Wednesday, 21 April 2010

Arizona and the Upcoming Law

There's a nifty little story out of Arizona that will finally make news today. The Arizona House decided to pass a bill that will require anyone running for President (in Arizona)....to show his or her birth certificate. Otherwise...you can't get on the ballot.

There's still a formal vote required, and the governor has to sign the law.

The media gives the indication that it will all pass through and be easily signed by the governor.

Impact? There will be a Constitutional challenge to this within two months. They've got time until November 2012....to have the Supreme Court to toss the law out. Presently, with the way that the court is made up....I don't think the state law will be tossed.

There's also this added impact of another state...especially from the south....passing a similar law. I could imagine at least three states having a law like this in the end.

There are only two scenarios to the end result with President Obama. First, he could just whip out the birth certificate and end all this stupid speculation. A review will likely come to curious oddities with his birth certificate (my own speculation). It might list no one as his father (his mother wasn't on great terms with the guy by the time she entered the hospital). Or it may list the father as a British citizen. With either scenario....I think it's not a challenge to his ability to run...but it tears up the legend that we've gotten used to.

The second scenario is that he doesn't enter his name and does a write-in campaign. With a strong tea movement in Arizona....I wouldn't give him the win in 2012 there. So maybe it's not a big deal and doing the write-in vote is a different but acceptable answer to the problem.

I've generally regarded this challenge to the birth certificate to be a major joke. The problem is that the President doesn't want to end the joke, and few if any folks from the family history come out with supporting stories.