My View Of A Trump-Biden-RFK-DeSantis November 2024 Election

 About every week that goes by, I see the odds of a 3-person November election, and even a 4-person election....increasing.

How you'd develop this?  If you had a dozen or more states create a barrier for RFK to be on the Democratic primary, or forbid Trump's name on the primary....we'd advance to Biden and DeSantis.  But by mid-summer, I'd suggest both RFK and Trump going onto various ballots in differing states.

It would be nearly impossible to predict an outcome in a state like California....if you said all four were on the ballot, or even having a Biden-RFK-DeSantis situation.  Just having RFK win California alone....would create problems in reaching the 270-point in the Electoral College.

Then you add in a state or two like Florida and Texas, where Trump would likely win.

In a no-win Electoral College situation....ONLY the top three vote-getters move to the House state-by-state vote in January of 2025.  I'm pretty sure DeSantis would be the low guy.

How would Democratic blocks go if you had a choice of RFK or Biden?  Unknown.  Could you have a case where Biden wins the Presidency again, but with less national votes than Trump or RFK?  Yeah, and that would demonstrate an incredibly weak future for Biden's next four years.

This discussion popping up more often?  I'd say between now and January....it'll be openly discussed.

A Billion-Dollar Loss Story

 I'm into Spotify (the podcast operation).  I'll admit....it's probably not more than five to eight hours a month, and I'm fairly picky about who I listen to.  

This past month, the management of Spotify has had to admit that a billion dollars went out to 'hire' (contract) several big-name folks, and this was a colossal failure with marginal listeners.

Who?  Kim Kardashian, Prince Harry/Meghan Markle, and Mr/Ms Obama.  To be honest, there's probably another forty-odd folks....who were hyped-up to the management and they just fell for the 'gimmick' of hiring names without thinking of the people who might be interested in them.

To be honest, after you've heard Prince Harry/Meghan chat for about six minutes.....you probably begin to wonder how they could fill a single hour, or even a weekly 'show'.  

Crappy management behavior by Spotify?  It reminds me of the way that various baseball players and their agents try to sell 7-year contracts to half-wit owners, and a team ends up with a marginal player who might only perform for four of the seven years contract.  

But it establishes an 'end' for the fake promi-folks.  

These podcasts becoming a big deal?  Here's the factor.....classic TV (NBC, ABC, and CBS) has hit some peak and gone into a spiral.  There's just a lot of crap TV and people are looking for something 'different'.  Podcasts fills the void.  

My Reservation-Work Story

 Early in my Air Force career, I worked in civil engineering and was assigned to McChord AFB, WA.  Around the 3rd month, it came up that the fence 'line' on the reservation (not the base) was rusted up and they wanted a team to run around 5,000 ft of security fencing (fresh new wire, posts).   None of us had ever been out to this area (it was off the base by a quarter mile.....to the entrance).

So Monday came, and a civilian in our shop led me and two airmen.  We started at 7:30 AM to gather tools required, and had a vehicle ready by 7:45.  Then we drove.  

You had to exit the base and drive about a mile on some public road....to a gate with a lock.  We had the key....we entered.  From that point, it took 45 minutes to reach this 'end' of the reservation.  

The journey?  As urban as Tacoma was....this was like some 'lost' situation.  We'd come to a fork in the road, and the civilian would say 'turn-here'.  There were probably 20 of these forks.  By the end, I had no reference in my head.  

Gravel/dirt trail.  No signs.  You could never get above 20 mph because of trail conditions.  

So it's about 8:55 AM when we arrive at the site, and yes.....it's probably 1940s fencing there.  Dirt-motorcyclists had discovered the reservation and illegally used it.  It made sense to replace the fencing and put up 'forbidden' signs.  But I looked at the immense journey it took to get there.   

The dozer guy cleared the whole path for us to put up the new fence.  

But the issue is....we basically work from 9 AM to 10:45 AM....then leave for chow, return at 1:15 PM...to work until 3:30 PM....for a grand total of 4 hours of actual work a day.  

Whatever the planning people had suggested for four weeks of work, would never be resolved with four people pulling with only 16 man-hours a day.   We were wasting half the work-day in driving out to this remote site.  

After two weeks of working on this, I was shaking my head.  I was sitting in a marginal Chevy 1.5 ton seat for about 4 hours a day.  Nothing much on the fence was advancing.  So I begged off the crew and just said give me the worst job left in the shop....tar-crew for base streets.   

I suspect that the fence crew was still working the issue three months later. 

The reservation thing comes up the year after I left McChord.  One of the guys from our crew sent me a note (with a pic) over a new 'adventure'.  This reservation thing attracted his attention, and he convinced his GF, and another airman couple....to do a camping trip out into the reservation.  

They camped for a whole weekend....somewhere near a stream.  Whole place was full of mosquitoes.  He sent me a picture of the four (at the conclusion of the trip).....each person had at least 100 mosquito bites.  

My Humble Thoughts Over Michelle Obama Running (The Rumor)?

 For about four months, there's been persistent rumors of Michelle Obama getting into the primary of 2024, and running because of Joe Biden's 'problems'. 

Frankly, I see the story as BS. 

My four observations?

1.  She's never held an elected office...ever.  Not even a mayor job (like Mayor-Pete).

2.  Speech-wise.....she has probably given forty-odd speeches but there's nothing remarkable.

3.  If you did ask her any foreign affairs questions.....I don't think she can much of anything beyond pointing to the location on a map.

4.  If she's the 'sole' person for the primary, beyond RFK who never gets mentioned....what's that say about the depth of the party for big-time players?  Note, from this past week, Governor Newsom said 'NO' that he's not running.  

So I see this as a lame PR thing that some journalists are hyping her for President, when the odds are heavily against her.  

But let me add two unusual factors.  First, selling her to the black community won't be that easy because they see her as having 'status' (wealth,  college).  Black guys will even bring up this Obama drug-stuff and gay rumor.....to say she didn't see all of this happening.  

Second, she's never really encountered a debate.  Donald versus Michelle?    

It's a curious BS story, but it just isn't a likely thing.