Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Japan: Worst Case Scenario

There are various scenarios that news reporters are generally talking about now.  I think in the last five days....I've heard twelve different scenarios.  Each one had some truth to it, but some fiction as well.  This episode in Japan has potential to go in various directions.

So allow me to present the absolute worst scenario.  All four plants end up in a huge atomic mess.    Every farm within one hundred miles is declared a non-production site....potentially for five years.  Cattle?  Pigs?  Chickens?  You can't sell any of them for anything.

An emergency system to provide back-up power that was lost from the four sites?  No.  The best that they can suggest is that rolling blackouts will be the norm for two to four years.  No one is sure about the idea of building more nuclear power so it's got to be something else.....and coal becomes the only reasonable option but you'd have to buy off the open market (You folks in West Virginia might want to listen carefully now).  The coal plant could be put up in two years and fully operational.....with lots of built-in cost to transporting coal and buying it.

Foreigners living in Japan?  My guess is that they will find ample reasons to leave....and only ten percent remain.  Families of GI's living there?  Half will leave by April, and a fair portion will leave by summertime. If you talk health risks and lack of electrical's a big deal.

Food for the population?  To be in short supply for the next twelve months.  You took out a fair amount of farm land.

So here's the deal.....Japan will start to discuss where to long-term put 500,000 Japanese folks displaced by the entire situation.  Tent cities?  For two years or more?  Rebuilding the country's infrastructure?

Somewhere by July...there will be talk of this deal to allow some of the 500k Japanese a one-time deal to come to the US.  No one will grasp the enormous planning required or the hand out that we'd have to accept.  We are talking about potentially 50k folks....maybe 100k.....maybe even half-a-million....packing and coming to the US.

Somehow, we will do the right thing and take them in.  And this legacy of the episode will start to be some story that America never truly thought much about....when folks were in trouble.....we did what needed to be done.

Maybe my scenario is a bit drastic.....but I'm thinking things are not concluding like folks would hope.  The positive side of this?  If there ever were this chance to get some folks into the US who would work and give 200 percent of their effort each day....making sure things worked right....and that these folks demanded honor in society, then this would be the one time you grab the bull by the horns.

You'd want fifty of these guys for your company and you'd find houses for them....cover start-up expenses....give them use of a car....and extend out the biggest hand possible.  Imagine 500k Japanese folks....jump-starting America....just when we needed it the most.

The Difference

Had the big mess in Japan occurred in the US'd be a mighty big difference.

In the US, we would have started up a congressional lobby for an investigation while the mess was underway and utilized the nuclear plant episode to blame the company, the CEO, the profits given to investors, the Democrats, the Republicans, the Tea Party, and Sarah Palin.

In the US, we would have discussed moving everyone within fifty miles (not twelve miles), and then gone to congress the next day to authorize FEMA payments of $5k to each family per month as part of the compensation.

In the US, FEMA would have been expected to fail miserably as they forced evacuation of folks within the hazardous zone.

In the US, ten percent of the forced evacuation folks would have refused to leave because of looting potential.  Roving cops would have arrested hundreds of people who came from as far away as four states away....just to loot folks.

In the US, fake iodine pills would have been on the market by the second day.  For $9.99, you could have bought ten pills...straight from Mexico.

In the US, Anderson Cooper from CNN would have been seen weeping and asking when the President would be touring the danger zone.

In the US, three hundred media guys would be actively traveling through the forbidden zone on a daily basis and grinning as they did their nightly broadcast.

In the US, everyone would have demanded all nuke plants shut down within a year....then discovered that they were then on a 12-hour pattern of electricity per day, and wondering how that was possible.

In the US, the entire three-hour Today Show would have done been dedicated to the mess for two weeks, then suddenly....everyone would reappear in New York City and act like the mess was finished.

In the US, WalMart would have offered up a Nuke-Emergency kit, which would have cost around $120 (freeze-dried food, two cases of water, some candles, and a fancy radio).

In the US, lawyers would have arrived into the affected area and searched out everyone who had any issues that could be taken into court.

In the US, some rock stars would have put on a charity event via MTV already.

In the US, VP Joe Biden would have continued his trip to Russia and his first comments upon landing back in DC would have been: "What the hell happened?"

In the US, there would have already been talk of permanently relocating folks from the affected area on a permanent basis.  The minute that Bama and Mississippi were mentioned....people would go into fits and claim that it was unfair to force them to such states.  Most folks would have demanded Florida, Arizona, or New York City.

In the US, the CEO of the nuke plant, the FEMA chief, the head scientist of the nuke plant, the chief of county emergency services.....they would have all been fired by the tenth day of the episode.

Finally, in the US....some folks would already be talking about making a movie over the crisis....with Pauly Shore mentioned as the nutty nuclear professor.

Only in America.