Tuesday 14 March 2023

How Does a Run On a Bank Really Start Up?

 This is my descriptive 'trail'.

You'd be laying there around midnight when the phone rings.  It's your cousin, who is hyped...possibly drunk....telling you to go into the bank when it opens and remove your money.  Nothing much makes sense....but he says two key facts.  

You hang up....thinking he was just drunk.  Thirty minutes pass, with you thinking about these two key things that he said.

You get up and figure....what the hell, I'll call my church friend....Deacon Bob. Yes, at 12:30 to 1:00 AM....you call him up.

Deacon Bob is married to a gal who works in the bank. 

After about 12 rings, Deacon Bob picks up and you greet him with some witty Bible verse....to launch into what your cousin said.  After two minutes of your chatter....Deacon Bob is quiet for about 20 seconds, then responds that 'yes, there's some issues at the bank'. 

It's not a big bank, but it's part of some 20 bank 'chain' in the state.

Deacon Bob then explains about some bond program, and crappy management by two bank executives, and how they are 100-million into a crisis period.

Deacon Bob then says....things might smooth out and resolve itself.  The bank is looking at selling itself to a sister-bank.  

You thank Deacon Bob and tell him you feel reassured (you really aren't reassured).

After hanging up....you call your business associate and two friends....to suggest immediately removing all cash at 9 AM when they open.

You arrive at 7 AM.....to find there's already sixty people in line.  By 9 AM.....there's more than 400 people in line.

While the bank opens, they are limiting entry to only 8 people at a time. 

As customer 12 exits....the guard locks the door.  Basically....all cash that the bank held is gone.  Some clerk does come out and says they've ordered more cash.  It'll be delivered shortly after 1 PM.  But then comes the key note....things are hectic and you will be limited to only $5,000 on a withdrawal (per week).

This is your basic run script.  

In 1929, business operations that tried to continue on....couldn't get the employee pay situation under control.  On the books, they had a $100,000 in the bank and should be able to walk in and ask for $8,000 a month for employee salary.  Well....the banks couldn't issue the $8,000 and so the commercial operation ceased operation.  One after another....shut down because capital flow could not be accomplished.  

Restarting the flow?  With what cash?  Throughout the 1929 to WW II starting up....there was no cash flow.  The fed?  Either intentionally or just so weakened by the mess....they just left the crap on the floor.  

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