Tuesday, 2 July 2019

Trump and Homelessness

It's a fairly decent page one story this morning.....Trump says he's ready to take on LA, Seattle, and San Francisco. If the cities can't do the job, and the state governments just stand by with nothing accomplished....well, the feds will do it. Correct attitude? I doubt it.

But he could bring three curious measures to the table and really put the city governments of the three cities (all run by Democrats) in serious jeopardy.

First, he could send in a task force and just say accepted drug-use on the streets....won't be accepted by the federal government. You could go and detain 500 heroin users (requiring some judge in the middle) to hold and force rehab upon a guy. 500 out of thousands? Well, the week or two after this....you'd go and suggest more task force members are coming and unless they (the drug group) evacuate the three cities....they will be hauled off. That 'scare' would be enough to do serious talk of leaving the three cities.

Second, he could put 'hurt' and 'pain' into the drug market, and start upping the charges on dealers. It wouldn't take much take down a hundred dealers in San Francisco. They'd be replaced in a matter of hours....but you could have a second group of federal cops ready to go, and haul them off as well. You could even go and create a special wing for dope dealers at some federal prison and make it a pretty tough sentence to suffer through.

Third, you could go and start a long discussion in public about mental health, and the crappy attitude of just letting these folks suffer. Eventually, it'd trigger the public to accept facilities and life-time stays. I know.....it's something people dislike, but the idea of letting thousands of nutcases wander around and possibly be a threat to the public is not that great of an idea.

 And here is the curious thing....the 2024 likely contender for the Democrats is the current California governor (Newsom). If Trump resolves the problem ahead of him? Newsom is toast....he won't be able to get any real support in 2024.

The First Five Primary States

2020 is a bit different than previous years on primary dates.

First, Iowa does remain the 'starter'....but it won't happen until 3 February.  Joe Biden currently leads, with Mayor Pete and Sanders around 10 points behind Biden. 

Second, New York is presently slated for 4 February....while some folks think it'll be tinkered with and pushed back.  The impact here?  Some people think this would be advantageous for Harris (giving her a chance to gain ground after placing back in the pack in Iowa). 

Third, a week after New York will be New Hampshire.  Most folks are thinking that Bernie Sanders will likely win that primary.

Fourth, eleven days after New Hampshire will be Nevada.  Right now....Biden easily leads, with Sanders and Warren around 12 points behind him. 

Finally, you come to South Carolina.  Joe Biden ought win this....but there is the influence of New York's outcome and the possibility that Harris might arrive and pick up more enthusiasm.  Drifting 20 points behind Joe Biden right now are Warren and Sanders. 

I would suggest this....if Joe Biden were to pick up four of the five state primaries, then he's got the lock on the convention (even if he loses fifteen of the remaining states).