Monday 7 October 2019

Reforger 2020?

Back in 1969, the US went and held a major military exercise in Germany...which was coined 'Reforger'.  The key to the 1969 exercise was that it would involve all of the US Army troops in Germany, and transport ships/aircraft would bring thousands more. 

Through the years, all the way to May of 1993, there was a Reforger exercise (there are a couple of exceptions in this period, but it was almost yearly).  Most Army guys would describe it as three to four weeks on the go....either to get to the play area, to participate in the 'gaming', and then to return to home station. 

At the conclusion of 1993 exercise, that was generally it.  No one felt an urgent need to do some massive exercise of that size.  Well, up until now. 

What the exercise was mostly about?  That's an amusing part of the story....typically there's no bullets fired or cannon rounds involved.  The 'teams' move from point 'A' to point 'B', then move to point 'C', and onto 'D'....with some end-of-exercise announcement.  It's mostly to say that you could move thousands of troops in a matter of days across the Atlantic, and be prepared for some conflict. 

Today, the US and Germany announced that in the spring of 2020.....37,000 US Army troops will participate in another massive exercise.  They will gather in Germany (via transport ships and aircraft, along with present-day assigned US troops in Germany) and make their way to Poland and the Baltic region.   Both countries kinda admit....they haven't done anything like this in at least 25 year.  I would go and suggest that it's the most massive exercise since 1993. 

Just the US and Germany involved?  No....19 members of NATO will participate. 

Problems? 

Well, let's start with the general hub for the US tank and APC vehicles will be in Luneburg.  That's the hub point.  It's roughly 30 miles SE of Hamburg....the capital of radicals, extremists, and revolutionaries.  Every single group in Hamburg will be focused on Luneburg, and thousands of German police will be required to 'keep the peace'. 

Anger by the Green and Linke Party membership?  Yes, they will voice some concern, and likely call for Germany to leave NATO.  I expect half of the SPD Party membership to agree with that topic.

Harsh journalistic criticism.....that Germany doesn't need these type of exercises?  Probably so.  Public TV networks will do forums over the topic.

The potential failures of the German Bundeswehr to cease movement or operations because of maintenance issues?  That's guaranteed, and I'll even wager that a quarter of all German tanks are red-lined by the 10th day. 

The Greta-kids and XR-kids demonstrating against the military exercise?  More than likely.

So if this ends up as a massive 'goat-rope' (the US term for a 9th-degree mess).....you can look across the German spectrum and identify all of the problems and suggest that Germany is unable to participate in NATO because of maintenance issues, money woes, and public frustration with radicals.  Politically, it would be a thorn for the 2021 national election in Germany. 

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