Sunday, 15 October 2017

Trump Playing Four-Dimensional Chess

Just to explain the Trump-Iran nuke deal in simplicity....it works like this:

1.  You have a draft-law which Senator Bob Corker (R, Tenn) wrote with Senator Cardin (D, Maryland) that deals with the Iranian Nuclear Treaty situation.  It basically says that the President will certify or decertify the deal and that the Senate will not have an open vote on the treaty written. In essence, the Senate didn't want to discuss the way that the treaty was written.  It'd only cause trouble.  President Obama didn't want this problem, but it passed with 99 votes for and one against (Senator Tom Cotton, Republican).  So the President (Obama, at the time) certified the treaty and passed the mess onto President Trump. 

2.  President Trump will decertify the treaty.  That means because of the Cardin-Corker wording in the law....the Senate now has 60 days to discuss this and go into some direction, or do nothing. 

3.  In the view of the intellectual world, and the EU (especially the Germans), something needs to be done to resolve this or go back to the nifty treaty written.  Well...it's not Trump's dilemma.  It's the Senate's job, which it avoided in 2015.

4.  What happens next?  If the Senate cannot reach another conclusion....another fake draft bill....in this sixty day period period (between now and Christmas), then the thing falls apart and no treaty will exist. Remember....only the Senate can be the final word on treaties....NOT the President. 

5.  President Trump is merely pushing the buttons of Corker, Cardin, and forty-odd individuals who are hyped-up for keeping the treaty on the books. 

What I think will happen?  Corker leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and he needs to write up a simple twelve-line piece that says the Senate will accept responsibility of the treaty, then go and get McCain lined up, with the two independent Senators, and one mystery GOP senator....sign off the bill and then get the house to go along with this. 

Oh, but you also need the bill to pass the House....where you need twenty-four GOP members to vote with each Democratic House member.  You probably won't find 24 members this friendly.  If Trump threatens to veto the House/Senate draft?  Well....you'd need two-thirds of a vote in each, and it'll be a truly amazing thing that get that many votes lined up. 

Hmm, yeah, that might be a problem....unless of course you agree to tie this to some tax reform package, health-care reform deal, or Wall-construction package. 

Yeah, you can see where this Iran-Treaty business and the Corker-Cardin-Law is heading.  You will have to deal with Trump to fix this treaty business, and if you don't....it's not Trump who gets blamed.  It's the Senate.

It took Trump a year to learn how to play the Senate games.  At this point, I think he's mastered it completely, and they are standing there in some daze.  The thing is.....how many more stupid creations did the Senate create in the past decade....like medical care deal or this Corker-Cardin-Law? Trump might have a dozen of these lined up on the white-board and preparing to drag them along. 

The Research Project

I sat and read a piece from the Daily Caller today.  A George Soros foundation group went out and spent a fair amount of money to hire three researchers to go and survey 'working-class' Americans in five cities....in an effort to develop the strategy for the 2020 national election.

Open Society Foundations?  It's simply a network of groups that use money to build agenda politics.

So the study got published.  The aim of this...curiously....is to look at the plain white working-class voters, and why they drifted over to Trump.

I looked at the five cities involved in this....it's an odd group. Tacoma, Washington (I lived there for a while), Phoenix, Arizona (I lived near there for a while), Brooklyn, NY, Dayton, Ohio, and Birmingham, Alabama (I grew up near there).  Why these five?  Unknown. Maybe it's just luck.  They talked to four-hundred folks.

Birmingham is an unusual place.  Typically....if you were middle-class and working-class....you probably work in Birmingham but you don't live there.  Most folks have moved out of Jefferson County if they have the capital.  People tend to worry about crime....thug behavior...corrupt city officials...and city bankruptcy behavior.  People that live in the county and city?  They vote Democrat on a solid basis...it's been that way since the 1950s.

Tacoma is an unusual place.  From the crowd under forty, I'd say that sixty-percent regularly smoke marijuana.  The industry of the city revolves around three things: (1) the base/Army post situation, (2) the port, and (3) Boeing crowd.  It's a fairly solid Democratic vote.

Brooklyn, NY?  It's an unusual place.  Folks worry about the economy and crime.  You can go back over the past six elections, and they tend to vote Democrat in every single election.

Dayton, Ohio?  It was a one-percent win for Trump over Hillary in 2016. 

Finally, I come to Phoenix.  Phoenix has a general history of voting more so for Democrats than Republicans. 

In the end after the Soros group reads through this business....my suspicion is that they see the need to create a Trump-equal....or a Trump-copy, and just mouth-off everything Trump promises.  The problem is that you'd have to talk about jobs....a topic that hasn't been something that Democrats could deliver upon.  Talk of cutting government services and trimming the budget?  No....it's merely a topic that gets some light discussion and never occurs.

The value of this research project?  I'd have my doubts.  Maybe if they'd gone into small towns in Iowa and Mississippi....to glean a broader prospective, it have had more value.  In this case?  Just more urbanized topics to sharpen the current Democratic message.