So this is what we know. The new Tom Cruise movie under production....Valkyrie....is supposed to be this true-to-life thriller about the German commander who tried to kill Hitler and failed....and was executed later. The Germans produced a top-class movie just three years ago, which few could replicate or outdo....but the Cruise team of Scientology needed a vehicle where Germans saw Tom as a hero in a German uniform and could accept him....and Scientology. Well....so far $90 million has been poured in (so says Fox News), with another $10 million left to do add-on scenes when the backers saw that it wasn't a 4-star flick or even a 3-star flick at the current rate.
Adding to this mess...the movie...because of the add-on scenes....has been rescheduled for Feb-Mar 2009 now.....and likely to find itself in a period of three or four major releases. When a studio does something like this....they are signaling that it won't make any money and it'll be a joke....which they don't want much publicity or talk about the movie. To advertise the movie....at least $30 to $40 million more needs to be tossed in....so around $130 million will be at stake.
The opinion of numerous folks now...is that it might clear $30-$40 million upon release in the states, and maybe another $25 million in Europe....and DVD sales at less than $20 million (maybe even half that amount). So it won't recover its money back....and may lose over $30 million in the process. The chance of the movie being totally killed off? Well...normally you'd say zero percent. But no one has chatted firmly on the movie much and the pre-60 second clip released....is marginal at best.
So I'm starting to think it could be a non-release and the studio simply takes the loss. This would virtually kill off Cruise's career and ought to be impossible to conceive, but I have a opinion that it will be discussed. Germans are already talking about the fictional parts of the movie and not happy about the situation. Scientology? Well....they aren't shooting nothing but blanks yet.