I asked Grok/AI what ten things lead to the 1929 crash, and it listed this:
Speculative Bubble in Stock Prices: Throughout the 1920s, stock prices soared as investors, fueled by optimism and easy credit, engaged in rampant speculation. Many stocks were overvalued, with price-to-earnings ratios far exceeding sustainable levels, creating a bubble ripe for bursting.
Excessive Use of Margin Debt: Investors heavily relied on margin loans, borrowing up to 90% of a stock’s value to purchase shares. This amplified gains during the boom but magnified losses when prices fell, as brokers issued margin calls, forcing investors to sell assets at depressed prices.
Overproduction in Industry and Agriculture: American industries and farms produced goods far beyond demand. Factories churned out consumer goods, and farmers expanded output, leading to surpluses, falling prices, and reduced profits, which weakened economic stability.
Unequal Distribution of Wealth: The 1920s saw extreme income inequality, with the top 1% owning a disproportionate share of wealth. Most Americans lacked sufficient purchasing power to sustain the economy’s growth, limiting demand for goods and services.
Weak Banking System: Many banks were undercapitalized and poorly regulated. They invested heavily in speculative ventures and extended risky loans. When depositors panicked after the crash, widespread bank failures wiped out savings and contracted credit.
Decline in International Trade: Post-World War I, European economies struggled, reducing demand for American exports. High U.S. tariffs, like the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922, further stifled global trade, hurting export-dependent industries.
Overconfidence and Irrational Exuberance: The “Roaring Twenties” fostered a belief that prosperity was permanent. Investors, often inexperienced, poured money into the market without regard for fundamentals, ignoring warning signs of economic imbalances.
Lack of Government Oversight: The Federal Reserve and government failed to curb speculative excesses. Loose monetary policy in the mid-1920s fueled credit expansion, and there were no effective regulations to prevent risky financial practices.
Corporate Malfeasance and Fraud: Some companies manipulated financial statements to inflate stock prices, misleading investors. Investment trusts, a popular vehicle, often lacked transparency, hiding risky or worthless assets.
Trigger of Panic and Loss of Confidence: By late 1929, small declines in stock prices and economic indicators sparked fear. On October 24 (Black Thursday) and October 29 (Black Tuesday), massive sell-offs overwhelmed the market, as panicked investors dumped shares, collapsing prices and eroding public confidence.
I need to add this unique problem....as the banks 'tumbled'....the money on the books in the vaults....simply weren't there. Over the years/decades...the clerks and management had quietly 'robbed' what was supposed to be there. So when some business came in for their pay-day, and usually removed $12,000 to pay the wages....banks quietly said $5,000 was the limit....this caused the rush where everyone felt banks were unsafe (they were...no doubt). The Fed could have resolved some of this, but had no real guts.
No comments:
Post a Comment