Tuesday 19 May 2020

CNN and the Depression 'Idea'

CNN had a article that they put up yesterday, and the main focus was.....we are in the midst of a depression (1930s style).

So I spent a long 24 hours thinking about this.  First, they meant in terms of emotions...NOT money issues or failing banks. 

That\s the first real problem with this discussion.  You can't find any banks or financial institutions (like in 2008) that are failing.  It would be correct to say that hundreds of thousands of folks are not paying their mortgage, and this could lead to bank issues. 

As for the rest of this?  Think about this odd aspect.....roughly 25 states are opening up and back into business, with some problems.  The other 25 states?  In various levels of bans/shut-downs.  If you were leaning toward distress of a depression....it'd depend on which state you live in.

An odd aspect of this discussion.....in the1930s era, people moved to California.  In this modern era, people are discussing leaving California. 

In the 1930s era depression....the heartland of America survived on.  You kinda see the same landscape in 2020.

So what do you really need to convince you of a depression era, in terms of emotions?  Well...you need a daily dose of negative news (getting up, driving to work, lunch-hour, driving home, and sitting on the couch during the evening).  Lucky for you.....you can get that.

If all of this were true, who would you need to rebuild or restructure the nation to meet the problem?  That's the problem, this imaginary FDR-democrat doesn't exist.  And to be honest, Trump probably fits this role better than anyone imagined.  If you were to peel off the layers of FDR and Trump.....then Trump is the anti-FDR.  Almost every action that the FDR-team performed....ensured the long-term survival of a chained-down America and handcuffed to a government for its survival.  That's not the Trump type behavior....if anything, he's anti-big-government.

About a dozen years ago, Amity Shlaes wrote a book entitled 'The Forgotten Man', which covers the whole era of the 1920s and 1930s.  It's the history that the college professors marginally covered, and that journalists rarely ever discuss today.  I strong recommend the book, because it puts you at the very beginning of the depression era, and then lays out the decade behind the era. 

I will leave you with these three thoughts:

1.  For some folks, it's a rough year ahead, and they will be distraught/fragile during this period.  Don't shy away from stepping up and providing encouragement.  Admit it in a blunt way.....we aren't focused, and we are allowing poor leadership to lead us to a perception that the nation is weak.  It is not weak.....it never has been, and never will be.

2.  For the crowd chatter that tells you of the approaching negative era.....ask yourself, what type of character are they trying to sell you upon....to replace Trump?  Is this the character that you'd trust to lead or simply make things worse?

3.  Finally, FDR basically wanted you extremely dependent upon some form of government in the end.  Is that what you really desire now?  Some government to dictate your success or failure? 

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