Wednesday, 27 November 2019

The Cartels in 2020

Basically, without people grasping this....a 'war' is about to erupt.  At some point, probably around February of 2020....a 'front' will be established.  Cross-the-border raids?  Very likely, and to be condemned by Mexican political figures. 

Seizure of bank accounts?  Likely. 

Relocating cartel 'chiefs' to Gitmo?  Likely.

Reaction by the cartel in killing some regional political figures?  I would take a guess that bombings and murders will be an everyday occurrence by mid-2020 in the US.  There's law enforcement, mayors, and governors likely to face daily death threats.

Carrying of weapons by Americans?  It'll get hyped up and folks in Texas will make it an everyday act by the end of 2020. 

But here's the thing....drugs are going to be more difficult to deliver to distribution networks, and escalation of prices will start to occur (likely doubling and tripling cocaine prices).

US distribution networks?  If you are working with cartel members, you are helping a known terrorist, and there's likely to be serious jail-time for the distribution networks (no longer just three to five years....maybe you'd face a thirty-year sentence now....aiding a terrorist group).

All of this will be geared toward a public settling in for a war on US soil, and easily re-electing Trump to a second term.  For the Democrats to carry wins in the House and Senate....they will have to support the war, and it's entanglements, or face loss of seats.

If you got a serious coke-habit?  You might want to think about rehab because you won't be able to afford the habit by the end of 2020. 

Trump and the Likely Flip of Black Voters

I sat down over the past couple of days and analyzed the general black population of states, and the potential that 35-to-40 percent of those individuals might be voting for Trump in 2020.

So there's one significant factor can't reliabily predict of that black many are actually registered, and of many will routinely come out and vote.  You might assume roughly two-thirds will show up in a Presidential election and vote.  So out of that figure, you might assume that of the two-thirds....around 40-percent of them are potential Trump voters.

The states where this whole situation might be serious?

There are 13 'states' (discounting DC and Virgin Islands) that the population is 15-percent or

NY state
North Carolina
South Carolina

A couple of additional states where Hillary marginally won, and it might matter:

New Hampshire

The five key states that I'd say that blacks-for-Trump situation might really matter?  Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado. 

There's a limited number situation from 2016, which might lead one to think over the 2020 election and say with the lack of voters for the Green Party/Libertarian Party, and flip of black voters to Trump.....Trump would likely access those five states for additional Electoral College votes.  That would make it nearer to 35 states on the board, five more than 2016. 

If Impeachment Fails?

Around two months ago, most folks presumed that the hearings in the House would result in a packaged situation (3-plus charges) going to the House floor, and passing by 218-plus votes to move to the Senate. 

This week, there's hints that some House members (those running in difficult elections in 2020) are shaking their heads.  No one says the present number, but one might assume it's around five members in this shaky situation presently.  With 235 seats won in 2018, there's a slim 17-seat margin here.

So the likely scenario?

Most House members will return to their home-state today, and spend Thanksgiving in the district.  They will talk to various people, and return with a fresh prospective.  Most folks will tell them that there just isn't much coming out of this hearing business, and they are wondering what exactly has been accomplished so far in 2019 (little to nothing).

I will go and suggest that around fifteen members will appear by the end of next week, and suggest that a condemnation vote would be better, and just derail the whole impeachment hearing business.

Nancy Pelosi (House Speaker) will chat with various groups and count the votes.  I might suggest that she's only sure of about 210 votes, and that ten votes are real shaky, with the rest all saying they will abstain from the impeachment vote.  She might have the numbers, but it's real shaky and if they fail on the vote, it's massive fallout coming.

A week will pass, and the decision will be made to shut down the hearings, avoid the impeachment vote, and just condemn the President (getting all 235 votes). 

Then the news media is stuck with a 'dead' story.  How does CNN go for a full week straight....telling the dead story with twenty-five 'experts'?  The general public will be laughing over the situation, and the journalists. 

In terms of political value?  The Democrats will have wasted most of 2019 to reach this point, with nothing to show for the days of effort.  In simple terms, they got used by Trump yet again.