Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Senator Warren in the 2020 Presidential Race

Iowa's caucus matters.

For Democrats, statistically....if you can't pull out a first-place finish, then you have problems.  I just don't see Senator Warren doing well (maybe a 3rd or 4th place finish in Iowa).

So you come to New Hampshire (a definite win for Warren), then Nevada, and South Carolina (both likely to be 3rd place 'wins'). 

As Warren goes off to aim for the 3 March event (nine primaries)....I can only suggest two sure-fire wins (Mass and Vermont).  She might pull a second-place win in California, but for the remaining six states....it's a dismal 3rd or 4th place.

A week will then pass, and you come to the 10 March episode, with six primaries.  She might have a chance in Michigan and Ohio, but it's dependent on the other candidates in the running. 

I expect Warren to shutdown the operation by 11 March, with four to five state wins (at best). 

I admit, if this was an awful weak group in 2020 (like the Hillary/Bernie year in 2016), then she could win forty states.  But the minute you put her up in debates and then mix three or four decent candidates of Bernie's level, then her odds go rapidly into decline. 

But this is mostly geared to get her into a VP or Secretary of State job.