Tuesday, 7 August 2012

The General Problem

Rumor has it.....that Mitt is about to pick General Petraeus as his VP.  How much validity would I put into such a report?  Maybe fifty percent.

What the press does say...is that Mitt apparently met with the General in the past week....up in New Hampshire...quietly.

I'm guessing that the Secret Service detail  reported back to their bosses at the White House, and someone kinda hinted that the General met with Mitt.  The President probably stood there for sixty seconds....thinking it was a joke, and then realized it wasn't a joke.  You can imagine the flurry of meetings that then took place.

What if?

The truth?  Mitt could scare the whole campaign team of President Obama now....triggering hours and hours of speculation....with talk from one coast to the other.  Folks would want immediate polling data....what would the General do to the entire election.  At least $500k would be wasted on a dynamic poll to show results in the dozen close-call states.

My humble guess?  I don't think the General wants the job.  He's got a government job already and pretty happy where he is.  What advantage exists here?  If Mitt were to win.....the general would have to stay around for eight years, but he'd be virtually guaranteed to win in 2024 as the Republican candidate.  Would he want to stick around for sixteen years?  You just don't know.

As for the odds here?  If the General did jump into the race....I'd say Mitt picks up five points in a matter of two weeks.  The debates?  The General would tear up VP Joe.....and give Mitt another two or three points.  In the end...I'd give Mitt a 56 percent win over the President's 43 percent.  Without the General?  I think it's closer to 50-50.

Army Vet

For the last day or two....I've followed this shooting episode up in the Milwaukee area.  It was a moment of interest when they came out and said this guy was a Army vet.....but then you start to piece together his history, and I questioned the Army vet status.

This guy came into the US Army in the early 1990s, and spent roughly five years in the military before leaving.  The Army has made a hinted comment that he had some "issues" and leaves it at that.  He was out at least two years before 9-11.  So you add up the numbers and he barely spent five years in, and he's been out at least fifteen years.

Army vet?  Well.....if you use that measurement, then some kid who comes into the Army and spends six days in boot-camp before getting kicked out.....does something stupid twenty years later, and he gets mentioned as a Army vet.....for those lousy six day of boot-camp.  It's not a real status thing.

For this guy?  I'm guessing for the five years that he was in....he probably had a problem with minorities and likely got himself into a few stupid arguments.  I'd also make a bet that he had personality issues and was likely a bit of a nut.

As for the Sikhs?  If you had to pick some ethnic group to move into your neighborhood....these guys would be in my top three choices.  It's hard to find a unfriendly Sikh.    They respect other cultures.  They are fairly resourceful.  And you won't find any episodes where some Sikh has targeted an American.

In the end here, you had another nut, who probably should have been locked up in some mental facility.  Oh, and he was a Army vet.......a long, long, long time ago.

Democracy in America

Out in Tennessee, we've got this odd political episode unfolding.  They have a senatorial election coming up.  They had the Democratic primary, and this unknown character....Mark Clayton wins.  The state Democratic Party of Tennessee wakes up, and then admits that this Clayton guy.....is not one of them.

As days go by, the Democratic Party even goes to the extent of saying that the only way that Clayton won on the primary.....was by having his name first on the list of candidates of the ballot.

This kinda brings up this odd suggestion that if you have a race where no one is really known.....that the mass bulk of the population hasn't seen any of the candidates on TV or read anything in the newspapers.....then they go to the first candidate on the list and just automatically vote for the guy.

Twenty years ago.....I would have laughed at this suggestion. Today?  I'm of the belief that this is possible.  If your name is Adam Adams.....you just might have a better chance of winning an election than Tom Winslow.

Which brings me to the concept of democracy.  When the Greeks sat down and invented this democracy idea....they really couldn't speak to an election where a voter admits he doesn't know either candidate.  There has to be some odd coin-flip which eventually occurs and you pick the guy you will cast your vote for.  I'm sure the Greeks would be shocked over this simplicity and comment on the forty-four ways that a voter should take note of his vote and always be careful with the use of the vote.  Frankly, I don't believe the Greeks would last a minute in 2012 if you brought up the American version of voting.

So if you were thinking about some run for state senator or county commission....and your name was Marty Owens....statistically, things just aren't in your favor.  Just something to consider.