Sunday, 8 July 2018

Hillary: 2020?

There's a piece in the NY Post which suggests that Hillary Clinton is getting ready for a 2020 Presidential run.  I know....it's pretty crazy, but there are some elements to consider.

First, she still runs a super-PAC, and it's still active trying to get funding.

Second, in her messages to the public.....she never says it's over.

Third, I think she gets info handed down on the timing of the Mueller episode, and that the real court action against President Trump is timed for the fall of 2019.  In her mind, she could contemplate President Trump being in some weakened stage, and making the announcement in late fall of 2019....that he won't run.

Problems with this scenario:

1.  She's four years older, and less healthy.

2.  The low intensity campaign of 2008 and 2016?  Likely to repeat in 2020.

3.  There are at least three major players (two from California) that I see running in 2020's primary for the Democrats, and real competition is a no-go for Hillary.  She would need the DNC to tell them to step down.  In fact, she would need Bernie to swear that he won't run again.

So you add this scenario up.  Lot of Democrats are taking the red-pill or walking away from the party.  Lot of socialism talk by the far side of the party, which doesn't sell well.  A Trumpless campaign?

I would go and predict the lowest turn-out in sixty years (maybe even a hundred) if this turned into a Hillary race, with Trump out.  The fakeness of the GOP?  Troubles would increase and it'd just create a massive disconnect with the general public.

But, this all leads back to a Democratic Party without a strategy or vision.  And Hillary could easily lead the 'blind' party to an end-point.

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