Based on chatter from the White House, they want all non-vax folks in the US military to be dishonorably discharged....if the guy/gal won't take the Covid vaccination.
Several Republicans in the Senate have written language into the budget bill that would forbid that....just giving folks a regular honorable discharge instead.
Odds here? Unknown. Most expect the written language to stay there and be passed.
But if you were to think about this....dragging a guy into a commander's office and the Lt Col discussing how he's going to dishonorably discharge you over the vaccination....why wouldn't this escalate into a violent confrontation?
There's no difference between dishonorable X and dishonorable Y, other than you probably will get a month or two in some stockade for punching the poor guy.
All of this will naturally stress officers out.
I don't see a problem in just pulling out the guy's contract, and just terminating it....with a regular honorable discharge. The general fear of the Pentagon planners? Well....you could be opening up a door where 70,000 people (remember this goes across the board, active duty to Guard/Reserve) walk out in a matter of sixty days and no plan 'B' situation on manpower. In some units, you could be talking about 10 to 20 percent of the unit gone.
The recruitment end of this discussion? It's best not to bring up that issue.