Political Observations

 For the remainder of 2023, I'll predict three things:

1.  Podcast folks will carry the bulk of 'water' for candidates.

In this group, I'd put Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, etc.  

Democratic candidates likely to get invitations?  Marianne Williamson, RFK Jr, and Biden.  I don't see Biden getting on any podcast.  He'll limit himself to one or two controlled CNN or MSNBC.  

On the Republican side?  Nikki Halley, Trump, DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Vivek Ramasramy.  

RFK is very likely to get points via Rogan....I'd go and suggest that nationally....he'll be ranked to 40-percent by December.

Ramasramy is the one guy that I could see moving up and getting  'lift' by being engaged by Tucker Carlson.  

2.  Ranking by states matters.

My suspicion is that by January 2024....RFK has gained enough points to be likely to take California, and probably five to ten other states.  It won't be enough to win at the convention....where the special delegates are a factor.  

But Biden has this one problem.....not showing up to many podcast sessions, or townhalls. It's possible that RFK has a majority of delegates by the convention, and Biden only wins by the super-delegate 'game'.  

On the Republican side?  In forty states, it's really a factor of who gets second place, and I think that Tim Scott matters....taking points from DeSantis.  I also don't think DeSantis can win Florida (probably taking 35 to 40-percent, against Trump's 55-percent.

3.  This being a race where Trump is mostly sitting in five different court cases, DeSantis unable to get out of the Disney-economic-fall crapper, and Joe Biden mostly a invisible candidate?  

Well.....yeah that is mostly true.

So I come to this odd scenario that I still believe.  I think VP Harris will be announced to be the replacement for Senator Feinstein, and Governor Newsom to be the replacement VP (approved by the Senate only because Harris votes as the tie-breaker).  Then Newsom is announced by November to be the sole guy running and Biden out.

Newsom then appearing left and right via the podcast crew?  Yes.  But here's the odd factor.....people are exiting California left and right.  Most residents are disgruntled.  So how would any podcast interview go?  I'm not convinced that a race between Newsom and RFK....favors Newsom.  I think RFK in a debate....would be way too much for Newsom to handle.  

In the end, if this were a DeSantis versus RFK race?  I'm not convinced DeSantis fits into that type of election, or could win it.  And then the other question....if RFK were it, and he picked some really oddball VP (Charles Barkley comes to mind)?  Would that reset things entirely?