Tuesday, 19 February 2019

A Bernie, Trump and Schultz Election?

Let's suggest that Hillary doesn't 'arrive' to run, and this ends up as a simple socialist versus capitalist versus Starbucks kingpin.  The likely outcome:

1.  Bernie and his team can crush most of the normal Democratic voters and their non-socialist candidates.  Without Hillary....Bernie ought to clear through the lesser-known crowd easily.

2.  Schultz doesn't need to match the money count for Trump or Bernie....he just needs to use social media in a smart way, and win toward roughly 20 of the fifty states (my humble opinion).  His strategy is to take just enough of the Electoral College to ensure a second-place vote (after Trump).  In this strategy.....Bernie needs to take eight to ten states.  The election goes to the House because there is no Electoral College winner, and the top two candidates would then advance for a House situation.  If you have a choice of Trump or Schultz......House-wise, I think 25 states can be procured with the state-by-state 'count', for Schultz.

3.  For Schumer and Pelosi, I doubt if either want to deal with Bernie, as President....so their 'hope' is based on Schultz winning in the end.

The Alma Story

This is one of those historical essays that I'll write and tell a particular story that you probably haven't ever heard of.

So....in 1862....out in Kinniconick, Kentucky....Mollie Alma Bridwell was born. Considered a fairly clever teenager....around the age of 16 to 17...she got converted into the Wesleyan Methodist Church during a revival. 

For most who've never been to a revival....there tends to be a lot of intense talk.....heated chatter....and continual prayers for lost souls (a lot of them).  Alma's take probably went to the extreme level. 

Her family was doing well, and two years later....she went off to the ladies college in Millersburg. Upon graduation, an aunt who lived way out in the Montana Territory (very unchristian surroundings) tried to convince the six other sisters of Alma....to come out give life a go in the territory.  Alma was the only one who seemed up for the adventure.

She ended being a teacher in the local community.  Later on....she moved over to the Salt Lake City Methodist seminary. There, she met up with Kent White, a student in the seminary, and married.

Over the next decade or so....she and Kent did well....living in the Denver area where Kent was a minister for the local church.

Around 1907, there was some friction going on with the Methodist and Pentecostal community, and someone with farmland had decided to start up a religious community in  Zarephath, New Jersey.  The name of the new religious 'movement'?  Pillar of Fire Church.

I know....it's a catchy name.  In simple terms, these Pillar of Fire folks felt that the Pentecostals were simply not fired-up enough.  Yes, as radical as you might see Pentecostal folks of today....in this era....they were actually seen as laid-back and 'chilled-out'.

Alma became the bishop and chief spokesperson of the Pillar of Fire Church.  The curious path ahead for the church?  Well....they were to be by 1918....solidly hooked up to the Ku Klux Klan (KKK).  Yep....real solid with them. 

It would be correct to say that virtually everything Alma preached upon....revolved around white Protestant women and the Bible mandating supremacy, and suggested immigrants were not of the same level.

Throughout the 1920s and 1930s....the Pillar of Fire Church continued on.  Alma attended Klan rallies and cross-burnings. As many of the religious figures were doing in this era....Alma didn't hesitate to suggest prophecies were underway, and key events were to occur.

What aided growth of the group?  In the late 1920s.....they went out and purchased a transmitter and radio equipment in Colorado, to send their message across central Colorado.

All of this continued on for the most part until 1946 when Alma passed on.

The church today? Still in existence, but with mostly a neutral theme.  I kinda doubt that the vast majority of members have ever heard of the racism slant or the KKK attachment. 

Bernie, 2020

Done.  As of today, Bernie is in the 2020 race.

What does it mean? I will offer six observations:

1.  From the nationwide list of sixty-odd million potential Democratic voters...at least 25-million would be hardcore Bernie supporters.  It differs state to state though.  In Alabama, Bernie pulled 76,000 in the primary of 2016, with Hillary pulling a 4-to-1 lead over him. 

2. Primary-wise, With the exception of South Carolina....Bernie, I think, can win three of the first four primary states...which gives him a dramatic lead in the first round of the primary season.

3.  With Bernie there, it's basically a capitalist versus socialist election, and a quarter of the typical Democratic base will be angry and frustrated about this dividing line.  I hate to suggest it, but some of those people will go and vote Green Party.

4.  Bernie will be 78 years old in the fall of this year.....meaning for November of 2020....he'll be 79 years old.  It's hard to say this is a positive.

5.  If I were Hillary Clinton.....I'd look at the situation, and go right back out in 2020, to run against Bernie....with a 50-percent budget compared to 2016, and run mostly on social media and journalists helping me.  It's crazy, but she knows she can beat Bernie in the primary. 

6.  All of this will give the insiders to the national Democratic Party a headache, because they see it as being an open door for Trump to easily win.  Why spend big money on Bernie? 

Illegals Chatter

Back around 2014 (five years ago), the Pew organization did a survey and suggested that 11.1 million illegal people were in the US without a visa or working-papers.  Yale and MIT did a survey and eventually concluded that 22-million non-US citizens existed in the US, without a visa or working-papers. The true number?  Unknown.

The general figure thrown around (state by state) is that roughly one-quarter of the total non-citizen illegal population....reside in California.  If this were true, you can figure it's around three million spread around the entire state.  Texas comes in second with around 15-percent (note, these percentage numbers are from 2014, and it's difficult to say it's still somewhat accurate today). In the case of Texas, you could be talking about nearly two million illegals in the state.

What you never see on TV, or discussed by any politician...is the evolution of jobs which were simply safe-guarded and reserved for the illegal migrant.....done at a more 'reasonable' price (figure only 70-percent of the salary, with no social security, no taxation, nothing). 

The economy?  It's basically faked-out.  It's not a true economy.  Part of this issue then goes to the lesser Americans....standing there and in marginal conditions because a minimum of five million jobs or positions of work....aren't being filled in the actual landscape.  The money isn't being filtered to state or federal taxes.  You could walk into a city like Austin, TX....with 10,000 jobs being accomplished in a non-legal way, and certainly not public work. 

This has been accepted for well over fifty years and various politicians (from both the GOP and Democrats) don't want to fix or hinder this economy. 

Ok.....but what did change over fifty years, was drug cartels, and the MS-13 gang out of El Salvador, which moved into virtually every single metropolitan city in the US.  Adding to it....cops found that even if they arrested the non-citizen....charged them....forced them to do two years of prison and sent them home.....they returned (sometimes within a week). 

If it weren't for the drug-cartel guys, the MS-13 folks, the assault/crimes, and the returnees....the politicians might be able to just grin and chat for hours, with no real resolution. 

The wall business?  Let's be honest on that.  It's probably at best.....one-quarter of the entire resolution required.  You'd have to put blunt pain upon Americans individuals hiring non-papered immigrants.  You'd have to have a national ID card.  You'd have to bring severe pain to people registering to vote when they aren't a US citizen.  You'd have to put an end to sanctuary city chatter.  You'd have to lay out a landscape where anyone (Russians, Chinese, Bulgarians, etc) had just as much a right for immigration entry.....as Mexicans or Hondurans.   Trump is simply keeping it simple, but the plain truth is....it's not going to be enough.

'Starbucks' Reality

This is when you are paying more for a Venti-cup of Starbucks (the 20 ounce cup, $2.45), than for a gallon of gas ($2.04 in Alabama for unleaded).

Think about that.

Twenty-five years ago, you could have walked in and asked for a extra-large cup of coffee from some Joe-Blow gas station, and it would have been 40-cents max.  Now?  You are convinced that $2.45 for a Venti-cup of coffee makes perfect sense.