Tuesday, 17 April 2018

The 2020 "Obama"

Basically, out of thin air, Eric Garcetti will begin to appear in various states....giving speeches and hyping his chances as the Democratic Presidential contender for the primary elections of 2020.

Who is the guy?  Mayor of LA....he was re-elected in 2017. 

The hype?  Well....he's Jewish-Mexican heritage (giving him the Obama-foreign appeal).  His grandparents were Russian-Jews who immigrated (legally) into the US.  He graduated from Columbia University (yep, just like Obama).  He was a Rhodes scholar (just like Bill Clinton). He served as a professor at Occidental College (in some ways like Obama).  He got elected into the LA city council back in 2001 (similar trend to Obama).  And he gives four-star speeches (like Obama).

So the odds here?  I sat and looked at his achievements that get hyped (over the past fifteen years).  Most of what is discussed are social causes (the environment, housing, homelessness, recycling, race issues, etc).  In urbanized areas, he could talk over these feats accomplished and it'd buy in votes.  In a national election, these aren't issues that the bulk of non-urbanized voters would really react upon.

What is being constructed here is the 'solution' for a urbanized President (what President Obama served as), where 70-percent of the voting districts weren't charmed with the product offered, but enough massive vote occurred in urban areas to get the Electoral College votes.  The fact that he's Mexican-Jewish?  It'll play into the election, but that doesn't really say much for where the black vote might end up. 

My general prediction is that he'll end up as the winner of the Democratic Convention, but I suspect that Bernie and some heavy competition will make this difficult.