Over the last month, with all the hype going on by the political folks....you are left with two impressions:
1. The postal system is so capable....that you'd trust it with your voting apparatus.
2. The postal system is so f**ked-up, that it'd ruin the 2020 election entirely.
So I'll offer these seven observations:
1. You could mail a hundred breakable items from various points in the US....to one single address, and 99 of them would arrive in one piece. You could bundle up a hundred ballots, and find that fifty of them reach the right people, and fifty disappear. No rhyme....no reason....no statistical data, just plain luck.
2. Lets be honest and admit that probably seventy-percent of the personnel for the postal system....are kind, professional and capable people. The other thirty-percent probably ought to be 'clerking' at some gas station or serving coffee at the Waffle-Hut.
3. Fedex and UPS wouldn't exist, if the postal system wasn't so screwed-up.
4. Probably ten-percent of the population will tell you that they haven't been in a post office in five years.
5. Once you have an utter failure in the works (the day after the election)....how will people react to the post office system? You could have well over 50-million Americans all frustrated and angry. People thinking that they can survive this? They'd probably would be 'cancelled-out'.
6. BLM and Antifa frustrated enough over the postal failure that they'd burn down a hundred post office buildings? Carriers packing pistols?
7. Postal vehicles hijacked in the days prior to the election....stealing hundreds of thousands of votes?
There's some serious events coming out of this whole chaos.
Sunday, 16 August 2020
Biden to Harris Hand-Off
Tomorrow, Monday, the Democratic Convention will start up and a thirty-day window will occur where Joe Biden will have a health issue (maybe dementia is admitted....maybe a fake heart attack....etc), and Senator Harris moves up a notch. I've predicted this for about four months now.
It has to happen prior to the 29 September Presidential debate (the first debate).
Why Harris? I think Democratic leadership considers her the 'beast' of attacking people on stage in debates. The intent is to force three of these Harris-Trump debates to a vicious conclusion.
The sad thing here? You can go back to the 2019 Democratic Debates and find that Harris didn't really impress folks that much, and these appearances never improved her odds against Joe Biden (even in her home-state of California). So this national 'game' would be played out, and more folks disenchanted with her debate talents.
What Trump is running against at this point? It's not Joe Biden, or Senator Harris. Face it.....he's running against the political machine. There's hype going on that he might actually be getting serious votes out of NY City (the police union just advocated for him) and with all the defund the police efforts across the nation....he's probably got a gain of two to three million votes over 2016 results.
But here's the serious part of the discussion. For three decades.....the urban vote has been mostly Democrat....you can't find an urban area like NY City, SF, or Seattle that has voted Republican since the 1980s. This is what brought Bill Clinton and Barak Obama into office....while losing a substantial amount of rural county vote in the US.
There are seventeen counties in NY state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (with a majority). The remaining 45 counties voted in the majority for Donald Trump. A flip of one-million votes changing this outcome? I'd now say that all this Covid-19 business, anti-business values, and defund chatter....has accomplished the changeover. I think a million votes more for Trump is now possible in NY.
I'll even go out and predict the same issue now existing in Oregon, and there's a 100k vote change from 2016, and Trump might come very close in winning Oregon.
The same issue might exist in Washington (the state) as well....with fewer people attracted to the Libertarian Party this year, and defund-the-police chatter disturbing the locals around Seattle/Tacoma. Toss 150k votes off Hillary's results, and suddenly Trump has potential to win there in Washington.
Settle back and enjoy the next ten weeks, with all the theater hype of Biden disappearing and Harris as the front-runner.
It has to happen prior to the 29 September Presidential debate (the first debate).
Why Harris? I think Democratic leadership considers her the 'beast' of attacking people on stage in debates. The intent is to force three of these Harris-Trump debates to a vicious conclusion.
The sad thing here? You can go back to the 2019 Democratic Debates and find that Harris didn't really impress folks that much, and these appearances never improved her odds against Joe Biden (even in her home-state of California). So this national 'game' would be played out, and more folks disenchanted with her debate talents.
What Trump is running against at this point? It's not Joe Biden, or Senator Harris. Face it.....he's running against the political machine. There's hype going on that he might actually be getting serious votes out of NY City (the police union just advocated for him) and with all the defund the police efforts across the nation....he's probably got a gain of two to three million votes over 2016 results.
But here's the serious part of the discussion. For three decades.....the urban vote has been mostly Democrat....you can't find an urban area like NY City, SF, or Seattle that has voted Republican since the 1980s. This is what brought Bill Clinton and Barak Obama into office....while losing a substantial amount of rural county vote in the US.
There are seventeen counties in NY state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (with a majority). The remaining 45 counties voted in the majority for Donald Trump. A flip of one-million votes changing this outcome? I'd now say that all this Covid-19 business, anti-business values, and defund chatter....has accomplished the changeover. I think a million votes more for Trump is now possible in NY.
I'll even go out and predict the same issue now existing in Oregon, and there's a 100k vote change from 2016, and Trump might come very close in winning Oregon.
The same issue might exist in Washington (the state) as well....with fewer people attracted to the Libertarian Party this year, and defund-the-police chatter disturbing the locals around Seattle/Tacoma. Toss 150k votes off Hillary's results, and suddenly Trump has potential to win there in Washington.
Settle back and enjoy the next ten weeks, with all the theater hype of Biden disappearing and Harris as the front-runner.
Saturday, 15 August 2020
Boot-Camp
Today, 43 years ago, I would have been on day 12 of basic training. I don't count the 2nd of August because it was a travel day....to reach San Antonio.
In simple terms....it was extremely hot....and you appreciated any moment that you were in a shade.
This was the point where you started to actually count 'days-left' (roughly 43). We had ONE single calendar in the entire barracks (in Sarge's office). On night-duty, you'd walk through and gaze at the calendar.
By this point, you'd come to realize that chow didn't get any better or worse. You got use to either grilled ham-and-cheese sandwiches or burgers for lunch, and pineapple-upside-down cake.
You got used to 'lights-out' and a set bedtime.
You agreed with just about everyone about the crappy tasting water from the base.
You had figured out that virtually everyone from NY City seemed to be quiet pleasant and could entertain you for hours on descriptive details of the city.
You figured out that running a mile in Chukka-boots was not that bad. I should note, that was the first pair and last pair I ever 'owned'.
By this weekend, I had agreed to accompany the Catholic crowd over to services....to just see if there was anything exciting to their service. I came to note that there wasn't much to get excited about.
At this point, I gazed at my billfold, which I had taken around a hundred dollars as I left home, and they'd 'given' me another fifty-odd dollars upon arrival. Frankly, other than shoe polish, soap or can of Coke....you just weren't spending money on much of anything.
In simple terms....it was extremely hot....and you appreciated any moment that you were in a shade.
This was the point where you started to actually count 'days-left' (roughly 43). We had ONE single calendar in the entire barracks (in Sarge's office). On night-duty, you'd walk through and gaze at the calendar.
By this point, you'd come to realize that chow didn't get any better or worse. You got use to either grilled ham-and-cheese sandwiches or burgers for lunch, and pineapple-upside-down cake.
You got used to 'lights-out' and a set bedtime.
You agreed with just about everyone about the crappy tasting water from the base.
You had figured out that virtually everyone from NY City seemed to be quiet pleasant and could entertain you for hours on descriptive details of the city.
You figured out that running a mile in Chukka-boots was not that bad. I should note, that was the first pair and last pair I ever 'owned'.
By this weekend, I had agreed to accompany the Catholic crowd over to services....to just see if there was anything exciting to their service. I came to note that there wasn't much to get excited about.
At this point, I gazed at my billfold, which I had taken around a hundred dollars as I left home, and they'd 'given' me another fifty-odd dollars upon arrival. Frankly, other than shoe polish, soap or can of Coke....you just weren't spending money on much of anything.
2016 Election Period versus 2020 Election Period
Basically, ten observations:
1. Less trust and belief in the news media today, than four years ago. The 'mute-button' is more heavily used.
2. Almost zero trust in polling data, at present.
3. Hillary Clinton was out and about....very active in July and August, and only limited around 9-11 for that week of serious pneumonia. Joe Biden? Probably on appearances and speeches....doing 10-percent of what Hillary handled.
4. Tim Kaine (Hillary's VP) is almost forgotten today, and wasn't a big deal in 2016. Harris? She's carrying the entire campaign from this point forward.
5. Russian collusion chatter? Now, almost non-existent.
6. If you tested a hundred Americans, at least 70-percent know Joe's wife....mostly because she's the primary one on the campaign trail.
7. Antifa is basically flipping a minimum of a thousand-odd votes per day....from Joe Biden to Donald Trump. The BLM message is probably one of worst screw-ups in Democratic Party history.
8. The destruction of Minneapolis? It probably guaranteed Trump the state.
9. Thanks to CNN in both 2016 and 2020, most Europeans today firmly believe Joe Biden will win (90-plus percent chance).
10. There are really three candidates in the 2020 election: Biden, Trump, and Covid-19.
1. Less trust and belief in the news media today, than four years ago. The 'mute-button' is more heavily used.
2. Almost zero trust in polling data, at present.
3. Hillary Clinton was out and about....very active in July and August, and only limited around 9-11 for that week of serious pneumonia. Joe Biden? Probably on appearances and speeches....doing 10-percent of what Hillary handled.
4. Tim Kaine (Hillary's VP) is almost forgotten today, and wasn't a big deal in 2016. Harris? She's carrying the entire campaign from this point forward.
5. Russian collusion chatter? Now, almost non-existent.
6. If you tested a hundred Americans, at least 70-percent know Joe's wife....mostly because she's the primary one on the campaign trail.
7. Antifa is basically flipping a minimum of a thousand-odd votes per day....from Joe Biden to Donald Trump. The BLM message is probably one of worst screw-ups in Democratic Party history.
8. The destruction of Minneapolis? It probably guaranteed Trump the state.
9. Thanks to CNN in both 2016 and 2020, most Europeans today firmly believe Joe Biden will win (90-plus percent chance).
10. There are really three candidates in the 2020 election: Biden, Trump, and Covid-19.
Friday, 14 August 2020
$3.5-Billion for Mail-in Balloting?
Yeah....this is the package that Congress has presented to the President....to hand the $3.5-billion to the 50 states to conduct the mail-in deal.
Why so much? Unknown. No one can stand there with a straight face and explain why it's such a nice 'round' number.
The cost of the two stamps (mailing you the ballot and you returning the ballot)? $1.10.
The odds here that almost $300-million will be wasted on double or triple voters? Don't even bother bringing up that problem.
Let's be honest here....probably half of all voters don't trust the mail-in deal and refuse to participate....so they are wasting $1.10 up front for about 70-odd million voters.
If this is not agreed upon? Well....no $3.5-billion and if you (as a state) get deep into this....you'd have to go borrow at least $150-million minimum....maybe even up to $300-million. Which idiot bank will loan you that money? The one wanting a significant interest deal?
The deeper you go into the mail-in-vote deal....the more corrupted it looks.
Why so much? Unknown. No one can stand there with a straight face and explain why it's such a nice 'round' number.
The cost of the two stamps (mailing you the ballot and you returning the ballot)? $1.10.
The odds here that almost $300-million will be wasted on double or triple voters? Don't even bother bringing up that problem.
Let's be honest here....probably half of all voters don't trust the mail-in deal and refuse to participate....so they are wasting $1.10 up front for about 70-odd million voters.
If this is not agreed upon? Well....no $3.5-billion and if you (as a state) get deep into this....you'd have to go borrow at least $150-million minimum....maybe even up to $300-million. Which idiot bank will loan you that money? The one wanting a significant interest deal?
The deeper you go into the mail-in-vote deal....the more corrupted it looks.
The Odds that Senator Harris Is Already Reviewing a VP List?
I'd give it 50-50 odds.
As Joe steps aside, either in the weeks to come, or after the election 'win'....Harris probably has a list made up already of individuals for her VP choice, and for the cabinet itself.
I wouldn't even see a problem in admitting such a list exists.
Would the new VP have to be a white male? Yes, some idiot probably has already made up the rules list, and it has to be a white male over the age of sixty (figure NY Governor Andrew Cuomo).
As Joe steps aside, either in the weeks to come, or after the election 'win'....Harris probably has a list made up already of individuals for her VP choice, and for the cabinet itself.
I wouldn't even see a problem in admitting such a list exists.
Would the new VP have to be a white male? Yes, some idiot probably has already made up the rules list, and it has to be a white male over the age of sixty (figure NY Governor Andrew Cuomo).
Death Chatter
So this topic came up today and it's worth five minutes pondering.Primarydoctor.org did the graphic (Colleen Huber, NMD).
Basically, it covers ALL US deaths each year since 2000, set to a limit of the first 32 weeks of each year. That means violent deaths, cancer deaths, and even suicidal deaths.
Most years, it averages out around 2.5-million to 2.8-million deaths a year. For Huber to reach a correct dataset.....she cut off each year's data at 32 weeks....in order to compare against 2020. So you aren't looking at full year data....simply 32-week data for each year.
2020 numbers? We are at 1.6-million....NOT 2.5-million as you'd have in a normal number situation.
Yes, roughly a million deaths haven't occurred on schedule.
(a long, long pause at this point)
We are missing around 1-million deaths, if you look at the plain numbers.
Will it catch up? Maybe more deaths occur around Thanksgiving and Christmas? Well....there's no factual data to support that.
So I'm going to suggest four radical thoughts here:
1. Because of the lock-down business....folks simply didn't travel as much and have car accidents.
2. Because bars and pubs were shutdown a good bit.....DWI deaths didn't occur as you'd expect.
3. Because most elective surgery procedures were cancelled into April and still today....folks are hesitant to enter a hospital. So infections didn't occur, or screw-ups at the hospitals.
4. Because school events were cancelled out, fewer teen deaths were recorded via car accidents.
Even with Covid-19 deaths.....it doesn't seem to really help inflate our numbers. At the end of 2020? It might be the lowest 'death' number year of the past forty-odd years.
Yeah....it's one of those moments when you open up a bottle of fine whiskey, and sit on the patio....sipping, contemplating the numbers, and viewing the strange arrangement we have set up for 2020.
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