Books I Recommend Over 1920, Crash, And 1930s That Followed

The Day the Bubble Burst by Gordon Thomas and Max Morgan-Witts (1979),basically cover the crash, lot of personal stories and financial analysis.

The Roaring Twenties and the Wall Street Crash by Richard M. Worth (2013), historical piece....covers the build-up in the 1920s, and the weeks after the crash.

The Stock Market Crash of 1929: The End of Prosperity by Brenda Lange (2007), more in-depth viewing of the crash, and recommend for people  with basic ideas of finance.

The Autobiography of Calvin Coolidge by Calvin Coolidge (1929), Coolidge writes this from the position of  being there throughout the 1920s. Might be a hard book to find....unless you look for the E-book.

The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression by Amity Shlaes (2007), absolute go-to book over the era. Start with this one to understand the period.

Hard Times: An Oral History of the Great Depression by Studs Terkel (1970), covers the 1930s, and  depression  effects.

Only Yesterday: An Informal History of the 1920s by Frederick Lewis Allen (1931), covers strictly 1920s....up to the crash.

What Led To The 1929 Crash?

I asked Grok/AI what ten things lead to the 1929 crash, and it listed this:

Speculative Bubble in Stock Prices: Throughout the 1920s, stock prices soared as investors, fueled by optimism and easy credit, engaged in rampant speculation. Many stocks were overvalued, with price-to-earnings ratios far exceeding sustainable levels, creating a bubble ripe for bursting.

Excessive Use of Margin Debt: Investors heavily relied on margin loans, borrowing up to 90% of a stock’s value to purchase shares. This amplified gains during the boom but magnified losses when prices fell, as brokers issued margin calls, forcing investors to sell assets at depressed prices.

Overproduction in Industry and Agriculture: American industries and farms produced goods far beyond demand. Factories churned out consumer goods, and farmers expanded output, leading to surpluses, falling prices, and reduced profits, which weakened economic stability.

Unequal Distribution of Wealth: The 1920s saw extreme income inequality, with the top 1% owning a disproportionate share of wealth. Most Americans lacked sufficient purchasing power to sustain the economy’s growth, limiting demand for goods and services.

Weak Banking System: Many banks were undercapitalized and poorly regulated. They invested heavily in speculative ventures and extended risky loans. When depositors panicked after the crash, widespread bank failures wiped out savings and contracted credit.

Decline in International Trade: Post-World War I, European economies struggled, reducing demand for American exports. High U.S. tariffs, like the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922, further stifled global trade, hurting export-dependent industries.

Overconfidence and Irrational Exuberance: The “Roaring Twenties” fostered a belief that prosperity was permanent. Investors, often inexperienced, poured money into the market without regard for fundamentals, ignoring warning signs of economic imbalances.

Lack of Government Oversight: The Federal Reserve and government failed to curb speculative excesses. Loose monetary policy in the mid-1920s fueled credit expansion, and there were no effective regulations to prevent risky financial practices.

Corporate Malfeasance and Fraud: Some companies manipulated financial statements to inflate stock prices, misleading investors. Investment trusts, a popular vehicle, often lacked transparency, hiding risky or worthless assets.

Trigger of Panic and Loss of Confidence: By late 1929, small declines in stock prices and economic indicators sparked fear. On October 24 (Black Thursday) and October 29 (Black Tuesday), massive sell-offs overwhelmed the market, as panicked investors dumped shares, collapsing prices and eroding public confidence.

I need to add this unique problem....as the banks 'tumbled'....the money on the books in the vaults....simply weren't there.  Over the years/decades...the  clerks and management had quietly 'robbed' what was supposed to be there.  So when some business came in for their pay-day, and usually removed $12,000 to pay the wages....banks quietly said $5,000 was the limit....this caused the rush where everyone felt banks were unsafe (they were...no doubt).  The Fed could have resolved some of this, but had no real guts.

The BIG Cat Story

 Up in the wooded area...between the Pfalz (the state) and North Rhine-Westphalia, a hunter has apparently spotted a big 'cat' from his hunting stand.  

Photograph?  Yes, and it's a bit blurred.

Location?   Altenahr, close to the border with North Rhine-Westphalia.

Officially, the only big cats that Germany is supposed to have....the European wildcat and the Eurasian lynx....which I'd call a medium-sized cat....not BIG.

Puma-chatter?  About every 12  months....someone starts up a rumor of a puma or two existing in Germany, and a month later....it's something lesser.

I Had This Chat With AI

 I asked Grok/AI to  add up all currency-swaps since 1990.  Answer?  47.

Yeah, it comes up a lot with Mexico and Canada.  But we did it with probably 20-odd countries.

Probably half were 'unlimited'.

Of the 47....NONE were default situations in the end.

The worst one could say....several (meaning five to eight) had marginal success or impact.  But none were losses situations.

I will say this AI is a massive tool, and kids in the 5th grade should be taught how to ask questions.

My Feelings About a 4-Guy Marriage

 To make this simple....2024....a youth pastor in Germany was asked to bless  the union of four men to each other at a pubic wedding event.  It's wasn't a state-officiated deal....just a church deal.  So the minister in the past month....via her church (the Evangelical Church Berlin-Brandenburg-Silesian Upper Lusatia) kinda told her....this was not a wise idea.

I paused over this.  Germany is pretty set on 2-person marriages.  If you did bring up a polyamory thing...it's mostly Muslim guys who'd like to go this path (with 2 or more wives).

Are the four guys still hooked up?  No one says much about that.  Maybe having the minister join them up....helped.

My gut feeling...the more folks you try to tie-up to a marriage....the more you have to negotiate, and give up on positions.  You might be spending 12 hours a week....talking some idiot partner (or two) to accept changes.

 

Trigger Words For Me

These are trigger words for me.....which you might utter, and I'll stop the conversation and ask stupid questions:

Free, nothing is really free....so I'll regard your talk as BS.

Now, NOW is really now, but if I question you and it was not NOW....then I'll correct.

Exclusive, typically I hear it  at a store, and immediately regard it as BS.

Limited, sales guy chatter....usually BS.

Urgent, usually uttered by Air Force officers....meaning something that the commander said, but most of the time....BS.

New, if this is in a box....OK. But if it's in the open....I don't regard it as new.

Guaranteed, not always positive.

Proven, over-used, and usually uttered by doctors/nurses a lot.

Secret, having work in intelligence for 20 years....simply over-rated.

Instant, some folks utter this....even if it takes 10 minutes to accomplish 'instant'.

Save, 50-percent of the time.....it's truthful.....50-percent of the time, it'sfake  savings.

Discover, it usually means you did something stupid, and just accidentally found something.

Easy,  uttered on Christmas morning usually....meaning a simple-put-together item...requires four hours.

Amazing, usually uttered by a sales guy....at least six times in 10 minutes.....mostly over-used.

Breakthrough, usually meaning 12-year old kid got smart  and did something.

Risk-Free, I usually question how risk free.

Special, there are probably 300 levels of special, and half of them....aren't that special.

Unique, usually never that unique.

Hurry, another term uttered by Air Force officers....meaning you need  to drop urgent work, to do BS stuff.

Only, I usually regard it as a catch-phrase....meaning 'except'.

Bonus, refer to the fine-print....maybe it is a bonus....maybe not.

Essential, after a while....you realize 14,000 things in life are essential...so it's not that big of a deal.

Powerful, there are probably 300 levels of powerful, and it might not mean much.

Safe, used a great deal by Air Force officers....meaning safe enough that even a 7-year-old kid can't be wounded. 

Results, with a results-index....you can might be mildly excited by what people call results.

'Ballz' Story

I sat this morning....reading over this story.

 Basically....a trans-lady had to be checked out by security at JFK, and the security gal (I assume) was a bit 'rough', and hit the 'ballz' of the trans-lady.

Naturally, this hurt the trans-lady, and she started sobbing.

This event will traumatize the security lady....maybe for the rest of her life.  Maybe enough, that she can medically retire from stress.

Really, being a security person....would not be on my top 10,000 jobs now....out of fear of ballz-whacking.

Explaining A Currency Swap....Not A Bailout (The US-Argentina Deal)

Several weeks ago....it came up where Trump signed a deal involving $20-Billion with Argentina, and folks got all bothered by it.  Scott Bessent laid out the deal in simple fashion yesterday.  Looking it over....I  simplified it  as  well. 

So....imagine you and your buddy both have candy stores, but in different countries. You’re in the U.S., so you use dollars to buy your candies. Your friend is in Japan, so they use yen. One day, you both want to try selling each other’s candies in your stores, but you need the other’s money to buy them.

I should  state here....you kinda trust your buddy enough to take  this  action.

A currency swap is like a deal where you agree to trade some of your dollars for your friend’s yen, and they trade some of their yen for your dollars. You both agree to use this money for a while.  It could be six months....it could be a year....it could be 2 years.  You set  out to buy candies for your stores. You also agree to trade back the same amount of money later, so you get your dollars back, and they get their yen back.

$1,000 laid down,  and the 'end'  phase is to have  $1,000-plus.

For example:

You give your friend $100, and they give you 10,000 yen (pretend that’s equal).

You use the yen to buy Japanese candies for your U.S. store.

Your friend uses the dollars to buy American candies for their Japan store.

After a year, you trade back: you give them 10,000 yen, and they give you $100.

Sometimes, you also pay a little extra to each other, like sharing a few candies as a thank-you for the trade. This extra bit is like the “interest” grown-ups talk about.

This swap helps you both sell new candies without having to find dollars or yen somewhere else. It’s like a fair trade to help your candy stores grow.

The odds here?  You end the deal....with the same level  of money you started with and probably have 1-percent to 2-percent more.....maybe in a crazy candy market....you find 5-percent extra.

Can you lose?  Oh yeah....if your buddy was not honest, or the candy market dissolves.