How hard would it be for Trump to win the state in 2020?
From 2016 results, Hillary was able to take 1.75-million votes....Trump was limited to 1.22-million votes. The Libertarian guy? He took 160,000 (roughly 5-percent of the votes). Normally, you'd go and say it's be awful hard.
So you shift and look at 2020.
Trump would have to and convince half of the Libertarian voters of 2016, to shift over to him (giving him 80,000 of those votes). It's quiet possible.
Then you gaze at the map. Hillary won only urbanized counties....the rest of the state (roughly two-thirds of the counties) went to Trump. In the case of five of the Hillary counties.....it was not a blow-out....it was marginally for her.
Toss in some key advertising....the slant on capitalism versus socialism.....Democrats who left their party in the past two years, I think you could suggest 250,000 votes flipping from 2016 to 2020....over to Trump. That would bump Trump slightly over the threshold, and show the state as a red-win state.
The last time that happened? 1984, with Reagan.
But there is one key element since 2004....massive registration and voter turn-out. There's like an entire era that closed out in 2000, and voter-surge occurred in 2004, and has repeated in 2008, 2012, and 2016.
So either you go and convince these older Democratic voters to flip their votes, or to stay home (to send a message).
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