Wednesday 26 February 2020

Farmer Jones, the Coronavirus, and the Logistical 'Path'

In the midst of this Coronavirus....one day, Farmer Jones will have a fan belt break on a particular farm implement that was made in 1972.  He figures fine....he'll walk into the farm store in town and buy a new belt.

There, he talks to Randy (the sales dude), and these belts that he'd typically have....have run out.  The company which marketed them and shipped them?  A Chinese company in Wuhan.  Randy says it's been that way since 2004. 

You ask....well....what's the delay here?  Randy says that a fair number of the Chinese guys at this belt factory are either sick, dead, or have run off because of the disease threat.

You kinda hint to Randy....this ain't going to be something that you can do without.

A day or two passes, and a second item on the farm has broke down.  The replacement part?  You go to the Illinois 'BIG' Farm web-site, and figure you can order it.  They say it's a problem....out of stock, and the replacement items are not being produced in Wuhan as the schedule would work.

A week later, some funny disease starts up with your cattle, and the Vet says you need X....to vaccinate them.  He'd like to help you but he only has one bottle of the stuff left, and you need six of them.  So you ask....where is this produced, and he says China.  Yep, there's a bottleneck now.

So Randy calls up and has said he knows this Peruvian guy who makes generic belts to fit this farm requirement.  The problem is....you need to talk to him on the size and shape. 

The wife knows this Honduran family at church, and you call them up....asking if 'Juan' (their 12-year-old son can chat for you).  They come over, and you call Peru.  Juan spends 20 minutes on the phone describing the size and shape of the belt.....with an acceptable price-tag, and the belt will be flown in by Friday.  Toward the end of this call....the Peruvian says they do 'other' things.   So Juan goes into detail about the second piece of equipment broke, and that guy can build that item as well.

Then Juan mentions the medication issue with the cattle.  The Peruvian asks what type, and that his cousin....who happens to be in the drug cartel business....can remedy a reproduction of this vaccine. 

As the days pass, Juan and the Peruvian guy forge a new relationship.  Juan (12 years old) now starts to conduct daily business out of Peru.  $10 per consultation.  A year later, Juan is making $10,000 per week....with his Peruvian-connection business. 

The drug dealers start to realize that they can reproduce virtually any drug....even cancer drugs, with a little bit of effort, and suddenly the worldwide crisis is over.....compliments of a Peruvian entrepreneur and a 12-year-old kid. 

This is how difficult and how simple this whole crisis may go in the end. 

If President Hillary Clinton Were in the Middle of This

Some news groups are getting hyped up to find some blame game to dump on Trump for the Coronavirus.  I sat and pondered upon this, and then wrote my ten thoughts if President Clinton were standing there instead:

1.  President Clinton would appoint 25 medical experts to some task force, to prepare a daily four-hour news media 'talk', with one-third of the presentation talking about dire situations, and the rest trying to reassure everyone that things are fine even if 50 people a day were dying.

2.  An enormous amount of useless data would be presented daily....affected rates of gays versus non-gays, affected rates of blacks versus whites, affected rates of rural farmers versus urban folks, and affected rates of lesbians versus gay guys.  Even the CNN journalists would say that this is a bit too much.

3.  Only twelve US airports would be allowed to handle international flights coming in.  A special medical contract would be signed by the government to provide continual shifts of doctors at the airports to survey passengers coming in.  Around the second week of this.....someone would observe that the 900 doctors brought in.....are mostly from North Korea, Cuba, Peru, and Angola...speaking almost no English.  The contract....given to a mostly unknown American Indian tribe....cannot be explained in public.

4.  A fireside chat with President Hillary would occur each week, with her promising to move 'mountains' to save humanity.

5.  Two Nobel Peace Prize folks would be desperately trying to find a way to nominate President Clinton for the award.....with just three lines of text on the nomination sheet.

6.  At least five medical companies would be attempting some form of 'donation' to the campaign fund of President Clinton.....to get the 2.5-billion dollar vaccine contract.

7.  Some major Coronavirus forum will be hustled up by President Clinton, in some Hawaiian resort hotel complex, with 2,000 political and medical figures from across the globe, for a week of talks.  As they disperse, it's discovered that 8 carriers of the virus were attending, and at least 300 attendees are now infected.

8.  In the midst of a San Francisco mass Coroniavirus episode, a decision is made at the White House to relocate 2,000 homeless people to several other states.  A month later, it'll be discovered that the bulk of the 2,000 had the virus, and as they moved to other states.....they contaminated tens of thousands in other locations.  No one from White House can remember who gave the order for this though.

9.  A debate will start up about the need for a Coronavirus 'Czar' acting out of the White House, but the center of the debate is that it has to be a woman, or a black.

10.  About four months into the US 'action'....President Clinton will declare the virus battle 'won', making a whirlwind tour around the US promoting the 'win', then return, and nine days later....have the Coronavirus herself.

Ten Things I Expect Out of This Virus-Chatter

1.  All airlines are going to report massive losses for 2020, into the billions, with stock prices prices probably dropping by 30 to 40 percent.

2.  Rumors out of China say that 10 to 20 million small-market owners (guys with small production situations, cafes, coffee shops, etc) will be bankrupt by early summer.  My guess is that China will 'print' more money and hand out 'gift-amounts'....maybe enough to survive for all of 2020.

3.  Wal-Mart will have to stand up by early April and admit that delivery-freighters from China in LA or SF ports.....are limited, and stocks for the warehouses are being reduced.  By early May, shelves at Wal-Mart operations will start to be noted as empty.  Same story for toy shelves, and some talk will start up by July that Christmas gift expectations are going to be lowered in a drastic way. 

4.  Wuhan (I think) by early May, will be having an exit-situation going on, with 10,000 locals a week leaving.  Local industry won't be able to recover.

5.  Places like Haiti, Thailand, and Egypt will be hard hit by the virus, and limited medical capabilities.  Doctors will be assaulted and killed over family anger of a relative dead.

6.  Cruise-ship operations will go into a nose-dive by early April.  At least forty of these ships will be parked around US east coast....waiting for some end to the crisis period.

7.  Several movie-production situations will be shut down for four to six months, with some movies planned for spring 2021 release....being pushed back six months. 

8.  Someone will wake up and announce that in reality.....more people die from alcohol-related disease and incidents.....than from the Coronavirus.  It's just that the virus harshly affects the over-65 crowd, with a high-death rate. 

9.  At least a hundred US prisons will announce by July that they have an infection situation, and are unable to provide adequate security for the inmates.

10.  Various judges and political figures around the US....over the age of 65.....will be noted as having 'passed-on' from the virus, and funerals will draw large crowds....where the virus has a chance to spread out among the attendees. 

Biden's Lost Memory

From last night's debate.....there is some type of statement by Joe Biden, that since 2007....roughly 150-million Americans were killed by guns.

If true, then the voting polls should be half of what they are today. 

Joe being faulty on memory?  Yeah, but luckily, we have choices.