Six months ago, I would have said 99.9-percent that Joe Biden would run in the primary, with RFK being one of the few going against him.
In the past month, if you view campaign chatter, people showing up at Joe's rallies, the cocaine business, and continual suggestions of bribes....the news folks are having a problem in convincing the public of avoiding skepticism over Joe's campaign.
So, who are the likely 'dark-horses' to appear (besides RFK)?
First, there's Governor Newsom of California. He's go problems because of the exit issues going on in the state.
Second, is VP Harris....who simply doesn't have positive numbers with the general public.
Third, Stacy Abrams, I believe....has a long-shot at the situation.
Fourth, Mayor-Pete, another long-shot.
Fifth, Governor Whitmer of Michigan.
Sixth, Michelle Obama.
The general problem, when compared to past elections? Skepticism. If you add up numbers of people reading the NY Times, WaPo, or viewing CNN...it's pretty crappy.
Avoidance of debates? The problem here.....for the DNC to keep RFK out of the 'light'....you'd have to have someone to quickly 'waltz in' and take Joe's numbers, and then keep insisting there is no necessity for debate or having a other people in the race.
RFK attracting attention from independent voters? Well....that's a big problem now.
The Democrats need the independent voters in November, but not in the primary.
Can Trump win the primary with three-quarters of the independent voters skipping his primary episode, and going to RFK's vote? I'd say yes.
In some funny way, I think Biden is now in a must-run situation. But polling by the fall will reflect RFK probably tied or passing Biden. So then what? Would Biden step aside in January and admit he can't win the primary? That is the big question.
4 comments:
This would be the time a long shot like a Jimmy Carter Type would step in. Some unknow without the baggage of the ones listed above.
Not many blue state governors left in the south anymore.
Your list of blue-state governors with potential: Louisiana-John Bel Edwards....marginal candidate. Kentucky-Beshear...marginal candidate. North Carolina-Cooper....gets mentioned occasionally. Maryland-Moore....probably six years from being taken serious.
Beyond Newsom and Whitmer....it's the weakest group of candidate possible folks in 30 years.
Added to this burden, lowest viewership of network news or readership of NY Times/WaPo, with no podcast support existing except these dumbass tiktok kids hired by Biden's team. RFK has a clear shot to pass Biden by this fall.
It's the wildest scenario one can dream up...a Kennedy arriving fifty years later.
I have a theory:
* If we know their names, they are puppets.
The puppet-masters are and will remain anonymous.
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