I sat this AM and reviewed the landscape of the US for a recession. Officially, with existing data....as of 1 May....we are NOT in a recession. I know that the Business Channel folks keep talking of such, and CNN keeps chatting on the topic.
However:
1. Goldman Sachs lowered its first quarter 2025 GDP forecast....to negative growth...mostly because of weak housing data. There's a lumber sales podcast guy that I follow....that says lumber for new home construction is mostly stalled and flat (past 60 days of customers).
2. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP model estimates a -2.8-percent annualized GDP growth rate for first quarter of 2025.
3. Corporate CFOs are reporting 'pessimism'....with 95-percent saying policy uncertainty exists.....so they are leaning toward to reduced spending and hiring. If you were looking for a job....it's probably a bad time for mid-2025.
4. Oddly, the unemployment rate was 4.1-percent in February 2025, up a .1 in January.....but still historically low. Another positive? Employers added 151,000 jobs in March.
5. So, for mid-summer....I'd watch for two things: if unemployment got to 4.5-percent or higher, OR some kind of tariff-effect (meaning a negative trend of serious nature).
So a word about commercial property problems....Approximately $1.2–$1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans are due to mature by the end of 2025. Banks aren't saying much, and there's bound to be some refinancing efforts to occur....but no one is saying a halt to commercial loans occurring (yet).
Also....a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study (early 2025) found that 14-percent of all commercial real estate loans and 44-percent of office loans are in negative equity. Hint....this is where the loan balance exceeds the property’s value. If you were looking for a RED-blinking light for default risks....this is it.
Delinquent commercial real estate loans (meaning they are behind but haven't declared bankruptcy yet) doubled from $11.2 billion in 2022 to $24.3 billion in 2023. It's around $38 billion in office buildings that are (in 2025) at risk of default or foreclosure. Yeah, not a good sign.
Bank failure on the horizon? It's spotty at this point. Still nothing to scare the crap out of people.