Joseph Rainey, Slave, Barber, Capitalist, Congressman?

 This is one of those stories that ought to be made into a movie.  I'll limit it to 40 lines, but it ought to be a full hour of discussion.

Joseph Rainey was born as a slave in Georgetown, South Carolina in 1832.  His dad had this unique path laid out.  The father had also been a slave, but had worked up some deal where he apparently had talent as a barber. The deal was....'dad' could work independently, and a portion of his outside income went to the owner.  Most historians leave out the wealth side of this story, but it's assumed that 'dad' wasn't making this as a loss.  He had real money flow going on.

At some point (1840s), 'dad' had made the kind of income to go in and purchase freedom for himself, the wife, and two sons.  

The father and the sons?  They banded together and continued the barbering trade.  True capitalists would be a good description of the three.

Around age 27, Joseph set off and went to Philly.  He met up with a gal who was of West Indies heritage....marrying her.  They'd return to South Carolina a year later.

On the bad luck side, this would come right as the Civil War started up, and Joseph ended up being conscripted as support for the state during the war. 

About a year into this period, Joseph found the right ship....offered over the cash to get the family onboard, and left for Bermuda.  What got him to the escape point? Capitalism.

There, he went back to the barber business.  Five years pass.  The barbering business has done well...his wife has a business-front as well.  Joseph is recognized in the community (respected).  He may not be 'educated' but he understands business fronts, capitalism, etc.  At the end of this five year period...the war is over, and he decides to return to South Carolina.  Most folks would have just been happy where they were....he wasn't.

He goes back into the barber business in Charleston.  Two years pass, and he's now (1868) inside of the group who is writing the new South Carolina Constitution.  Former slave, barber, entrepreneur, capitalist.....just never accepting things as they are.

1870 comes around and he's elected as a state-senator, and heads up the state finance committee.  

A special election comes up in 1870 (just months after getting up for the state-senator job) and he ends being a Representative for the state....going to DC, as the first black House member.

One-term guy for the state?  No.  He does four terms in DC....leaving in 1879 (age 47).  He'd work for two years as a federal agent for the Treasury Department, and later work within the investment/banking business.  

He passed on in 1887 (age 55).  

The curious thing about his life on the return to Charleston and the years in DC....he was a Republican.  

It's a great story about a guy who just never accepted things as they are, and continued to pursue a better life (even as a barber). 

The Trouble With Numbers and Math

 Just a comical but factual thing to lay out.

Cambridge University decided that every single kid in the place (9,000-plus students) needed to be Covid-tested. 

Results?  ALL 9,000-plus students were identified with a positive (probably scared the crap out of their parents as the word came out).

We aren't talking 25-percent, or 50-percent.  This was 100-percent (in the end) with a 'positive' given on the test result.  

A second test was administered at this point.....it's best not to ask why they didn't accept the first test results.  In the second test?  NOT one single person was found to be positive.

The odds that both the 1st test and 2nd test are inaccurate?  Well....that's the thing you'd ponder about.

Logically, even on the second test, you should have had 1-percent show up with a true-positive.  

Will they do the test a third time?  The hint is no.  But I'm estimating the math professors are sitting there and grinning.....you can't have two tests, where one is absolutely 100-percent positive, and another being absolutely 100-percent negative.

Just something to think about. 

Example of a Good Stock

 Back on 8 Jan 1999, you could have bought 1-share of CNI (Canadian National Railway) for $4.55.  

On 15 Jan, 2010 (11 years later), the stock could have been sold for $26.83 per share.  

This week, that same single share would have been worth $110.65.  

You can do the math for 1999....buying up 500 shares, for less than $2,500.  Today, you'd have $55,325 (a 21-year investment situation that started with roughly $2,500 and nothing else put against it the whole time).  

I should add.....none of that gain has anything to do with the 1.5-odd percent dividend that you would have gotten yearly from the stock (that's the cherry on the cake).  

Still a good stock for today?  Well, it's more expensive.  But if you did the math....just 100 shares at 110.65, you'd spent around $11k.  

The odds in 2030?  $260 to $280 per share (unless it splits), so your value around the 10-year point ought to be near $28,000 (I'm picking the more optimistic view).  On top of that, you'd still collect the 1.5-percent dividend yearly (change in your pocket).  Even if it splits....you'd be holding 200 shares (not 100) and the value would be fairly near the same level.

The other plus-side?  Railway traffic for commercial goods in Canada isn't rocket-science, and there's presently no real competition or weird technology development to shake the market.  This is in a league by itself.  

Day-trader material?  No....it's the kind of stock (pricing currently) that you'd buy for a long-term hold.  

Downward trends?  You can pull up the chart, and readily predict about once a year, there's a correction period where it drops 10 to 15 percent (that usually scares the crap out of people).  In virtually every single drop, there's a 90-day recovery period, going back to the original level.....and then it adds on another 5-to-10 percent over the next 90 days.  The point is not to be that worried over a regular downward correction period.  

(Yeah, I do own 180-odd shares of it and consider it a long-holder.)

Looking For Flu Deaths? You Won't Find Them

 Just something to think about.

San Diego County (California), reports on 5 November, for the entire year on flu deaths....NO deaths.

In a normal year, up until the first week of November?  It would be three deaths (more or less, using 2019 data).  For all of 2019?  108 flu deaths in the county (the last two months of the year were a 'rush'). 

This is from KPBS.

You can probably go down every single county in the US, and find the same trend....virtually no flu-related deaths in 2020.  

Hunter Under Tax Probe?

 What's being said is that a fed investigation started up (US Attorney in Delaware).  Hunter Biden's state of residence (at least in the past) has been Delaware and that's where he would have filed state tax returns.  I won't vouch where his state of residence is today.  

Issues?  Presently (2020), if you work overseas for anyone....you are allowed 107,600 of tax-free status.  Once you go over the 107k.....the US tax code starts taxing you.  Each year, it goes up around $2k.  So in 2018, it was $103,900.  In these years of 2013/2014, I would take a fair guess it was around $96k a year.

The problem here for Hunter.....there's likely all this compensation stuff (free residence, etc), and there are certain ways that it can be handled, and reported.  If he had a 4-star tax accountant....they'd write the script and he'd just walk through this stupid fed investigation with no issues.

I would suggest....so far, Hunter hasn't been that bright, and those stupid laptops that he left (which are in the hands of the FBI).....gave a lot of tidbits over his travel business, his real pay, and compensation matters.  He might have written a decent tax return to avoid trouble, but if the FBI has dozens of other trails laid out and an extra two or three million dollars a year which he didn't declare....he's got trouble.

Compensation going to a foreign country business front?  Some guys would go and make such a front and fake their returns enough to show marginal income, while their business front was the real vehicle of making income.  Did Hunter get into this game?  Unknown.  Again, it's the matter of what the laptops did show as a trail.

Finally, you come to this one odd thing with that lawsuit over the kid that he had with that DC gal.  Hunter had to show what his value was in court and swear by that.  If stuff comes up to show that was a lie?  Well...the DC gal will take him back into court and he's a bigger mess to clean (not just the FBI).