Officially, a recession is marked by a PERIOD of decline. The signals would revolve around an increase in unemployment, serious negativity over at Wall Street, and the housing market shutting down.
The period discussed usually....is one single quarter where all three elements occur.
Does a recession factor in salary, fuel escalation and increasing cost of grocery goods? Not necessarily.
So, lets talk about the negativity on stocks. Most people will admit their portfolio is negative for 2022, and maybe even since mid-2021....it's been that way.
Let's talk about the housing market. Yes, it is absolutely in decline, with homes now lingering longer on the market. Interest situations make this a risky time to buy a home.
Then we come to this odd situation with unemployment. There are various areas across the US where unemployment simply isn't a big deal. Florida for example....June 2022....rates at 2.8-percent (great number). Louisiana for example....June 2022....rates at 3.8-percent (excellent number). California has dropped from 7.9 percent unemployment in the summer of 2021....to around 4.3-percent in the last quarter.
So it's hard to say unemployment is that bad (presently).
If you did some new definition and dumped in rising prices at the grocery, or for gas? Then you'd have a legit reason to talk recession.
I think this is more of a case that this is a highly unique period of time that we are living in....with normal rules/expectations...simply not working, or making sense.
Yes, we need a new word for recession.....to make this all fit like you think.
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