Thursday 7 March 2019

Impeachment Scenario 1 and 2

These are my scenarios, which could fall into play.

1.  The House wastes most of 2019 on hearings and then shortly before Christmas, and the primary season...they send the impeachment package to the Senate.  The Senate spends 45 days calling witnesses and doing their hearing, in the midst of primary season. 

In the red states (the thirty that voted for Trump)....there's open hostility, and they are still full turbo for Trump. 

The Senate eventually finds 51 votes (with several GOP figures voting against Trump), and then removes him from office.  Pence is declared the President.

Trump refuses to sit down from the campaign and continues to engage.....find tens of millions arriving weekly from working-class supporters.  The convention?  Various GOP pretenders try to halt Trump and find that the public is now openly hostile, and the five GOP senators that voted for impeachment.....are now having police protection around the clock.

Eventually in November....impeached Trump beats Bernie or the Democratic contender. 

The Democrats and the news media sit there in shock.....finding that over 100 Democratic seats were lost from the House, and an overwhelming number of votes for Trump came out of this mess.

2.  The Houses wastes most of 2019 on hearings and then shortly before Christmas, and the primary season...they send the impeachment package to the Senate.  The Senate spends 45 days calling witnesses and doing their hearing, in the midst of primary season. 

In the red states (the thirty that voted for Trump)....there's open hostility, and they are still full turbo for Trump. 

The Senate then finds 51 votes in voting down the impeachment.  The Democrats think the embarrassment is enough to dissolve votes for Trump in November.  They misjudge the public frustration, and an overwhelming number of voters show up, and Trump wins easily.  Going into 2021?  The Democrats lose 80 to 100 seats in the House election, and there's nothing left for them to really slam Trump.  One out of every ten Democrats now say they'd like to leave the party and create a new group, or follow the Green Party.

The worst of the two scenarios?  Number one....having Trump come back and continue the election effort and drill down into massive anger from conservative voters at pretender-Republican Senators.

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