Friday, 28 December 2018

The Trump Tax Return ''Torture"

When the Democrats arrive in January and get the whole hype of getting to Trump tax returns....there's a law which covers this.  It basically says that the heat of committee (not his agents, or lawyers, or staff members).....but the Representative himself or the one who will go and read/review. 

Here's the thing....each yearly return, for probably over twenty years.....has been in the 500 to 700 page situation.  So even for a CPA-House Member to sit there and read the one single year in'd be talking about an entire month.  For a non-CPA-House guy?  Just go and imagine the pain and torture of grasping this 500-page document. 

Making a 1,000 Mile Walk With a Kid

In the last three months....looking over this migrant 'trek' up through Mexico and leading to the US border, there are a lot of problems and poor-detailed news stories laid out over the event.

So I look today at the second kid who has apparently died from heat exhaustion from this trek (while in US possession).

Most people aren't aware of it, but in Arizona (one of those places where I lived for three years)....there's roughly 110 people (on average) that dies from heat exhaustion, heat stroke, or dehydration.  No one goes down into details but I would take a guess that the bulk are people who didn't grow up in the state, and moved down into the region.

Folks getting all hyped up and angry because 110 people die each year in Arizona?  No.  No one seems to get angry. 

TV folks will often comment about the necessity of carrying water on you, and avoiding the sun in the mid-day. 

In 2017, an all-time record occurred, with 155 heat deaths reported in the state.

Most Americans will admit they've never been to Arizona and can't really imagine a typical July day where the heat might reach 110-degrees. 

From my period in Arizona, I came to four observations by the end:

1.  Concrete and asphalt radiate heat, so if you were walking or jogging in the mid-day period in Tucson (in July)'s probably closer to 115 degrees radiating around you. 

2.  Just staying out of the direct sun makes a ton of difference. 

3.  Never drink beer or wine as your dehydration choices. 

4.  Just walking around for two hours in direct sunlight at noon, with a 110-degree enough to get you going toward dehydration and heat stroke. 

So dragging a six-year old kid along on some 1,000 mile trek to cross the US border?  All you are doing is throwing a set of dice on a gamble that he might survive or he might die.  To walk only at night?  It might be a better choice but then you have to gamble on stepping on a rattlesnake.  So none of this makes much sense. 

The Half-Way Point on Gov't Closure

Until the Democrats sit down (likely to be at least late February), and talk over the 'mess'.....nothing is going to happen.  I don't think President Trump will have an issue in going 100-plus days.  The folks affected? There's probably 2,000 government employees in the DC area who are seriously in trouble by mid-January, and another forty-thousand who cannot survive 60-plus days without a pay-check.

So I'm going to suggest the mid-point resolution likely to come from Nancy Pelosi or her replacement (yes, it's possible that Nancy gets fired by the Democrats by day 60 of this shutdown). 

Basically, the Democrats will agree to fund one-billion dollars for the Wall in 2019, and sign up to a 2020 budget 'promise' of 1.5 billion to be funded.  The President, I think....will earmark the money to only go toward Texas and Arizona Wall construction....leaving New Mexico and California without the Wall, and making part of the 2020 election to wrap up the last of this project (figured to be 2021 to 2023).

The odds of a 100-day shutdown?  Actually, it's probably better than a 50-50 bet.  But this will give Amazon a chance to hold a job-fair and go to recruit these desperate DC folks.  That Arlington Amazon operation will require near 25,000 folks and I just don't see some massive number of new folks moving in and taking these jobs.  I think the bulk will come out of this shutdown situation.