You could write a 500 page epic story over where Venezuela went wrong, but I'll try to limit this to three central causes:
1. In 1989 to 1993, there were some woeful economic downfalls, with some folks ending up dead in the chaos. The two coups in 1992 by Hugo Chavez....connected to the economic period. Chavez failed in the coups (six to eight months apart). But the damage was started at this point. Confidence in democracy was a problem, and corruption was s national issue.
2. In 1999, Hugo Chavez arrives. Chavez thinks he's a wise at government, economics, commerce, banking, etc. He declines any and all advice....taking mostly advice from the inner circle. Redistribution of wealth and ownership became his central theme. Literally every single bit of wealth that did exist....got siphoned off and redistributed. In 2013.....Hugo passes away. Some folks had this idea that the country would have some coup, and somehow find it's path back to stability. They were wrong.
3. In 2013, Nicolás Maduro arrives, via an election, and the Chavez era continues with more redistribution. The chief item Maduro's resume that suggested where things were going to go? For one year of his life....he was a bus driver.
The correction situation today? Well....there's no more wealth to redistribute. Anyone who had money left....moved it beyond the border. Stores are mostly empty. People were reported in 2018 to have lost a minimum of 10 pounds over the year because there's simply nothing left to eat. It took thirty years, but it's pretty much wrapped up.....they spent everyone's cash.
Thursday, 24 January 2019
The Give and Take Problem
"The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else."
-- Adrian Rogers
I rarely quote ministers, but I sat and reflected upon this recent commentary for a 75-percent tax situation for the ultra rich by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) (AOC). I eventually came to this quote which really lays out a frustrating part of the taxation gimmick.
It used to be that the government simply provided simply freedoms (at least in the 1776 mentality). Then the government came to provide protection against invasion....requiring a standing Army. Then the government reached a stage where taxation was necessary because of the various services being provided (roads, bridges, education, etc). Then the government took on social 'corrections' and got into housing and healthcare for the elderly. Then the government got into university loan situations where vast sums of money were given for sometimes worthless degrees. So now the government (by AOC's insight) would go and become the fair distributor of wealth.
Someone from the government (if the AOC proposition continues on and becomes reality) will sit and make a determination about who is reasonably wealthy and overly wealthy. A guy making $100,000 a year? He's probably safe. A guy making $500,000 a year? He's probably in the threshold of being in the 75-percent taxation racket. A guy making $1-million a year or more.....he'll be in the 75-percent tax racket for sure.
At some point, if all this redistribution and taxation business fell into place (assuming in the next decade).....you would see a dramatic drop in business growth, and probably view the unemployment rate climbing to around 10-percent nationally.....as businessmen got smart and just downsized. Why bother taking risks or making money? It would take around a year for everyone to wake up and realize that instead of resolving/fixing things....this gimmick of 'give and take' delivered some incredible negativity to the economy.
At that point, the voters would turn to President AOC....asking for an explanation. And she'd have to admit she really didn't know much about economics or business.
Wednesday, 23 January 2019
Bob Lazar and the Area 51 UFO Story
For years I debated about the Bob Lazar story and how the pieces fell or failed to fall into place. Bob says in his youth....after college studies at Cal Tech and MIT....he was hired on with some company that dealt with the government studies of UFOs outside of Vegas. Somewhere along about a year into this.....Bob screwed up and apparently brought friends onto the Area 51 grounds, got into trouble, got fired, and then decided that he wanted to admit to the world about the whole thing. Along the way, Bob says that both Cal Tech and MIT wiped out his records and they say he officially doesn't exist in their records.
A lot of what Bob talks about in interviews does suggest a vast knowledge of science....there's no doubt about that.
In the last couple of years, Stanton Friedman (a real physicist), went out and decided to review Bob's whole story. Stanton says virtually every single potential avenue was studied via Cal Tech and MIT. Bob has no existence there. At some point, Bob volunteers one single name of a professor via Cal Tech. So Stanton goes looking for this guy.
Oddly enough, this professor remember Bob. But there's one problem. The professor ONLY taught at a regional community college in California......NEVER at Cal Tech.
So Stanton decides to go back to the high school were Bob attended. Oddly enough, they remember Bob. So they pull out the records and there's some chat. Bob didn't finish even in the top 50-percent of the class. What they remember about Bob was that he was really into chemistry and science. What other subjects did Bob study? Well.....just science subjects. That's it.
After looking over the various interviews and stories told of Bob and Area 51....I've come to this conclusion. Bob has Paranoid Schizophrenia...to the extent that he believes in a particular disillusion. Oh I admit....Bob is super-smart on science topics and probably has read a hundred times more science journals than the average smart-guy. But he relates these bits of science knowledge into this delusional world that he lives in.....believing he was a MIT and Cal Tech graduation....that he was hired by some corporation to work at Area 51....that he brought friends out to the secure reservation area....and that all of this UFO chatter is true.
He's not inventing a hoax. He could easily pass the lie-detector test because he actually believes in the delusional side of this. If you go and review the statistical data....the PhD folks estimate that around 10-percent of people are in some phase of Paranoid Schizophrenia. My guess is that you can break the crowd up into different groups.....where some can drift in and out, and some who are living the delusional life to 100-percent.
The problem here is that people generally want to believe in the alien chatter to such a degree....that when you have a guy with a smart mind and clever enough to build his story up.....the Paranoid Schizophrenia isn't apparent, and you put full faith in the whole story. Bob is real....believing precisely in his Area 51 story, and absolutely believes that he holds degrees from MIT and Cal Tech. He's not a fake....or a hoaxer....he's just telling you precisely what he imagines.
A lot of what Bob talks about in interviews does suggest a vast knowledge of science....there's no doubt about that.
In the last couple of years, Stanton Friedman (a real physicist), went out and decided to review Bob's whole story. Stanton says virtually every single potential avenue was studied via Cal Tech and MIT. Bob has no existence there. At some point, Bob volunteers one single name of a professor via Cal Tech. So Stanton goes looking for this guy.
Oddly enough, this professor remember Bob. But there's one problem. The professor ONLY taught at a regional community college in California......NEVER at Cal Tech.
So Stanton decides to go back to the high school were Bob attended. Oddly enough, they remember Bob. So they pull out the records and there's some chat. Bob didn't finish even in the top 50-percent of the class. What they remember about Bob was that he was really into chemistry and science. What other subjects did Bob study? Well.....just science subjects. That's it.
After looking over the various interviews and stories told of Bob and Area 51....I've come to this conclusion. Bob has Paranoid Schizophrenia...to the extent that he believes in a particular disillusion. Oh I admit....Bob is super-smart on science topics and probably has read a hundred times more science journals than the average smart-guy. But he relates these bits of science knowledge into this delusional world that he lives in.....believing he was a MIT and Cal Tech graduation....that he was hired by some corporation to work at Area 51....that he brought friends out to the secure reservation area....and that all of this UFO chatter is true.
He's not inventing a hoax. He could easily pass the lie-detector test because he actually believes in the delusional side of this. If you go and review the statistical data....the PhD folks estimate that around 10-percent of people are in some phase of Paranoid Schizophrenia. My guess is that you can break the crowd up into different groups.....where some can drift in and out, and some who are living the delusional life to 100-percent.
The problem here is that people generally want to believe in the alien chatter to such a degree....that when you have a guy with a smart mind and clever enough to build his story up.....the Paranoid Schizophrenia isn't apparent, and you put full faith in the whole story. Bob is real....believing precisely in his Area 51 story, and absolutely believes that he holds degrees from MIT and Cal Tech. He's not a fake....or a hoaxer....he's just telling you precisely what he imagines.
Kentucky Justice
As the smoke starts to clear on this media frenzy that occurred last week with the Covington School episode, and the Indian guy....things appear to be falling in place.
Rob Sanders, the county prosecutor, was interviewed and basically said yesterday.....yes, he's preparing charges against everyone who made a threat against the kids or the school. Kentucky has this law about making a 'terroristic threat'. Jail-time and fines are possible.
So how would this go?
The prosecution team prepares folders with Twitter/Facebook ID's and locations. They prepare paperwork and serve on this poor dimwit. Across the nation, these get served. People start laughing, with no intention of getting serious.
Rob prepares paperwork to have those not getting serious to be detained and brought to Kentucky. Yep, added cost burden on the guilty folks.
Those real serious about the matter will call a Kentucky lawyer, and end up having to pay at least $5,000 to get the easy deal. I would speculate that the prosecution will offer up a suspended 6-month sentence in jail, you agree to terminate your social media account for two years, pay court costs (likely to be in the $5k range), and a fine (likely to be $500 to $3,000).
Those pretending to skip around this? They will be arrested and dragged to Kentucky, and added court cost will fall into place, with added defense lawyer cost (figure $10,000). Then you go into another negotiation moment....with a bulked up court cost situation (maybe over $15,000). You could also add on a charge of failure to respond, giving them 30 days in the county jail. The judge might even offer a deal where you get a leg-tracker, and agree to stay in a local hotel for 30 days (boosting up local revenue that way).
This second scenario would mean you have to find at least $30,000 to handle two or three lines of stupid texting to convey a threat.
The prosecution team probably would go through at least a thousand folks....but this might even go up into the ten-thousand range. Imagine all that cash flowing into defense attorneys and the county commission revenue bucket. You could be talking about a million dollars a month flowing into the fines bucket.
I'm just sitting there and shaking my head....all of those 'angry' people lack any appreciation for court activity. Well....this is the new reality. Welcome to Kentucky justice.
Rob Sanders, the county prosecutor, was interviewed and basically said yesterday.....yes, he's preparing charges against everyone who made a threat against the kids or the school. Kentucky has this law about making a 'terroristic threat'. Jail-time and fines are possible.
So how would this go?
The prosecution team prepares folders with Twitter/Facebook ID's and locations. They prepare paperwork and serve on this poor dimwit. Across the nation, these get served. People start laughing, with no intention of getting serious.
Rob prepares paperwork to have those not getting serious to be detained and brought to Kentucky. Yep, added cost burden on the guilty folks.
Those real serious about the matter will call a Kentucky lawyer, and end up having to pay at least $5,000 to get the easy deal. I would speculate that the prosecution will offer up a suspended 6-month sentence in jail, you agree to terminate your social media account for two years, pay court costs (likely to be in the $5k range), and a fine (likely to be $500 to $3,000).
Those pretending to skip around this? They will be arrested and dragged to Kentucky, and added court cost will fall into place, with added defense lawyer cost (figure $10,000). Then you go into another negotiation moment....with a bulked up court cost situation (maybe over $15,000). You could also add on a charge of failure to respond, giving them 30 days in the county jail. The judge might even offer a deal where you get a leg-tracker, and agree to stay in a local hotel for 30 days (boosting up local revenue that way).
This second scenario would mean you have to find at least $30,000 to handle two or three lines of stupid texting to convey a threat.
The prosecution team probably would go through at least a thousand folks....but this might even go up into the ten-thousand range. Imagine all that cash flowing into defense attorneys and the county commission revenue bucket. You could be talking about a million dollars a month flowing into the fines bucket.
I'm just sitting there and shaking my head....all of those 'angry' people lack any appreciation for court activity. Well....this is the new reality. Welcome to Kentucky justice.
Sunday, 20 January 2019
2020 Democratic Primary and 15-Odd 'Players'
What happens if you have 15-odd individuals running in the Democratic primary next spring? You can anticipate four conditions occurring:
1. For the most part, six of them will be gone by the fourth primary. Cash-wise, from 12 May on (a total of 12 left)....it'll be down to just three candidates.
2. The overwhelming odds are that no one will have sufficient votes to win an outright convention deal.
3. The VIP votes at the primary will then go and pull on who they favor....even if it's the number two or three candidate.
4. The odds are heavily fixed that the convention winner won't be someone really capable of taking on Trump.....even if the journalists say otherwise.
The two characters that I think could beat Trump? Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. But at this point, neither appear to be lined up to run. Maybe I'm wrong.
1. For the most part, six of them will be gone by the fourth primary. Cash-wise, from 12 May on (a total of 12 left)....it'll be down to just three candidates.
2. The overwhelming odds are that no one will have sufficient votes to win an outright convention deal.
3. The VIP votes at the primary will then go and pull on who they favor....even if it's the number two or three candidate.
4. The odds are heavily fixed that the convention winner won't be someone really capable of taking on Trump.....even if the journalists say otherwise.
The two characters that I think could beat Trump? Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. But at this point, neither appear to be lined up to run. Maybe I'm wrong.
How I'd Repair Immigration
Trump seems to have a plan, and a few other GOP guys suggest some alternate ideas. Democrats? It's best not to ask them, because officially.....there is no plan.
So this is my ten point-plan.
1. The wall gets built.
2. I remove all US Army troops from Europe, and deploy them to five staging areas or Army posts in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. At least fifteen-thousand would be assigned a simple task of patrol and recon. The US Border Patrol folks would continue to exist and be the arresting agent for all collected 'crossers'.
3. I'd establish six to ten containment villages along the border and this is where everyone gets taken. You stay there until your future situation (where you go) is determined. Kids, parents, etc.....it won't matter. At least two US Senators (one GOP, one Democrat) will be required to visit these camps each month. It'll be a rotating duty for the US Senators.
4. A simplified visa/work-permit will be created. You declare yourself, and show some form of native land ID (it must be valid). You show that you've been in the US prior to 1 January 2018. You swear that you have not registered to vote in any US election. You demonstrate that you haven't been convicted of any felony in the time that you've been in the US, or arrested for drug-related charges. The visa/work-permit will be issued and good for five years. It'll re-issued every five years as long as you don't vote or get convicted of any felony. After ten years of demonstrated good behavior....you can apply for citizenship.
5. Any non-American who gets the visa/work-permit, and completes three years of US Army time (including the reserves) will be given a fast-pace situation to citizenship.
6. If you are the manager of a US business and found to have hired non-American and non-visa immigrants, you get detained for criminal charges. The minimum for jail-time is 90 days, or a payment for each non-visa employee of $10,000 to the local state authority.
7. Any non-American and non-visa holding individual arrested for drug trafficking.....is kept on hold until the trial case comes up. If convicted, you will serve your time in prison (preferably your home-country) and when released....if you are ever found on US soil...it'll be an immediate disposal to your home country.
8. No driving license will be valid or issued to any non-American unless you hold a visa or work-permit. Across the front of the license.....will be some wording to the effect 'not eligible to vote'.
9. No foreign students will be allowed to stay in the US more than 90 days after anticipated graduation of their school situation....unless you complete a work-permit or visa application. Anyone with an advanced degree who applies, will be given a higher priority for the visa or work-permit. Anyone with a PhD will be given the fast-track (in two years) to be given US citizenship.
10. Any non-American and non-visa/non-work-permit individual found to have voted illegally in the US....will be released back to the nation and forbidden any permit or visa for a period of ten years.
So this is my ten point-plan.
1. The wall gets built.
2. I remove all US Army troops from Europe, and deploy them to five staging areas or Army posts in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. At least fifteen-thousand would be assigned a simple task of patrol and recon. The US Border Patrol folks would continue to exist and be the arresting agent for all collected 'crossers'.
3. I'd establish six to ten containment villages along the border and this is where everyone gets taken. You stay there until your future situation (where you go) is determined. Kids, parents, etc.....it won't matter. At least two US Senators (one GOP, one Democrat) will be required to visit these camps each month. It'll be a rotating duty for the US Senators.
4. A simplified visa/work-permit will be created. You declare yourself, and show some form of native land ID (it must be valid). You show that you've been in the US prior to 1 January 2018. You swear that you have not registered to vote in any US election. You demonstrate that you haven't been convicted of any felony in the time that you've been in the US, or arrested for drug-related charges. The visa/work-permit will be issued and good for five years. It'll re-issued every five years as long as you don't vote or get convicted of any felony. After ten years of demonstrated good behavior....you can apply for citizenship.
5. Any non-American who gets the visa/work-permit, and completes three years of US Army time (including the reserves) will be given a fast-pace situation to citizenship.
6. If you are the manager of a US business and found to have hired non-American and non-visa immigrants, you get detained for criminal charges. The minimum for jail-time is 90 days, or a payment for each non-visa employee of $10,000 to the local state authority.
7. Any non-American and non-visa holding individual arrested for drug trafficking.....is kept on hold until the trial case comes up. If convicted, you will serve your time in prison (preferably your home-country) and when released....if you are ever found on US soil...it'll be an immediate disposal to your home country.
8. No driving license will be valid or issued to any non-American unless you hold a visa or work-permit. Across the front of the license.....will be some wording to the effect 'not eligible to vote'.
9. No foreign students will be allowed to stay in the US more than 90 days after anticipated graduation of their school situation....unless you complete a work-permit or visa application. Anyone with an advanced degree who applies, will be given a higher priority for the visa or work-permit. Anyone with a PhD will be given the fast-track (in two years) to be given US citizenship.
10. Any non-American and non-visa/non-work-permit individual found to have voted illegally in the US....will be released back to the nation and forbidden any permit or visa for a period of ten years.
Saturday, 19 January 2019
In the Fake World of Toxicness
This week, I sat and watched a clip off YouTube of this new Gillette ad that folks are discussing a good bit. The theme? Bad boy-men who seem to be 'bullies' of some type, and they needed to be knocked down a step.
So I pondered over what is a Procter and Gamble brand and wondered about the effort of advertising.
The sad thing is that I've been a Gillette user since probably August 1977 (when I went off to boot-camp). The electric razor wasn't practical there, and the only cheap razors that the BX Shoppette offered....was Gillette. Even today, their offer is limited to Gillette, a off-brand for the BX made by Gillette, or BIC. For those who've never used BIC.....it's a lousy razor of low-quality, and you usually end up with a dozen cuts.
So, back to the commercial. My interpretation is that someone on the ad-team built the original concept, which would have flowed in a positive way. At some point, someone else advanced in the ad-team, and built it to have some message that advanced toxic behavior, and in the end.....you have an advertising moment which became a political hit-piece.
My guess is that Procter and Gamble, with Gillette.....are standing there now and realizing that something really went wrong in the purchase of the ad. You can't really take it down without admitting you screwed up.....but you dislike the negative attention.
Will guys stop using Gillette? I would suggest some number (probably in the 20-percent range) are leaving Gillette. The sad thing is that they have a superior product and this ad wasn't needed.
But there is other question laying there. If men's behavior was 'bad'.....shouldn't the Ford pick-up division run the same type ad? Or how about the NFL? Or how about Bud? Or how about the chain-saw folks? Harley-Davidson?
So I pondered over what is a Procter and Gamble brand and wondered about the effort of advertising.
The sad thing is that I've been a Gillette user since probably August 1977 (when I went off to boot-camp). The electric razor wasn't practical there, and the only cheap razors that the BX Shoppette offered....was Gillette. Even today, their offer is limited to Gillette, a off-brand for the BX made by Gillette, or BIC. For those who've never used BIC.....it's a lousy razor of low-quality, and you usually end up with a dozen cuts.
So, back to the commercial. My interpretation is that someone on the ad-team built the original concept, which would have flowed in a positive way. At some point, someone else advanced in the ad-team, and built it to have some message that advanced toxic behavior, and in the end.....you have an advertising moment which became a political hit-piece.
My guess is that Procter and Gamble, with Gillette.....are standing there now and realizing that something really went wrong in the purchase of the ad. You can't really take it down without admitting you screwed up.....but you dislike the negative attention.
Will guys stop using Gillette? I would suggest some number (probably in the 20-percent range) are leaving Gillette. The sad thing is that they have a superior product and this ad wasn't needed.
But there is other question laying there. If men's behavior was 'bad'.....shouldn't the Ford pick-up division run the same type ad? Or how about the NFL? Or how about Bud? Or how about the chain-saw folks? Harley-Davidson?
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