Friday, 12 October 2018

The Saudi Story

It's an international story which 90-percent of Americans really haven't followed for the past ten days but it has a twist or two.  So I'll tell the basic story.

There's this Saudi guy (actual citizen) who has been motivated to tell a number of stories that are negative against the King.  He is (or was) an employee of the Washington Post.  He was set to marry but needed a document or two stamped at the nearby Saudi embassy in Istanbul.  He walks in (video captures that moment), with his girlfriend waiting in the car.  He never returns.  The Saudis say he got the document and exited the building via another exit.  No camera video exists to prove that point. Oddly, around a dozen folks have flown in over the previous couple of days and are there in the embassy at this point.  Around three to four hours after his entrance into the building....they exit the building and get into cars....all flying immediately out of Istanbul.

The Turk cops suspect the guy is dead (probably butchered up).  Proof? Non-existent.  The US has finally picked up the story and wants the Saudis to answer the magic question.

So, here is the piece which shocks the Saudis.  Today, the Turks kinda admit behind various doors that they 'might' have bugged the embassy.  And they might have video/audio of the torture and eventual death of the guy.  But they don't want to suggest in some public forum.  Why? see, they might have virtually every single embassy in Istanbul under some surveillance.  Yes, even the Americans. 

The embarrassment if they did have audio and video?  It puts the Saudis into a unique situation where public commentary might go against the King even more. 

If the guy did exit the building?  If I were the Saudis....I'd be moving heaven and earth to find the guy and establish the fact that he just didn't want to get married (cold-feet).  The Turks say that the Saudis are willing to help 'look' for the guy.  Where would you go and find such a guy?

All of this...puts Trump into an unusual position.  You could predict what Obama or Bush or Clinton would have done in this case.....more or less....nothing.  Trump?  He might chat about this but then if the Turks did put the video out there and establish this as a fact, would Trump do something that the previous three would try to avoid? 

So you come to the last piece of this....if Erdogan has this video/audio....maybe there's some 10-billion dollar deal that he could rig up and just have the Saudis arrange a fake contribution to the Turkish ensure the video/audio disappears.