Thursday, 20 August 2015

Cuba and Flights

The Wall Street Journal carried an item yesterday....over air travel being worked on by the Obama Administration and the possibility of air routes to Cuba established by the end of the year.

What's generally felt....is that some type of open door will occur and regular flights occur.  If you read between the lines....I'd take a humble guess that the week prior to Thanksgiving....it'll happen, and at least two airlines will offer a Miami to Havana or New York to Havana route on Thanksgiving weekend.

What develops by Christmas....at least by what I see is a dozen cities on the east coast offering at least a once-a-day flight into Havana, and Miami probably having a dozen flights a day.

Who goes to Cuba?  Well....in the beginning....a number of couples who just have this desire to be the first people on their block who've been to Havana.  It'll be a trip down to visit some resort built and run by some French or German folks...some casino experience....and beach episode.  Eventually, some folks will visit to utilize the Cuban cheap medical services.

By the end of 2016, I'll predict at least a hundred flights a day going into Havana.....with the news media describing how Havana became overrun by so many Americans and the charming Communist character of the city is forever lost.

Somewhere along the way.....missionary groups from various church groups will converge upon Cuba and a whole new angle on missionary work will emerge.  By 2020, Cuba will be in the middle stages of a society issue where half the island is enthusiastic about some religious conversion and the other half attached to the old Communist doctrine.

The Trump Scenario

Ten observations over what might unfold:

1.  If Trump picks up more than twenty-five state primary wins, then it'll be tough for the Republican undeclared convention delegates (roughly fifty percent of those attending will be non-primary delegates) to push him out of the way and hand it off to Bush.  If they do it....massive numbers of Republicans won't vote in November.  Oddly, they could allow Trump to proceed but give him almost no national Republican support or funding (something noted out of Virginia after Cantor was voted out by the Tea Party guy).

2.  A Trump cabinet would probably include Walker as the VP, Cruz as Attorney General, and Rubio in some cabinet post.  I also think Doctor Carson might be brought for a 'czar'-type position and retained as a close adviser to Trump.  Chris Christie and Jeb Bush would find no welcome mat for their services, but they kinda know that will be the case.  A number of business people would be brought in for various departments.

3.  The border fence/wall deal will not be a favored topic among both Republicans and Democrats.  Neither will prioritize it upon Trump arriving as President.  So, he'll carry out the construction without their help, and let the public know this was the only way to accomplish it.  2018's election will be interesting because old favorites of both parties will be likely pushed out. The fence or wall will get built.

4.  The network news folks will have problems in a anti-Trump theme.  The public won't buy into it....from either the typical Democrat or typical Republican voter.  Fox News will actually dip to lower numbers within six months of the Trump arrival.

5.  Trump and Putin.  I think Putin would be sitting there for hours....reading over intelligence reports and trying to figure out Trump.  Putin would eventually pour several shots of vodka and finally admit that there is no logical way of understanding Trump other than there's always a deal in the mix of things and Trump is not a political figure in any fashion.  Maybe the two guys would mix well....but I have my doubts.

6.  Trump on the economy.  Stocks and the 'thrill' of a Trump period would take off.  Somewhere in the fifth to eighth year.....there would be a huge crash-and-burn episode.  Too much enthusiasm and no controlled braking during the Trump period....would require a recession at some point.

7.  Trump would fire people.  You'd casually open the paper about six weeks into a Trump presidency to find that he fired a guy.  A week later....you'd observe that the fired another guy.  Lawsuits would occur and get dragged out in court over three or four years, with half the fired guys getting some judge to haul them back into the old position.  There'd be pages and pages of fired guys who would be dragged around by the media and discussed as 'victims'.....till the point where the public would ask what they did to get fired.

8.  Executive orders?  I think Trump would set the all-time record for E-O's.  The House and Senate (with both Republican and Democrats cooperating) would try to hinder these orders but Trump would simply drag them into court.  Both parties would try to use budget crisis periods to control the situation, and Trump would simply shut down the government and play out the game on TV.....making both parties look stupid.

9.  When retired President Obama comes out to do a critical assessment or negative comment about the Trump Presidency.....Trump would likely come up with a top ten screw-up's of the Obama period and the public would marvel at the debate between the two.

10.  Trump would likely walk away after the 4th year and just say it was enough.  The issue for both parties is that he's challenged the whole make-up of the political character enough.....that neither can go forward with six-line resume characters running for President anymore.