If you pull up real estate sites and search over Florida for condos for sale....it's a huge number listed (way more than normal). Why? Well....it leads to odd things:
1. That condo collapse from last year triggered the state gov't to mandate condo associations actually do maintenance and have a pile of money to cover required 'fixes'. That meant your association fee, which might have been $400 to $1000 a month....probably doubled. It also meant that if they found massive problems....they came to you for a one-time pay-up situation...maybe $10,000.....maybe even $40,000.
2. Then the insurance industry revised their quotes....in most cases....going up by one-third...but some even doubled their yearly rate.
So 'Hank' looked at his personal mess to clean up and realized.....he doesn't have the savings or yearly retirement income to cover this mess. Logically, he's got the property up for sale.,
Who would buy into a mess like this? No one.
'Hank' will hit some point by December....realizing that his savings is being drained and association fee is bankrupting him....so he will declare bankruptcy and hand the keys to the association.
What can the condo association do with the empty condo? Nothing.
So from the 240 units of a average condo building...by summer of 2025, the association will probably have 30 to 60 units empty....unable to market them, and now approaching the remaining 180-odd players in the building that they need to pay a higher fee. How high? Well...they already saw a 50-to-100 percent rise in 2024. I would imagine by mid-2025, it'll go to a second 50-to-100 percent rise....meaning a new crew of folks in desperation and talking to a lawyer over bankruptcy by spring of 2026.
The condo by summer of 2026? Of the 240 units....more than half of the units will be empty, and the remaining folks are now in desperate times because their savings is being wiped out. Yep, they will be discussing bankruptcy and handing the keys to the condo to the association. Wave after wave....hitting the market.
Just a ball-park guess, but I would imagine over 300 condo buildings across the state by spring 2027....empty and fenced up. State trying to size up the property and sell the units for $10,000 (over their current value of $250,000)? It wouldn't shock me, but what idiot would go and buy some condo situation like this?
It's an amazing economic story to ponder. All of these had value.....ownership was simplified....association operations functioned as designed. Then one day....it all failed.
My question? Lets say that 10,000 owners are in this situation and lose their property.....getting into serious financial woes. Where do they move and rebuild their lives? Anywhere, but Florida.
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