Friday 14 September 2018

Bloomberg in 2020?

So the rumor has started out....Micheal Bloomberg (billionaire) might run on the Democratic ticket in 2020, against President Trump.

I would offer these six observations:

1.  He'll have to develop a platform, and whether he likes it or not....it has to be combination of platform promises that Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton had in 2016.  So folks might be expecting something new and different, but I just don't see how you'd get around the various factions of the Democratic Party without using the same 2016 'magic'.

2.  From a primary review, and considering that at least a dozen Democratic candidates will be running....he's got problems in at least thirty states.  If you used the core of southern states (Alabama, Georgia, La, Ark, Tenn and Kentucky).....I don't see him winning.  In states like California?  He might face stiff competition.  In Iowa?  I'm not sure if you'd find that much interest.

3.  He would have to go and promise a continual business trend as in the effort of Donald Trump.  The minute you suggest getting tough on business, commerce, and reversing the jobs trend.....you lose respect of the general public.

4.  The black VP?  Well, here's the thing.....in order to get some black voters to return (it's near 30-percent on blacks voting for Trump now).....you have to go and find this mythical black 'magnet' for independents to feel hyped up about.  Corey Booker?  Marginally fitting the description.  Senator Harris from California?  Almost a joke.   You can virtually guarantee though....that it'll be a black VP candidate.  Would this convince black voters to return to the safe Democratic candidate?  No, I have serious doubts over that. 

5.  All of this primary business leading to no clear winner before the convention?  I would suggest that you'd have three or four Democrats standing there with ten to fifteen states each.  So the VIP leadership of the Democratic Party arranging things to fall into place?  Maybe. 

6.  The odds that you'd have two other wild-card independent folks running in the 2020 election, against Bloomberg and Trump?  Better than a 90-percent chance.  I could see someone just putting a massive effort into winning Florida alone, instead of Trump or Bloomberg.  You could easily be standing there in December 2020, with no one getting 270 votes, and this being a state-by-state battle in the House, to figure out the next President.  This being intentionally designed by the mid-term wins here in 2018?  Well....yeah, that's a possibility. 

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