Monday, 4 March 2019

How Trump Survives: 27 Months Now

You can go and wander through all the chatter, and hundreds of comments made weekly by journalists and intellectual types....but the essential Trump technique goes back to one formula which has never been performed before.

Instant reaction to a comment or report by the news media, and in the space of one single hour....he's formed the response, and put it via Twitter.  Past Presidents of the last thirty years?  They all needed to go to a support committee....discuss this at length....looking at polling data, and then find the appropriate way to respond.  You could be talking about a minimum of three hours for an 'emergency' response, and maybe up to three days for a news media 'return of fire'. 

Trump won't listen to the chief of staff that much, or the twenty-odd people around least not to the degree that Bush, Clinton or Obama did.  Trump might listen to his daughter or sons, but again....he's got an opinion in his head, and he's begging to Tweeter that to the public. 

Can the Democrats find someone like this?  Presently, I don't think a Trump-like character exists.  Even if you brought Oprah onto the scene....she's just not the same match.  Bloomberg?  In a debate situation, he might be able to match up to Trump....but in a minute-by-minute Tweeter response?  No....he can't deliver at that rate. 

The value of the news media to the Democratic campaign?  Presently, I think they've been neutralized. After Trump utters 'fake news' enough....people identify NPR, Time, Newsweek, CNN and the some degree, as 'fake news'. 

The GOP Primary 2020

Right's just an unannounced Trump and former Governor Bill Weld (Mass) in the running.  Governor Hogan of Maryland says he might run, but there's no indication of financial backing.  Same story for former Governor Kasich of Ohio. 

Official word from Trump that he's in?  I don't think you will hear the word until October.  If he did say 'no' would be hard for someone to suddenly show up and run a decent campaign in Iowa or the next three states. 

How long can Weld stay in the process?  My guess is that he's got enough funding to stay around until 3 March (Super-Tuesday).  At that point, he'll just fade.

What this means for Trump?  Well....tons of money won't be spent in the primary period, unlike 2016.  That's fifty-plus million that he won't spend until after the convention.  For the Democrats, that's a major pain.

Appearances?  I would suggest that he doesn't do more than one single day (maybe five or six communities) of campaign efforts in Iowa.  The week prior to Super-Tuesday?  It's probably already on the calendar and he's likely got fifteen appearances in a single week.  But after the 19 May primaries in Kentucky and Arkansas....I'd suggest that his campaign stops will dwindle down, and everything simmers until the July GOP convention in Charlotte, NC. 

No debates for Trump in the spring?  Correct.  Again, this puts more pains upon the Democrats.  Remember, they are doing six in the second half of 2019, and six in the spring of 2020.  You can draw your own conclusions about the necessity of having so many of these.  My humble guess is that most people will be candidated-out by October of this year and begging for relief. 

Here's the real bottom terms of stress and long hours....Trump in 2020 is progressing along a path with half the aggravation and suffering of 2016.  Other than this week prior to Super-Tuesday, he just won't have a lot of frustration to deal with.  Whoever the Democratic candidate is?  By convention-time in 2020....that person will have burned a bunch of bridges to reach their destination, and be in serious need of rest.