Wednesday, 12 June 2019

Trump and Oregon

It came out a couple of days ago that the Trump-2020 team is putting funding up for real campaigning in Oregon.  Some folks think it's crazy, but they admit that Trump has a tremendous amount of money in the bucket already....has very little primary action to worry about.....and he has to spend the money somewhere where there might be a chance of winning.

The 2016 situation?  Hillary won with just over 1-million total votes, while Trump pulled up short with 780,000 roughly.  The numbers say that 70-percent of the registered voters showed up in that race.

Odd factors?  Hillary actually lost in the primary to Bernie......Bernie had 360,000 voters show up, and Hillary only had 269,000 (14-point difference).

If you went through the 36 counties in the state....the majority went for Trump.  The blue counties?  Mostly based around Portland, Eugene, Albany, and Salem (ALL in the NW of the state).  All urbanized votes.

The truth is that Trump needs about 150,000 folks to flip their votes, or for another 5-percent of the registered voters to show up and vote this time around.

The improved employment rate?  From Feb of's gone down to around 4.3-percent (dropping by .7-percent).

Selling Joe Biden in the state?  My suspicion is that Hillary maxed out and Joe can't exceed 1-million votes.  Getting black males and some Latinos to flip over?  That might involve around a quarter of the votes that Trump needs. 

So I don't think it's impossible, and that it might be possible to flip those seven electoral votes over. 

Is the Democratic Primary Mostly Over (Before It Starts)?'s the thing.  Once you get past Joey B (Biden) and Mayor Pete, you seem to come to these three character that the news media project some 'light' upon ('Socialist' Bernie, Senator Warren, and Beto the 'White' Latino).  There may be 22 total individuals in the running, but if you sat around and listened to the general public talk about it.....those five are 'it', and Bernie, Warren and Beto seem to be way down on the list.

So these debates that are starting up this month?  A waste of time?  More or less.

It'll be interesting in certain California, to see if Joey B can beat Mayor Pete, or if some massive swing will occur with Mayor Pete. 

In the south?  None of the five really draw much appeal, and I think you are looking at a dismal number of folks coming out in the primary season to vote on the Democratic side.

The 2016 Bernie-Hillary vote?  It totalled at around 30-million total votes from the primary period.  If this primary period doesn't meet that number?  I would suggest that if it's anything less than 28-million, then there's a serious enthusiasm problem, and virtually guaranteed that Trump will win.