The Sense of a Good or Bad Strategy

If I were the Democrats...and I'd latched onto this idea of getting on the wagon with the pro-Latino vote and getting blacks and women aligned with the party to beat Republicans in the fall...I might start to consider what I gain or lose.

There's an odd tactic that folks are now grasping today with the Democratic party. Some folks don't acknowledge it's just starting up....and some folks are kinda shying away from it very early on.

So lets pause a moment and think about this.

For the 2008 Presidential race...it was around a 95-percent Democratic group that stood solid. Today...we know that roughly thirteen percent of the Democrats...are lining up with the Tea Movement. That's not a positive sign six months prior to the election. What if the the thirteen percent group....talked another seven percent into joining them....and going south away from the party's traditional roots.

Then you have the independents. Out of every three independent votes...two went for the democrats in the 2008 race. This year? I'm guessing one out of three. That means they've lost a fair number of votes across the US.

Then you line up the Latino "power". I totally agree that eight states have a significant number of Latino citizens. They could swing a huge number of votes. But what of the other forty-two states?

Those illegal Latinos who register to vote this fall? Well...that's a problem that invites people to analyze the rolls by November and start to ask questions. If the public woke up in early October and realized 500,000 illegals registered to vote and were on the rolls...this would trigger a huge backlash from half the states.

I'm suspecting that the Republicans have orchestrated some 'triggers' here...to get the Democrats to commit early and without thinking much on a price at the end. In southern politics....this might not be a very smart election strategy. Course, I would agree...in California....it might be real smart.

For those who analyze politics and earn their income via CNN...I'd suggest this...think long and hard about using data from 2008. I think its value currently is zero, and this race is unlike anything over the past fifty years. And if you were really sold on this scheme being smart...consider this in a state-by-state run. If you lose votes in over thirty states...is it worth the effort?

The Dinosaurs That Roam

It won't be on the nightly news tonight, or mentioned much in your newspaper tomorrow....but figures released today....by your friendly Audit Bureau of Circulations...show that the average weekday circulation fell 8.7 percent for the prior six months (as ended 31 March).

In case you were wondering...Sunday circulation fell as well (just over six percent).

The nifty thing is that all of the top twenty-five newspapers in America....showed losses...some more than others, of course.

There's an interesting aspect of this decline. Some folks think that we aren't seeing the full and in some cases bright part of the picture.

There is statistically almost 100 million adults who still happen to read a printed newspaper everyday in America. Even newspaper websites are still being hit at a high record.

So you sit there and try to imagine how exactly these guys will survive on...and you can't project out more than a year or two. Let's imagine in a hostile election year....say 2010, which we are in the midst of now...that some major paper decides to use every single bit of juice and dollar left in it...to help sell a message. What happens in January 2011 with that paper? Can it survive? Can they just terminate another fifteen percent of the paper and continue on...with fewer people reading?

I'm not sure about this anymore. Two years ago...I would have said yes. Today....with marginal profit....you'd have to pick what to print and what to dump. Then you start to irk regular readers who wanted the crime blotter, the regional news, and local sports analysis.

So there's a trend. In six months...let's stand and see how the trend continues along this line. You just might be watching a necessity for the government stand in and offer some financial help...to keep your Boston paper up and running...or your Nashville paper up and running, or your St Louis paper even.

A businessman would sooner or later come to a conclusion that he must be printing something that people disagree with...and find a way to change. But then, these aren't businessmen. In fact, it's hard to even describe them as journalists. You go and figure what they are.

How the System Works

If you took time to notice...some kindly Illinois law makers...yes, democrats...have spoken out and said its time to bring the National Guard into Chicago to "protect" the city. I was kinda laughing over this...basically, they are admitting that the cops are not doing enough and can't possible bring safety to the city. There weren't any comments by the police union...which kinda puzzled me. They typically wouldn't stand and let a statement like this go without a comment.

I believe this is tied to the idea of Arizona demanding more protection to go against the border (3,000 National Guardsmen requested).

If Arizona can make such a request, then Illinois can make a similar request. Heck, Bama could request 10,000 Bama guardsmen to protect dry counties against the terrible business of booze and drinking. California could even ask for 4,000 guardsmen to protect Beverly Hills and the rich elite folks.

It's like a chess game. The house will debate these requests and realize that they can't honor any of these...because they'd have to honor all of these. So the Illinois folks basically checkmated Arizona.

Any of these states could bring their own guardsmen onto the front lines...if they were willing to pay the bill...which none of them want a $10 million a month bill for 2,000-odd guardsmen. And that doesn't include fuel, bullets, or bottled water.