Saturday, 9 November 2019

Bloomberg in the Mix

What's been said now....papers have been filed in Alabama (Super-Tuesday event) for Bloomberg to be on the ballot.  No one says anything about Iowa's caucuses, or the primaries in Nevada, South Carolina or New Hampshire (the first primary states).

So he's participating, but in a different sense.

Skipping the first four?  This sounds like the Jeb Bush strategy and how he was going to prevent a sure-fire winner before the convention, and the convention would end up making a decision on it's own.

Looking at Super-Tuesday....some things stand out.

Alabama:  Right now, from the present one is standing out, although Warren might get up around 25-to-30 percent.  Bloomberg?  I don't think he can do much in the state.

Arkansas: Pretty much the same story.

California: Bloomberg could win in this state.

Colorado:  Mayor Pete win likely.

Massachusetts: Likely win for Bloomberg.

Minnesota: Biden win.

North Carolina: Biden win.

Oklahoma: Biden win.

Tennessee: Biden win.

Texas: Biden win.

Utah: Biden win.

Vermont: Likely win for Bloomberg.

Virginia: Very likely a win for Bloomberg.

So with four potential wins on this day, it's not anything remarkable, and simply setting up the stage for a convention 'pick' situation.

The real question is.....if the convention picks Bloomberg, and he selects Warren as the VP.....what the odds now?

Bloomberg won't discuss the Medicare for all business.  There's no real theme to attract black voters.  And there's the age factor (he's 78 in Feb of next year).  The best odds that I'd give him is that he'd win the same twenty states that Hillary won in 2016, and maybe Florida.  So it might be slightly closer this time around.

I will say's too bad he didn't run in 2016.  That would have made the election more interesting, and he might have been able to beat Trump in that race.