I Got This 1860ish State Of Mind In My Head

 "The Democrat Party has transformed California into a modern day Confederacy and the Mexican Flag has become their 13 star battle flag to keep cheep labor."

-- Via Twitter, Free_States_of_America

I pondered over this comment today.  Via my military years and association at times with Californians....it is obvious that the state is bundled in some way...into one state, but geared to be five-to-six different states...some liberal....some conservative....some heavily-connected to Mexico.

There's no doubt that California surged ahead in the 1980s/1990s....with a lot of cheap (illegal) migrant workers in the mix.  A couple of years ago...I was reading a summary of a house-renovation project....where a guy needed around $100k of work done. Some of the work (like electrical) was pro-stuff....but the majority was illegals at work, and the guy saved in the range of $30k in the end.  

Back in 2017....before Covid....Pew did a research project...saying in the LA area....there were around 1-million illegal migrants. This being before Biden....you have to figure from 2020 to 2024....probably 500k additional illegals ended up in LA (as a minimum).

So here's the odd factor at work....if ICE came in and simply arrested 10,000 of the 1.5-million....it'd likely shut down construction, and daily operations at restaurants, bars, grocery operations, and such.   I'm not even talking about the other 1.40-million.

The state, county and city all tied into the mess, and unable to unlock the handcuff?  Yeah....that is part of the gimmick.  You can task the LA mayor, and city council....they've made promises which they can't really untangle.

This threat by President Trump to withhold fed-funding (I assume of public safety money)?  Well...Governor Newsom said no....if you do that....we will withhold money that was taxed and supposed to pass onto IRS/the feds.

I pondered upon this issue.  You as the business....hand your taxed situation over to IRS...NOT the state guys.  So the bulk of taxed situations....Newsom can't touch or grab.

The money that Newsom can grab?  It has to go into banks...which come under fed regulations.  I'm pretty sure none of the banks will cooperate with Newsom and HOLD by California orders.

All of this sounding like 1860?

Well...lets examine the facts.  Following Lincoln’s victory in November 1860....seven Southern states (South Carolina, Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas) seceded from the Union between December 1860 and February 1861.  They formed the Confederate States of America. South Carolina was the first to secede on December 20, 1860, citing fears that Lincoln’s administration would threaten slavery. The secession was driven by deep divisions over slavery, states’ rights, and economic differences between the industrial North and agrarian South.

So you view LA....building itself upon a massive 'state' over a 40-year period....with assumed (but not legal) rights, economical boom (based on cheap Mexican labor), and some projected economic 'gain'....which wouldn't exist....if you done it with legit labor.  

In a rather simple way....California (LA in particular) has imaged itself as a pretender Confederate state....2025ish in style and design.

What happened to the leadership of the Confederate states in the end (after 1865)?  Well...at the least....they were replaced for several years by agents of the federal gov't.  Some went into court situations....with some years in jail.  

I just look at the LA leadership, with Governor Newsom....wondering how far they really want to take things, and if the state can survive...in a Confederacy-like state of mind.

My final comment?  If you were a innocent business guy who played legit for the past 30-odd years in LA, and looked at the state of violence/destruction going on....with LA cops useless....why would you stay?  

It feels like some 1996 film.... Escape from LA (directed by John Carpenter).....set in 2013.  The script follows the anti-hero Snake Plissken (Kurt Russell) as he’s coerced by the state authorities to retrieve a doomsday device from a dystopian Los Angeles, now an island prison for "undesirables" after a massive earthquake.

Presently....ICE needs a Snake Plissken to reset the undesirables situation in LA.

California 'Insurrection'

 I probably watched about 75 minutes this AM of riot-crap out of LA.   So four observations:

1.  If you were a owner of a business....riot-damage/fire, and the insurance guy showed up on Monday....assessing it was a total loss of your quickie-mart, but the check won't come for 90-to-120 days....what's your future?

Stay in LA....leave LA?  

I'd take the $400k check and leave.  Reason?  If you stay and rebuild....the insurance company rate....will at a minimum, double. 

So I'm guessing here...out of the fifty-odd structures heavily damaged....most all will not fix anything and just leave by October (when the check comes).

2.  Cop gets off-duty at 7 AM....presents his heavily damaged car to the under-staffed mechanic crew for the station (30-percent manpower cut because of under-funding by the mayor)....with the back-window gone...some fire damage....enough for the mechanic to say he and his contract body-shop/paint-crew need a week and $10,000 to cover the repair.

Chief assesses 12 cars from his station, and entire city says near 50 cars requiring work.

Question is....does the mayor have $500,000 to cover just one night of riots?  Repeat nights over six weeks?  $10-million laying around?

No, and just admitting this....will be a problem for the public to accept reality.  

3.  If you asked a non-California resident....what insurrection looks like?  This is it.  This is the crew that you need to send off for five years of fed-time in prison.

4.  Finally, whether the regular cops agree with Mayor Bass/Gov Newsom or not on ICE goals....they are now in some target zone and treated like ICE.  

I don't see the pro-migration strategy lasting long with rank-and-file police.

I also question....if you were injured in this riot business (as a cop)....there's a high probability that you will claim injury status or PTSD....getting some early retirement/medical pension, and putting LA/state of California deeper into a financial crisis.  As bad as cash flow is now....it can only get worse.  

Crystal Ball

 Within the next ten days....I think that Trump's crew will find a position to deny fed funds to California law enforcement (both state/local), and cut the funding 'off'. Financial officers across the state will go into a panic because they don't have the funds to pay salaries.

Figure $70k for a starting-up policeman in LA.  A guy with 15 years?  He's probably making $90k a year. 

In addition.....various issues at the same time will pop-up where city council/county commission folks are detained by the FBI, with charges thrown at them.  Some will use threatening language....getting them into a no-bail situation.  

Reactionary judges trying to undo the situation?  They will find themselves disqualified.

By mid-summer?  It'll be as close to civil-war...since 1865...with more than 10,000 charged-up on a fed situation.

 How long will state/local workers work....if the system is cash-flowed down to marginal numbers?  That's really the question to ask in July.

Working in fire season....into the mix?  I'll predict that insurance companies go into a massive reaction....terminating policies left-and-right.

None of this makes sense for stability....something that exists in 49 other states.