Saturday, 17 November 2018

After the Santa Monica Fires

If you owned a 10-million dollar home, and it burnt to the ground with just about every single one of your 500 neighbor's houses.....then the insurance guy came around and basically played his game of 'delay' and your insurance didn't amount to more than four-million....would you rebuild?

This is one of those debate questions. Most normal folks would look at the possible repeat statistics and the marginal forest management that helped make this a mega-fire, and then gaze at their California tax situation.....then finally make this decision to pack up and leave. 

I doubt if it will be discussed much in the news or public forums....but I would speculate that more than a hundred of these 'Hollywood' type folks will make a life decision to leave the Santa Monica region, and California itself.

Most will want a great landscape and some privacy....but this is stuff that you can find in Flagstaff, Arizona or some coastal town west of Portland, Oregon. 

So the burnt sites end up being on the real estate market?  Quietly, in roughly four weeks....I think a site or two each week will pop up, and some pop-rocker will swiftly move the $3-million for a burnt-out lot with four acres attached to it, and start construction. 

My 2020 Election Scenario

This essay discusses the likely November 2020 Presidential election, and the scenario of President Trump running a second time.

Generally, after the election wraps up.....the fate of the election is then tied to electoral votes.  The Electors would meet in their individual state capitals, on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December.  The Constitution then states that they would cast their votes on separate ballots....for one occasion only....for president and vice president.  If they fail to reach the 270 point, then the whole affair using the Electoral College is finished, and you move onto plan 'B'.

I would suggest that the ultimate strategy now developed by the Democratic to use the court system, the fragile voting system in a number of states, and simply stall by judge's decree the meeting on that Monday.  If they can't deliver their vote.....the Electoral College doesn't matter and it won't bring us a President.

Plan 'B'?

There would be a joint session of the House/Senate on the 6th of January, with the new incoming House/Senate normally blessing off the electoral vote winner.  In this case, there is no winner.  So they would proceed with the game plan.

The House would then go into a meeting, with each state group, and take up the top three vote-getters of the election.

In the case of Alabama....the seven House members would meet (six GOP and one Democrat) and they'd hold a 'state-vote'. 

The Senate would go into a meeting and vote with the top two vote-getters for Vice-President.  Each individual would have one single would not be a state by state thing. 

The Senate would likely end their meeting in two hours, with a few speeches in the middle of this mess.

The House?  Several states would be able to block any vote because it's split (same number of GOP and Democratic members).  A key rule in this episode?  Delegates from two-thirds of the states must be present to start the process.  The winner?  You need 26 states to vote for the winner.

I would suggest the strategy here is to reach 6 January 2021, and ensure that the 26-number cannot be reached.

Who stands as the sub-president in this case?  The Senate picked-VP.  He will take the oath to fill in the position.  The intent of the Constitution is that some decision would be eventually reached (hopefully before 20 January).  If the Senate fails?  Well....the House Speaker takes the oath and serves as sub-president.

So, my humble belief is that this is the game-plan and we will reach 20 January without the House being able to conclude their job. 

Disgruntled voters?  It'll be a massive negative situation and likely shake the foundations of the republic.  But it'll be the only way that the Democrats can prevent a second term (if Trump runs). 

How the states stack up in 2019?  Once seated, there would be a 26 state hold for Trump.  So you have to wonder about the House election in November 2020, and if judges can step into the middle of results (like in Florida) and run out the Electoral College clock.  If the judges could then stall the seating of twenty-odd GOP House members?'d get to 20 January and the VP becomes the temp-President.