Friday, 22 December 2017

Thinking Over Taxes

If you sit and think about the Trump reform on taxes....there are two waves that will occur.

The first wave will start in January, as small, medium and big business operations start to feel some enthusiasm and look at improving their technology, their work-place, or bulk up on employees).  All of this will add onto the GDP statistics, and create a wave that will last all throughout 2018. 

GDP-wise, you ought to be thinking of a 4-to-4.5 percent GDP by the end of 2018.  Right now, for 2017....we probably are talking about a 3.2-percent GDP, which compared against the 2000-to-today numbers.....is FANTASTIC.  If you were comparing against 1980 to 2000 numbers....it's AVERAGE.

The second wave?  That starts in March to July of 2019, when private folks add the numbers up and realize that they are getting an extra $500 to $10,000 back.

A married guy, with one kid, and a wife....making $50,000 a year....you'd be paying $739 for the whole year on taxes. 

Same scenario, with no kid....$50,000 salary?  You'd be paying $2,739. 

Same scenario, with no wife or kid....$50,000 salary?  You'd pay $4,370.

So you start to think about these guys and families in the spring of 2019.  A check for $3,000 as the refund, instead of the $1,200 you were expecting?  The automatic reaction by ninety-percent of people.....spend it. 

This wave will start up across the US with people walking in and discussing a new car.....a renovation project....a new riding lawn mower.....a pool table for the basement lounge....a vacation to Aruba....or perhaps a boob-job for the wife.

By the fall of 2020?  That's the curious thing.  You get into November of the next election period, and see three-million jobs created across the US, and a heck of a lot of enthusiasm for the nation.  Your cousin....the worthless idiot with the degree?  He might actually be working finally, and paying taxes.  Your wife who kept hoping for a 2nd shift at the local plant to hire up forty more employees?  She might get hired on.  Your son might be finally hired-up and working for $15-an-hour. 

For this long two-decade period....we were kinda sitting on marginal enthusiasm and just not getting much in return.  Now?  Things are worth discussing and having higher hopes. 

Movie Topic

I sat and watched the other night.....The Great Gatsby.....the 2013 version with Tobey McGuire.

To be honest, it's the only time I've ever seen the movie.  I tried reading the book back in the early 1980s, and maybe got thirty pages into it, then dumped it.  It just didn't have any real enthusiasm for me.

I was surprised with the 2013 movie because the characters....the story...everything, worked.

So it begs to me a lot of questions. 

For F. Scott Fitzgerald, the writer....it was his 'big' piece.  He published it in 1925, and it got into the 20,000 range for copies bought.  He made a couple thousand dollars, and died in the early 1940s....mostly thinking it was a failure.

It's an odd story then because it got picked up in 1943 by some folks who were wanting publish some books for GI's to read while deployed.  Why?  It's not ever explained.  Someone made the decision and thousands of copies were made up and pumped out.  Then these Army guys began to read it, and got enthusiastic about the book.

In the 1950s, it went through a growth period, and colleges were using for literature pieces.  By the 1960s, high schools were routinely using it.

Roughly twenty years after his death....the book was a classic. 

Fitzgerald is an interesting character because he ended up married to some Alabama gal....Zelda Sayre. 

Zelda, in her early teens, was considered some provocative gal, who deserved a one-ticket to New York City.  When 1920 came along, she was married up with Fitzgerald....fairly reckless (in terms of personal behavior), a heavy-drinker (yes, even in the Prohibition period), and a good example of the term "Alabama-crazy".

By age twenty-five, Zelda was having various issues with the husband, and with life. 

Around 1930, she went off to France, got examined by a mental health guy, and pronounced as being a Schizophrenic.  From that point, she was some clinic or hospital situation, and Fitzgerald was probably finished with writing at the level he was capable of doing.

By 1940, Fitzgerald was dead.  He'd died at age 44.....had two heart-attacks over the last decade of his life, and pretty much consumed as much alcohol as a man could consume.

As much as The Great Gatsby is a classic.....someone ought to write up the story of Fitzgerald and Zelda....it'd be just as much a classic. 

Zelda?  She died in the late 1940s....at age 47.