Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Leave the Gate Open

I'm a statistics guy. The numbers currently....for folks leaving California....forever.....is starting to become noticeable.

From 1 Jan to 1 Jul...California lost around 144,000 folks. That's more than any other state for that period. Course, the number two? New York, which lost 126,000 folks.

This isn't exactly worrying folks....but it could be a trend....a very bad trend. The tax revenue of California is rising. Crime in both LA and San Fransisco isn't going down. Various property issues and job issues are starting to trigger anxiety for most folks that live there.

Lets say that the second half results for California come out in six months.....and its up to 180,000. Then we might have a minor issue brewing. A third report down the road with 250,000 would likely trigger some governor's board to meet and discuss California's future. The same could be true with New York.

Face it....if you were 35 years old and had a chance to move somewhere....would California be at the top of the list? I think most of us would likely turn down the chance. Its nice to visit. Its ok to just tour through....but to live there permanently? Nope.

The amusing thing here is that a huge number of folks are locked in for retirement pensions. If a ten-year trend were to occur and they lost three million residents...the state would be in hardship status. They wouldn't be able to keep pensions for teachers and the state employees flowing for years to come.

So the California dream....is ebbing a bit. And the Bama dream? Strangely enough....surging slightly. The sad thing? Probably 400 of those California guys moved to Bama in 2008.....and that would worry me just a tad. Not that we hate Californians.....but we don't want to create Hollywoodville in Bama.