Tuesday, 6 May 2025

I Have This Idea

 I want an AI-program called 'DUE-PROCESS'....where it's programmed to handle a 8-minute session.  You allow the illegal-guy to talk...let DUE-PROCESS evaluate in 3 seconds, and then print-out a sheet.  The guy has a deputy there who reads the paper, and routes you to the bus, or to a holding cell.

I figure DUE-PROCESS should be able to handle 200k people a day.  


This Diddy Court Case

The jury-portion of the Diddy-case opens today.  I sat and pondered over this.

 If you just stand and look at things....a number of these folks are simply demonic or  satanic...pure and simple....psychopaths. 

I'd be looking at things (if called upon for jury duty) and say to the judge....this isn't  going to be something I sit down for weeks and week...digesting.

From this crowd selected....I would take a wild guess that at least three will be affected in such a way....that require mental help for years.


Recession Chatter (Or Not)

 I sat this AM and reviewed the landscape of the US for a recession.  Officially, with existing data....as of 1 May....we are NOT in a recession. I know that the Business Channel folks keep talking of such, and CNN keeps chatting on the topic.  

However:

1.  Goldman Sachs lowered its first quarter 2025 GDP forecast....to negative growth...mostly because of weak housing data. There's a lumber sales podcast guy that I follow....that says lumber for new home construction is mostly stalled and flat (past 60 days of customers).

2.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP model estimates a -2.8-percent annualized GDP growth rate for first quarter of 2025.

3.  Corporate CFOs are reporting 'pessimism'....with 95-percent saying policy uncertainty exists.....so they are leaning toward to reduced spending and hiring.  If you were looking for a job....it's probably a bad time for mid-2025.

4.   Oddly, the unemployment rate was 4.1-percent  in February 2025, up a .1 in January.....but still historically low.  Another positive?  Employers added 151,000 jobs in March.

5. So, for mid-summer....I'd watch for two things: if unemployment got to 4.5-percent or higher, OR some kind of tariff-effect (meaning a negative trend of serious nature).

So a word about commercial property problems....Approximately $1.2–$1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans are due to mature by the end of 2025.  Banks aren't saying much, and there's bound to be some refinancing efforts to occur....but no one is saying a halt to commercial loans occurring (yet).

Also....a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study (early 2025) found that 14-percent of all commercial real estate loans and 44-percent  of office loans are in negative equity.  Hint....this is where the loan balance exceeds the property’s value. If you were looking for a RED-blinking light for default risks....this is it.

Delinquent commercial real estate loans (meaning they are behind but haven't declared bankruptcy yet) doubled from $11.2 billion in 2022 to $24.3 billion in 2023.  It's around $38 billion in office buildings that are (in 2025) at risk of default or foreclosure.  Yeah, not a good sign.

Bank failure on the horizon?  It's spotty at this point.  Still nothing to scare the crap out of people. 

How Did The Podcast People Replace Journalists?

 At some point in the Bush II era....I sat watching a White House press conference....with Dana Perino.  Question variety started to be obvious....like 5th grade kids taking two minutes for details....then asking a 9-word question.  Then they'd piece together this for the nightly CBS, NBC, CNN or ABC news piece. You can call it a narrative or connect-the-dots propaganda piece.

This lead into the 2008-to-2016 era, where journalists weren't really journalists anymore.

Somewhere around 2017/2018....I started to view podcast programs.  By 2020....I was pretty much 'stuck' on podcasts being the main form of news for me.

If you asked me what happened?  There was a evolution....where 'talking-dogs' (journalists) accepted their lower status in life, and podcasters came to fill the void.

Anger building up?  Well....yeah, the journalists are saying you need to dump the podcast crowd....get yourself back to the right narrative/connect-the-dots mentality.  You sit there for a minute....asking why, and it just sounds like a 5th-grade kid talking.

I sat yesterday watching Margaret Brennan of CBS's Face The Nation episode from the weekend.  The segment just didn't work....on various levels....you felt like some propaganda piece was the goal.  

Bold new world we live in.