets for X, Y, and Z travel....over a year.  The financial wiz then used a cheap ticket source and priced the tickets.  The membership deals in the end amount to about $150 total, out of the $5,000 spent, when you looked at the absolute low ticket offered. 

In simple terms, the savings did exist but was marginal. But the idea here is that people think they are saving money or getting a special deal.

For Delta?  I'm guessing the management crowd is angry over the loss of the $40 million tax credit and the way they were jerked around.  Thinking of moving the headquarters out of Atlanta?  They might, but they'd have to go and find a state with tax credits being offered.  Most of those only (I emphasis the word ONLY)....from southern states.  And those are all NRA friendly type states.

Added onto this episode, a fair number of people who were NRA supporters or NRA members....probably aren't pro-Delta anymore and would be easily tempted to use other airlines. 

The curious thing to this whole story are the 13 folks who asked for the discount tickets as a NRA member.  The odds that they are all from one single family?  Oh.....well....yeah, that might actually be true. 

Friday, 2 March 2018

The Best Way to Change America?

It took me many years to ponder upon this idea that is continually dragged up and put up as some national trendy topic.  Yes, how can we best change America?

Well....it's simple if you really think about it.  You need to change people's opinions. So you do the logical thing....you excommunicate them from your mindset.

Yes, if they were friends and their beliefs just didn't go along with yours....you shun them.  You reject them.  You neglect them.  You stand aloof of them.  You have no part of them. You evade them.

You can do this at family Thanksgiving or Christmas dinners.  You can get into some big conversation over a topic which will anger folks, and they will leave the table, and likely leave the house.  You can drag out topics at the PTA meetings, and trigger their exodus.  There are hundreds of ways that you can help to excommunicate them from your mindset, and just feel better....that you changed America.

Well.....actually all you did was create a fake environment around you where you only socialize with like-minded people.  Oddly, then everything becomes political, and a vote matters. In the 2016 case, the vote shocked the excommunicate-crowd.  In this rare situation....the excommunicate crowd....was excommunicated.  Yep, that was a real shocker.

We've now gone to create new terms for people with this excommunicate-type of mentality....snowflakes.  They were so busy in excommunicating people...that they lost the perspective of different opinions and varying ideas of culture and society.  These are the people who can't handle reality anymore because they've excommunicated so many people.

Where did excommunication originally come from?  This is one of those curious things.  Back around 1,300 years ago....as the Catholic Church became the only accepted religion in Europe....they found that people were lacking in enthusiasm for the religion.  People in fact....were challenging various ideas that the church pushed.  So the Catholics invented this term....excommunicating.  They basically said that society needed to neglect the other folks....stand apart from them....avoid them...etc.

Frederick II was actually excommunicated three times by the Catholic Church....with official paperwork done each time.

Where does this excommunication lead onto?  Well....eventually, I think some folks are going to seek some type of mental help and get convinced that the bad folks....the excommunicated folks....are mentally unstable, and we will move onto a more serious problem.  But for the time being, sit back and just be entertained by the fifth-grade mentality.

Thursday, 1 March 2018

The Impending Census

In roughly two years, the 2020 Census will start up.  Some folks have finally begun to realize that this won't be the typical average Census, and that Trump might reshuffle the deck.

What happens?  There is a discussion that the Census is there only to count Americans (citizens), and if you found some method of enabling that....there might be a serious reshuffling of House seats across the nation.

For example, the general public count for California is 39.5 million people.  If you forced the citizen issue, and the population reset down to 37 million...it might trigger one seat to be lost....maybe even two.

If you used the same idea in New Mexico? The general public count is 2.08 million people.  If you forced the citizen issue, and 1.7 million citizens were counted....they might lose one of the three seats.

The plain truth is that virtually every state (perhaps except Alaska) would see population losses.  The thing is though.....California and Florida are likely the two that would have the greater non-citizen situation. 

How would you force this to be accepted?  The only possible way is a national ID card....to be used for the Census, and voter registration.  The odds of this?  Three years ago, I would said a national ID card was impossible to achieve.  I no longer believe that. I think they could easily make it work.